Brittany Lockley

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NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to forecast fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than what is typically seen during an average year.&nbsp;Forecasters say the overall pattern across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans still supports a quieter season. The ongoing influence of El Niño is expected to create stronger upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for developing tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085032-1786027844121.png">NOAA continues to predict&nbsp;7 to 13 named storms&nbsp;this season. Of those,&nbsp;2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, while&nbsp;0 to 2&nbsp;could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.&nbsp;<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2085374878392172899" src="https://x.com/NOAA/status/2085374878392172899/photo/2"></div>The agency says there is a&nbsp;75% chance of a below-average season, a&nbsp;20% chance of near-average activity, and only a&nbsp;5% chance of an above-average season.&nbsp;Although the season has been relatively quiet, with only two Gulf storms in the Atlantic basin thus far (Arthur &amp; Bertha), NOAA&nbsp;cautions that the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning. Historically, tropical activity ramps up in August and peaks around mid-September before gradually declining through the fall.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085119-1786027891236.png">NOAA also reminds residents that seasonal forecasts are meant to estimate the total number of storms, not where they will track. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to produce significant damage and life-threatening impacts, regardless of whether the season ends below average.&nbsp;With several months remaining in hurricane season, emergency officials encourage people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to have a hurricane plan in place, review evacuation routes, and keep emergency supplies ready in case a storm threatens their area.&nbsp;

Rob Bradley

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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As a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the Southwest and Southern Plains, cold fronts will continue to ride around the ridge into the Midwest and Northeast, keeping these areas of the country stormy. Multiple fronts will track through the Midwest over the next few days, bringing shifting chances for severe storms and heavy downpours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 085144-1786114314393.png">While cooler and drier air will move in briefly behind the fronts, warmth and moisture will rebuild quickly to the south, leading to plenty of instability for severe storms. The outlooks shift a bit each day (top of page), depending on where the fronts are located. Damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards. A few isolated tornadoes are possible too!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/BARON 5-1786155264308.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Storms are possible any time of day, but look more active in the afternoons and evenings. As is the case with many summertime thunderstorms, big clusters of storms may form (known as an MCS) which can persist well into the overnight hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786155304260.png">While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, pockets of heavy rainfall are expected. Totals upwards of 3-4 inches are possible, with isolated to scattered flash flooding possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786155335277.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786155357429.png">

Jesse Kelley

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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A series of frontal systems will keep the Northeast active with storms and heavy rainfall chances into the weekend. As a front approaches the coast on Saturday, scattered severe storms are expected with damaging winds possible. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially in urban areas.<h2>HEAT ALERTS</h2>Warm southerly flow around the Bermuda high in the Western Atlantic is keep the coast hot and humid for Saturday. Heat alerts have been issued where heat index values will range between 95 - 105° F. Take breaks from the sun in shade or air conditioning and be sure to drink lots of water!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786155496083.png"><h2>FORECAST</h2>Friday's storms did produce several areas of damaging winds and flooding across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. In the Northeast, wind gusts topped out to 58 mph in Pennsylvania. Saturday, more scattered storms are possible out ahead of the cold front that could lead to more gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The best timing for the severe storms will occur during the afternoon and evening hours. Front should clear most of the Northeast on Sunday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/BARON 5-1786155880921.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL</h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786156001691.png">Rainfall totals don't appear off the charts, but with already saturated grounds, the flooding risk is certainly here.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786156033794.png">For more on this and any flood or severe alerts in your area, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

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Tracey Anthony

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A large area of high pressure continues to bring the heat across the United States. Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect across the western U.S. Find ways to stay cool and stay out of the sunshine.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic4-1786154571293.png">HEAT RISKSIn addition to the heat alerts, the Heat Risk is up to major to extreme levels, especially across the southwest. This means that the heat will be dangerous for everyone, even if you're used to the desert heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786154687246.png"><h1>Southwest</h1>Outside of Coastal California, the heat will be on this weekend. Temperatures will be above-average for many cities across the Southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786155264060.png"><h1>Northwest</h1>Temperatures across the interior Northwest will spike over the next few days as well, with heat alerts issued across the Interstate 5 corridor. Smoke from nearby wildfires is expected to filter some sunshine out and curb temperatures by a degree or two, but won't keep some from threatening the century mark again.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786155094826.png">These temperatures across the northwest will also affect firefighter efforts to get wildfires in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho under control. More on the fires burning in the northwest: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/pacific-northwest-fires-bringing-down-the-air-quality">Spokane Complex Fire Continues to Burn</a>.For everyone across the country dealing with the intense heat, practice heat safety, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated as best as you can in the days to come. The longer-range outlook for temperatures from August 11 - 15 has higher confidence that temperatures will remain above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 195401-1785981245479.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Patrick Crawford

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

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SPOKANE, WA - On Saturday, August 1st, the Old Trails Fire ignited northwest of Spokane. This fire was fueled by hot, dry conditions and wind gusts up to 45 mph, which helped the fire spread rapidly through grass and brush before reaching neighborhoods. The fire eventually crossed the Spokane River, creating additional challenges for firefighters.UPDATE: The cause still remains under investigation, but a convicted felon has been arrested on an arson charge as the primary suspect for starting the Old Trails Fire near Spokane.<h3>Impacts:</h3><ul><li>The Spokane Area fires, consisting of the Autumn Lane, Old Trails, and Fairview fires, have burned 10,436 acres</li><li>Containment: Autumn Lane 37%, Old Trails 23%, and Fairview 31%</li><li>Thousands of residents remain under evacuation orders</li><li>Approximately 800+ structures have been destroyed, and thousands more are threatened</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 194958-1785981012796.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2084640508320854421" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2084640508320854421"></div>The Governor of Washington, Bob Ferguson, has declared a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://governor.wa.gov/news/2026/governor-ferguson-declares-statewide-wildfire-emergency-issues-statewide-burn-ban">statewide wildfire emergency</a>, including a statewide burn ban due to the current drought conditions, high temperatures, and high winds. The President has also approved an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20260804/president-donald-j-trump-approves-emergency-declaration-washington">emergency declaration</a> for Washington, providing federal disaster assistance to supplement response efforts due to emergency conditions resulting in these wildfires.<h2>Forecast Ahead</h2>Winds will increase in the forecast on Friday and Saturday, prompting new fire weather alerts across the northwest. Red Flag Warnings are in place for portions of the Northwest and Northern Four Corners.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786068617168.png">Residents should have a go bag packed and an evacuation plan in place in case evacuation orders expand into their area. If your community is placed under an evacuation order, leave immediately and follow instructions from local emergency officials.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-02 163825-1785710315388.png"><h2>Air Quality</h2>Smoke from the ongoing wildfires has prompted air quality alerts across much of the northwestern United States. People in affected areas should limit or avoid outdoor activities while poor air quality persists, especially those with respiratory conditions, older adults, and young children.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786068644866.png">Forecast models indicate areas of dense smoke will spill southward. As temperatures cool after sunset, a temperature inversion often forms, trapping smoke close to the ground and leading to deteriorating air quality near the surface. AS the next front in the north-central U.S. moves through it will likely pull in more moderate to dense smoke behind it.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/BARON 5-1786068730681.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Residents should expect reduced visibility and degraded air quality through Monday morning before seeing improvements.

Spokane Area Fires: Some Containment

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Kevin Schneider

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Storms packed quite the punch on Monday night in the southern part of Arizona and New Mexico! Multiple dust storm warnings were reported. The most notable being in Phoenix, as a haboob was caught on camera rolling through!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2084753745464938624" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2084753745464938624"></div>And for good reason! Check out some of the highest wind gusts that were recorded Monday night:<ul><li>Willcox, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 88 mph</li><li>Tucson, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 71 mph</li><li>Nogales, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66 mph</li><li>San Simon, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 64 mph</li><li>Douglas, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 62 mph</li></ul>As those storms fell apart, the outflow of winds from their collapse kicked up a dust storm...<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-04 103009-1785861039399.png">The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather overnight. Damaging winds will, once again, be the main concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 195906-1785981551782.png">During Monsoon season, haboobs are possible with just about any thunderstorm. It's important to remember what to do if you get caught in one in your car:<ul><li>pull off the road</li><li>keep your seatbelt on</li><li>turn your lights off and take your foot off the brake</li></ul>

Haboob Blows Through Phoenix; More Possible

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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Each year, Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project releases multiple forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, including one of the earliest issued among major forecasters. On August 5, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team released their final update heading into the peak of the season. With El Niño holding strong, it's not surprising that CSU continued their below average forecast for the season. They expect 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 075704-1785938232754.png"> This forecast includes Tropical Storm Arthur, which made landfall along the Texas coast in mid-June and brought tornadoes and flooding rain to Louisiana and Mississippi, and Tropical Storm Bertha, which traced the Gulf coast in July with minimal impacts. Remember, as Arthur proved, even below average seasons can have major impacts.NOAA is expected to release an update to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-predictions-for-the-2026-hurricane-season">their seasonal forecast </a>this week. We'll bring you those numbers as soon as they become available. <h1>FORECAST FACTORS</h1>You've probably heard rumblings about the strengthening El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The continuation of El Ni­­ño during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in CSU's below average forecast. Near to slightly above normal sea surface temperatures will also play a role, considering they have been well above average in recent seasons.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 080509-1785938944958.png">Why do El Ni­­ños typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 063418-1775740706915.png">We are now heading into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Starting in August and lasting through October, we climatologically see the bulk of our tropical system development. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 080540-1785939101444.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 080526-1785939101442.png">Even with a slightly below average season, two major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so stay prepared and stay tuned. WeatherNation will always keep you updated on the latest in the tropics!

CSU Updates Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast for 2026

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We're still keeping our eye on the Eastern Pacific which continues to be very active!

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Hurricane Norman is continuing on its west track until Thursday night where it will start to curve northwest. Currently, sustained winds are at 85 mph, and Norman will stay a category 1 hurricane until about Thursday night. Although Norman is not looking to make direct impact with the Hawaiian islands, it could still bring some rain and rough seas to Hawaii.

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Olivia has now been upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds are around 105 mph, and Olivia is looking to strengthen more by tonight. It will continue on its west track over the next five days and could possibly have some impacts on Hawaii, but it still is a little too early to say. <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a> will continue to update you on the Eastern Pacific throughout the rest of the week!