WeatherNation Meteorologists

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As a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the Southwest and Southern Plains, cold fronts will continue to ride around the ridge into the Midwest and Northeast, keeping these areas of the country stormy. Multiple fronts will track through the Midwest over the next few days, bringing shifting chances for severe storms and heavy downpours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 065345-1786193861506.png">While cooler and drier air will move in briefly behind the fronts, warmth and moisture will rebuild quickly to the south, leading to plenty of instability for severe storms. The outlooks shift a bit each day (top of page), depending on where the fronts are located. Damaging winds and flooding are expected to be the primary hazards. A few isolated tornadoes are possible too!<h1>Sunday - Monday Outlooks</h1>Severe weather chances will increase Sunday and Monday around the Great Lakes, as jet stream energy and instability increase along the fronts. The SPC has issued slight risks (level 2 out of 5) for both of these days (below).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242015920.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242048176.png"><h1>Forecast</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-00-11-1786194133990.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Storms are possible any time of day, but look more active from the afternoons overnight into the early mornings. As is the case with many summertime thunderstorms, big clusters of storms may form (known as an MCS) which can persist well into the overnight hours. Out forecast model likes chances for these overnight storms the next few days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070108-1786194088338.png">While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, areas of heavy rainfall are expected. Totals upwards of 3-4 inches are possible, with isolated to scattered flash flooding possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-01-12-1786194100469.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

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Aside from the two tropical storms that formed along the Gulf Coast, this year in the Atlantic has been fairly quiet. The lower than normal activity has been expected thanks to the major El Niño event that continues to build in the Pacific. While the season was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-holds-steady-with-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">expected to have less activity than normal</a>, it doesn't mean the Atlantic will be devoid of tropical activity. The National Hurricane Center issued an outlook Saturday morning off the West Coast of Africa in anticipation of a robust tropical wave that is expected to move off the African coast sometime Tuesday. Forecast models have been in solid agreement about the higher strength of this tropical wave, and its potential to develop, despite somewhat marginal environmental conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786240554412.png">The NHC is giving the wave a low chance to develop over the next 7 days, but that could change as forecast factors become more clear. Both of the major global models (GFS &amp; ECMWF) give the wave a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The wave will be fighting Saharan dust and near/below average sea surface temperatures, but may be able to find enough energy to get organized.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-54-30-1786197366275.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecast models in the long range take the wave north into the middle of the Atlantic, but with such long-range forecasts, there is little certainty to these solutions. People in the Caribbean and United States should be monitoring the progress of this system closely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075458-1786197331248.png">The next storm on the list in the Atlantic this season is Cristobal (Crees-to-bal). The development of tropical waves in western Africa tends to increase greatly from August into September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075520-1786197341125.png">

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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A large area of high pressure continues to bring the heat across the United States. Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect across the western U.S. Find ways to stay cool and stay out of the sunshine.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 113258-1786210388632.png"><h1>HEAT RISKS</h1>In addition to the heat alerts, the Heat Risk is up to major to extreme levels, especially across the southwest. This means that the heat will be dangerous for everyone, even if you're used to the desert heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242337435.png"><h1>Southwest</h1>In the short term, temperatures stay quite hot for the Southwest. However, the ridge will begin to build eastward across the Plains which will allow this region's temperatures to cool down to near normal or below average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242468722.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242448858.png"><h1>Plains</h1>The long lasting heat dome is making its way eastward into the Central and Southern Plains for next week! Extreme Heat Watches are already up for parts of Missouri and they will likely expand in the coming days. Highs will soar into the triple digits. Make sure to find adequate ways to stay cool!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242597944.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242666137.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

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A series of frontal systems will keep the Northeast active with storms and heavy rainfall chances into the weekend. As a front approaches the coast on Saturday, scattered severe storms are expected with damaging winds possible. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially in urban areas.<h2>HEAT ALERTS</h2>Warm southerly flow around the Bermuda high in the Western Atlantic is keeping the coast hot and humid on Saturday. Heat alerts have been issued where heat index values will range between 95 - 105° F. Take breaks from the sun in shade or air conditioning and be sure to drink lots of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070515-1786194328560.png"><h2>FORECAST</h2>Friday's storms did produce several areas of damaging winds and flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In the Northeast, wind gusts topped out at 58 mph in Pennsylvania. Saturday, more scattered storms are possible ahead of the cold front, which could lead to gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The best timing for the severe storms will occur during the afternoon and evening hours. The front should clear most of the Northeast on Sunday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/FORECAST-1786219970943.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL</h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070818-1786194510592.png">Rainfall totals don't appear off the charts, but with already saturated grounds, the flooding risk is certainly here.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786156033794.png">For more on this and any flood or severe alerts in your area, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

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Brittany Lockley

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NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to forecast fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than what is typically seen during an average year.&nbsp;Forecasters say the overall pattern across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans still supports a quieter season. The ongoing influence of El Niño is expected to create stronger upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for developing tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085032-1786027844121.png">NOAA continues to predict&nbsp;7 to 13 named storms&nbsp;this season. Of those,&nbsp;2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, while&nbsp;0 to 2&nbsp;could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.&nbsp;<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2085374878392172899" src="https://x.com/NOAA/status/2085374878392172899/photo/2"></div>The agency says there is a&nbsp;75% chance of a below-average season, a&nbsp;20% chance of near-average activity, and only a&nbsp;5% chance of an above-average season.&nbsp;Although the season has been relatively quiet, with only two Gulf storms in the Atlantic basin thus far (Arthur &amp; Bertha), NOAA&nbsp;cautions that the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning. Historically, tropical activity ramps up in August and peaks around mid-September before gradually declining through the fall.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085119-1786027891236.png">NOAA also reminds residents that seasonal forecasts are meant to estimate the total number of storms, not where they will track. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to produce significant damage and life-threatening impacts, regardless of whether the season ends below average.&nbsp;With several months remaining in hurricane season, emergency officials encourage people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to have a hurricane plan in place, review evacuation routes, and keep emergency supplies ready in case a storm threatens their area.&nbsp;

Rob Bradley

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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SPOKANE, WA - On Saturday, August 1st, the Old Trails Fire ignited northwest of Spokane. This fire was fueled by hot, dry conditions and wind gusts up to 45 mph, which helped the fire spread rapidly through grass and brush before reaching neighborhoods. The fire eventually crossed the Spokane River, creating additional challenges for firefighters.UPDATE: The cause still remains under investigation, but a convicted felon has been arrested on an arson charge as the primary suspect for starting the Old Trails Fire near Spokane.<h3>Impacts:</h3><ul><li>The Spokane Area fires, consisting of the Autumn Lane, Old Trails, and Fairview fires, have burned 10,436 acres</li><li>Containment: Autumn Lane 37%, Old Trails 23%, and Fairview 31%</li><li>Thousands of residents remain under evacuation orders</li><li>Approximately 800+ structures have been destroyed, and thousands more are threatened</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 194958-1785981012796.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2084640508320854421" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2084640508320854421"></div>The Governor of Washington, Bob Ferguson, has declared a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://governor.wa.gov/news/2026/governor-ferguson-declares-statewide-wildfire-emergency-issues-statewide-burn-ban">statewide wildfire emergency</a>, including a statewide burn ban due to the current drought conditions, high temperatures, and high winds. The President has also approved an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20260804/president-donald-j-trump-approves-emergency-declaration-washington">emergency declaration</a> for Washington, providing federal disaster assistance to supplement response efforts due to emergency conditions resulting in these wildfires.<h2>Forecast Ahead</h2>Winds will increase in the forecast on Friday and Saturday, prompting new fire weather alerts across the northwest. Red Flag Warnings are in place for portions of the Northwest and Northern Four Corners.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786068617168.png">Residents should have a go bag packed and an evacuation plan in place in case evacuation orders expand into their area. If your community is placed under an evacuation order, leave immediately and follow instructions from local emergency officials.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-02 163825-1785710315388.png"><h2>Air Quality</h2>Smoke from the ongoing wildfires has prompted air quality alerts across much of the northwestern United States. People in affected areas should limit or avoid outdoor activities while poor air quality persists, especially those with respiratory conditions, older adults, and young children.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786068644866.png">Forecast models indicate areas of dense smoke will spill southward. As temperatures cool after sunset, a temperature inversion often forms, trapping smoke close to the ground and leading to deteriorating air quality near the surface. AS the next front in the north-central U.S. moves through it will likely pull in more moderate to dense smoke behind it.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/BARON 5-1786068730681.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Residents should expect reduced visibility and degraded air quality through Monday morning before seeing improvements.

Spokane Area Fires: Some Containment

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Kevin Schneider

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Storms packed quite the punch on Monday night in the southern part of Arizona and New Mexico! Multiple dust storm warnings were reported. The most notable being in Phoenix, as a haboob was caught on camera rolling through!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2084753745464938624" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2084753745464938624"></div>And for good reason! Check out some of the highest wind gusts that were recorded Monday night:<ul><li>Willcox, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 88 mph</li><li>Tucson, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 71 mph</li><li>Nogales, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66 mph</li><li>San Simon, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 64 mph</li><li>Douglas, AZ&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 62 mph</li></ul>As those storms fell apart, the outflow of winds from their collapse kicked up a dust storm...<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-04 103009-1785861039399.png">The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather overnight. Damaging winds will, once again, be the main concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 195906-1785981551782.png">During Monsoon season, haboobs are possible with just about any thunderstorm. It's important to remember what to do if you get caught in one in your car:<ul><li>pull off the road</li><li>keep your seatbelt on</li><li>turn your lights off and take your foot off the brake</li></ul>

Alana Cameron

Haboob Blows Through Phoenix; More Possible

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The next storm has formed across the central Atlantic Ocean, about 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. It is Tropical Depression Eleven and forecast to weaken before it reaches the Caribbean Sea.

<img class="wp-image-97435 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/9pm-4.jpg" alt="Tropical Depression Forms East of the Caribbean" width="1920" height="1080" /> Tropical Depression Eleven statistics as of 11 p.m. ET Friday, September 21

The tropical depression is surrounded by dry air and the storm is forecast to encounter disruptive winds -known as wind shear- as it nears the Caribbean. Both factors are expected to weaken the storm as it approaches the islands.

<img class="wp-image-97436 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/atl-4.jpg" alt="Tropical Depression Forms East of the Caribbean" width="1920" height="1080" /> The forecast for Saturday and Sunday, September 22 and 23 for Tropical Depression Eleven.

Usually the forecast cone for a new storm goes out to five days, that *would* be Wednesday with this storm. However with Tropical Depression Eleven, the forecast cone only goes out two days to Sunday. That shows the storm is expected to weaken. The same weakening happened to Isaac a couple weeks ago as wind shear tore apart and weakened that particular storm. Still though, monitor the progress of this system because it will likely still bring heavy on-and-off showers to the Eastern Caribbean islands Sunday into Monday.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/steven-glazier/">Steve Glazier</a>