Kevin Schneider

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-18 10-51-54-1758207184122.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches, or even more, before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web4-1758207272039.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Out in the Eastern Pacific, a broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The NHC has good confidence in the development of a tropical depression in the next day or two. The next name up on the Pacific hurricane season names list is Narda.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758204031586.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web2-1758206462535.png">Regardless of its likely development, this new system is trending into cooler waters regardless. It's north-westward trajectory will potentially stunt any further development beyond a tropical depression/storm.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758205752813.png">However, forecast models are rather sporadic in the direction this system goes. Some send it meandering out to sea, while a few take it further north. A similar track we've seen this Pacific hurricane season with hurricane Lorena and more recently, tropical storm Mario, where residual moisture after these storms dissipated tracked tropical moisture into the southern U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758206076086.png">Now, this isn't calls to press the proverbial red "panic" button. Regardless if moisture makes it's way to the U.S., any tropical depression or storm will have been dissipated long before. It'll simply be something we'll watch closely into the weekend. Reminder that we're getting over the final little peak of the Pacific hurricane season. It's important to continue to stay updated all the way throughout!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758206389816.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for all the latest updates on this new invest.

More Activity Churning in the Eastern Pacific

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. It has since lost tropical storm status but it's remnant moisture is bringing flood chances to California. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-18 04-55-48-1758193214237.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Mario weakened upon encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and enhanced shear. It became post-tropical once and for all Tuesday night. The leftover moisture from Mario is moving north across California over the next few days with an attendant flooding threat.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-18 05-01-24-1758193318979.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The rain will be a welcome sight for many in California. Downtown LA hasn't seen rain since the beginning of JUNE! Unfortunately the rain also comes with a threat for flooding, particularly in the mountains and deserts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104048-1758127280118.png">The Baron forecast model depicts pockets of 3-4 inches of rain through Friday, especially in the mountains around Southern California and in the Sierra. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 050000-1758193278094.png">The tropical nature of the rainfall is likely to lead to some flooding. The southern Central Valley out to the Colorado River, including much of southern California, is included in a Slight Risk (Level 2) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday, while the higher threat shifts north to the Sierra on Friday. Areas that have seen wildfire activity in recent years or this year will have a higher flood risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 045824-1758193119328.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 045828-1758193129903.png">

Mario Sends Tropical Moisture to California, Flooding Possible

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Conditions are slowly becoming more active in the Atlantic as Gabrielle is churning in the Central Atlantic while another tropical wave is expected to emerge from western Africa this weekend. <h1>Gabrielle</h1>Tropical Storm Gabrielle is in the Central Atlantic and is expected to strengthen in the coming days as turns northeast this weekend, likely to pass Bermuda to the east. People with interests in Bermuda should monitor this storm, as direct and indirect impacts are still possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 044732-1758192491294.png">On Wednesday, the NHC was highlighting two tropical waves emerging from Africa, but one of those waves is not likely to develop so that area has been removed. The remaining region highlights the potential development for a wave expected to move off the coast of Africa this weekend. Conditions will be hostile for this tropical wave for some time as Saharan Dust (dry air) is expected to continue to surge in this area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 044825-1758192515950.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1758140698761.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Gabrielle Churns in the Atlantic, Another Tropical Wave Emerges

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the Pacific, moved over the Rockies, and is now in the Plains has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains. It's now pushing into the Midwest and Southern Plains, ushering a slow-moving cold front through the area.Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a>The front is moving southward, bringing the threat of more hailstones and damaging winds. A level one risk (marginal) is in effect for Thursday from Iowa to the Panhandle of Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 053127-1758195099369.png">Storms are expected to continue for most of Thursday along the frontal boundary, with more intense storms in the afternoon as daytime heating provides additional energy and lift. Scattered storms will continue along the front overnight into Friday, with a few more heavy downpours expected Friday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-18 05-37-12-1758195479937.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall rates could surpass 1-2" per hour in these slow moving thunderstorms, resulting in pockets of 2-4 inches of accumulation. This could lead to isolated flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 192042-1758158454292.png">The WPC has issued excessive rainfall outlooks for this isolated flood chance for Thursday and Friday, between west Texas and northern Mississippi.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 053746-1758195612299.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Storms Slide Down the Plains

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 15th - 21st). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 190824-1758158004265.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow and orange areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting To Show in Parts of the Lower 48

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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The next storm has formed across the central Atlantic Ocean, about 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. It is Tropical Depression Eleven and forecast to weaken before it reaches the Caribbean Sea.

<img class="wp-image-97435 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/9pm-4.jpg" alt="Tropical Depression Forms East of the Caribbean" width="1920" height="1080" /> Tropical Depression Eleven statistics as of 11 p.m. ET Friday, September 21

The tropical depression is surrounded by dry air and the storm is forecast to encounter disruptive winds -known as wind shear- as it nears the Caribbean. Both factors are expected to weaken the storm as it approaches the islands.

<img class="wp-image-97436 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/atl-4.jpg" alt="Tropical Depression Forms East of the Caribbean" width="1920" height="1080" /> The forecast for Saturday and Sunday, September 22 and 23 for Tropical Depression Eleven.

Usually the forecast cone for a new storm goes out to five days, that *would* be Wednesday with this storm. However with Tropical Depression Eleven, the forecast cone only goes out two days to Sunday. That shows the storm is expected to weaken. The same weakening happened to Isaac a couple weeks ago as wind shear tore apart and weakened that particular storm. Still though, monitor the progress of this system because it will likely still bring heavy on-and-off showers to the Eastern Caribbean islands Sunday into Monday.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/steven-glazier/">Steve Glazier</a>