Brittany Lockley

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Are you thinking about heading to the beach in Florida? You may want to reconsider. The "Sunshine State" and the Southeast are experiencing heavy rainfall, with a stalled front causing rain for the next few days. Rain showers will continue not only in Florida but throughout the Southeast. A frontal boundary stretched across the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will stick around for several days. This front will bring in additional rainfall before the influence of PTC Six (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/tropical-system-expected-to-develop-this-week">related article here</a>) brings heavy rain to Louisiana by Wednesday. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-09 060848-1725883866809.png">Portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas could see flooding due to the heavy nature of the rain. Fortunately, there's not a high risk of flooding, but at least some ponding of water will be possible, along with minor flooding in isolated spots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-09 060912-1725883827918.png">Expect heavy rain near the front, with the strongest storms and highest rainfall rates from the late morning through the afternoon, when flood potential will be peaking.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-09 06-09-41-1725883839233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The second west low that lingers in the Gulf will move back to the north next week, bringing flood chances back to Texas and Louisiana. Make sure to tune in to WeatherNation for the latest details.

Front Stalls in the Northern Gulf, Scattered Downpours Expected

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Kevin Schneider

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GULF COAST - The National Hurricane Center has named Tropical Storm Francine Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center. The latest forecast has Francine strengthening to a category 1 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 85 mph by late Tuesday/early Wednesday as it approaches landfall, likely along the Louisiana Gulf Coast.. The following alerts have been issued for the U.S.:<blockquote>"A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana.A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-09 090019-1725894145157.png">Heavy rain and flooding are expected from Texas to Louisiana. Widespread areas of 4-8 inches are expected, especially in southern Louisiana, with some localized areas surpassing a FOOT of rain! As Francine moves inland, deep Gulf moisture will be pulled into the Mississippi Valley states, bringing totals upwards of 4-6" into Arkansas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-09 090336-1725894230169.png">With the addition of saturated soils from recent rainy weather, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) expects flooding Monday through Wednesday; mostly for areas bordering the Gulf before pushing inland. They've upgraded areas of Louisiana into a MODERATE risk for flash flooding on Wednesday (level 3 out of 4).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Wed Mod Zoom-1725883438185.png">Our in-house Baron Model strengthens this system before moving it toward coastal Texas and Louisiana around the middle of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-09 06-10-40-1725883870966.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>While this system will be all about the heavy rain, storm surge, and elevated winds, don't forget about the severe component of it too. During landfall, areas in the right front quadrant of the storm could see numerous tornadoes spin up. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the coastal areas on Wednesday with the best bet to see those.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/SPC Outlook with cone-1725883706943.png">There are other areas to monitor, in the Atlantic AND the Pacific Basins. Read more about those here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-basin-becoming-active-again">Tropics Heating Up</a>

Administrator

Tropical Storm Francine Eyes the U.S. Gulf Coast

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As we approach the climatological peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic basin, it's starting to look like it! The most pressing threat to land at this time will be what develops in the Western Gulf in the next few days, read more about it here:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/tropical-system-expected-to-develop-this-week">PTC 6 Swirling in the Gulf</a>There are a few other areas in the Atlantic to monitor, one with a high chance and the other with a medium chance to develop. One has been dubbed 92L by the National Hurricane Center, meaning they can run models for the system.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/92 Spaghettis-1725884410715.png">This system is expected to stay north of the Leeward Islands, but could still bring impacts like some rain and high surf to the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/second wave-1725884415996.png">The other system behind 92L has a slightly lower chance of development. The final wave we're keeping our eyes on is in the Eastern Pacific basin. While it appears this system could head out to sea, some models suggest the moisture ends up in the Four Corners region late this week, enhancing the monsoonal thunderstorms we've gotten used to seeing.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/E Pac Outlook Sun-1725884344080.png">This week serves as a great reminder to sure up your hurricane plan just in case, with the climatological peak on September 10.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-06 065219-1725627152702.png">We're a little under halfway through Hurricane Season, but the usual peak in activity is still a little under a week away! Stay with WeatherNation for the latest forecast on the tropics in the coming days!

Four Different Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic and Pacific

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Hot and dry weather has been a theme of the Summer for many out West. As temperatures soared into the 110-115 range this past weekend, more wildfires broke out thanks to the dry vegetation. Related article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/building-heat-for-the-southwest-this-week">West Coast Scorcher</a>. With hot temperatures lingering and winds kicking up in the afternoon, more Red Flag Warnings greet those in Wyoming, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Red Flag Warnings-1725885427581.png">The northwest has been plagued by wildfire smoke already, with multiple fires ongoing coming into the weekend. Since then, places like California and Nevada have had plenty of fires spring up. <h2>Rail Ridge Fire</h2>A wildfire in Oregon, which was started by lightning back on September 2, has grown to over 135,000 acres. Close to 150 homes are being threatened by this blaze<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Rail Ridge Fire-1725885456612.png"><h2>Line Fire</h2>The Line Fire has prompted evacuations in San Bernardino County as flames burned over 20,000 acres over the weekend. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1833120673797193838" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1833120673797193838"></div><h2>Davis Fire</h2>Near Reno, the Davis Fire has brought smoky skies to the Lake Tahoe area, with zero containment so far. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Davis Fire-1725885547837.png">We will have to wait until the middle of the week before some relief comes to those out west. A strong trough will swing through, which will drop the temperatures, bring rain chances, and hopefully sweep the smoke away. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-09 06-39-34-1725885594453.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> For more details on the cooldown, catch your West Regional Forecast at :50 past every hour!

Wildfires Erupt Out West This Weekend

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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SOUTHWEST - Numerous records broke this weekend in California and Arizona after a dangerous heat left millions under heat alerts. On Sunday, new records broke all across the Los Angeles area where temperatures soared into the triple digits. Here are some locations that tied previous records for September 8th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-08 211816-1725852012783.jpg">Excessive Heat Alerts remain in effect now through Tuesday across California and Arizona. Temperatures above 115° will be possible during this time.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-08 212109-1725852077236.jpg">Many spots will be at least 10° above average through Monday. Make sure you are staying hydrated and planning for the heat! The coast will also be relatively warm, but cooler than areas further inland. For example, Downtown Los Angeles is expected to hit the triple digits again Monday, but the coast of LA, near Santa Monica, will sit 10° cooler.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/mon - wed highs so cal-1725884693774.png">Confidence in warmer than normal temperatures sticking around in the long-range forecast for most of the Intermountain West is quite strong, however, the western states look to drop to more seasonal levels if not a little below average. This will be a nice break from the extreme heat. Many people in the Pacific Northwest do not have air-conditioning so these rounds of extreme heat can be extra dangerous. The Climate Prediction Center gives Seattle and Portland odds to be below average into the middle of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-08 143737-1725827863430.png"> More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

At Least One More Day of Blistering Heat for Southwest

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RECORD COLD - Cool overnights continue as refreshingly Fall-like air arrives across the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, Great Lakes, and Appalachians. There are several potential record-cold temperatures in store again on Monday morning! Here is a look at the low temperatures overnight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Tonights lows-1725794625730.jpg">Low temperatures will be at or below average through Tuesday morning for most cities across the East. The difference between the cool air blowing over some warmer lake waters will fire up more rain chances through Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/lake effect setup-1725815363503.png">Some storms on Monday will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds, especially in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas of upstate New York with the best chance.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Westnystorms-1725851844761.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Once the rain clears out, temperatures will start to rebound near the middle of the week. Highs will get back to normal values for early September for many, so take advantage of the cooler air while it's around!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-08 152208-1725830537823.jpg">Check back with us to find out which weather will be where in your East Regional Forecast, at :10 past every hour.

Dave Holder

Chilly Air Spurs Severe Threat in the Northeast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Pumpkin spice lattes are back at coffee shops, and the Halloween décor has popped into retail locations, which means fall is on the horizon. As the summer season wraps up meteorologically on August 31st and astronomically on September 22nd, Mother Nature heralds in the tell-tale signs that Autumn has arrived with the changing colors of the leaves.&nbsp;&nbsp;But forecasting the changing leaves is a difficult task with variables that can sometimes be difficult to track. &nbsp;Weather plays an important role in the timing of when leaves will change, and while some locations have seasonal averages for peak foliage, nature has the final say on when the brilliant colors will arrive.&nbsp;WHY LEAVES CHANGE COLOR:&nbsp;The change in season sparks the transformation within deciduous trees. Deciduous trees typically have large, broad leaves and use flowers to reproduce; think your oak and maple types. These trees get the deciduous classification from the Latin word “dēciduus” which means “to fall” because of their tendency to drop their leaves once they reach maturity. &nbsp;Coniferous trees are your evergreen trees. These trees tend to have needles or scales and reproduce using cones. Coniferous trees typically hold their needles year-round as they help with water conservation for the tree to continue producing food for itself during the long winter and summer months.&nbsp;Because of the deciduous tree's leaf shape, they are the ones that transform into brilliant plumes of color as the days get shorter. &nbsp;So, what’s sparking the change?&nbsp;According to the Smithsonian, in fall, the days start getting shorter, meaning less sunlight, and in turn, cooler temperatures. This signals the trees to end their food making process. The chlorophyll within the leaves that helps conduct photosynthesis begins to fade allowing other chemicals within the leaves to shine. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot 2024-08-28 135520-1724874946511.png">WHAT DO FORECASTS LOOK FOR:&nbsp;“The ideal weather we’re looking for is sunny, warm afternoons, and clear, cold nights,” said Evan Fisher, the founder of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://ExploreFall.com">ExploreFall.com</a>. Too much drought or rain can vastly impact the colors produced by the trees. &nbsp;&nbsp;Heat can induce stress on the trees and allow them to show color early. Fisher said maples are susceptible to stress, such as a warm summer, like many along the Eastern Seaboard have seen in the 2024 summer season. &nbsp;“The hardest part of predicting fall color is accounting for the extremes.” Fisher elaborated. “[Drought] that can do crazy things to the fall color. If you have a little bit of drought it may delay the color. If you have a lot of drought, it may accelerate it. But we don’t really know exactly where that line is exactly in between. And sometimes the same goes for really moist conditions.” &nbsp;Another important factor for forecasting foliage is the amount of daylight too. “I like to say that daylight opens the door for fall colors. Once the days get short enough and the temperatures are cool enough, we start to see the colors progress,” Fisher said.&nbsp;You can learn more about forecasting fall colors below:&nbsp;<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GyZbO8Rh3Ug" start="0"></iframe></div>WHY ARE THEY DIFFERENT COLORS: &nbsp;The color each tree presents depends on what’s present in the leaves. According to the State University of New York’s College of Environmental Science and Forestry, xanthophyll and carotenes are already present in leaves as the green chlorophyll fades away. These pigments give leaves yellow and orange coloring, similar to how they color other plants such as carrots.&nbsp;Other chemical reactions can happen at the same time as the fading green color which produces anthocyanin pigments, which give leaves a reddish and purplish color. The Forestry Services of Scotland says if temperatures stay above freezing, more of these anthocyanin pigments are produced. If autumn remains sunny and dry, even more trees will begin to produce pigments to give even more red color. The process is slow though, which is why you sometimes see trees with a mix of greens, yellows, and reds all at once.&nbsp;WHY DO LEAVES DROP:&nbsp;In the spring, trees create little tubules between the leaves and the branches to transport nutrients back and forth between the leaves. As the fall creeps in, the tree begins producing a hormone that builds up a waxy layer between the leaf and the branch that reduces nutrient transportation. Eventually the leaf will be weak enough to be carried away by the wind, rain, or snow, said Michael Davidson on his Molecular Expressions website via Florida State University. &nbsp;By dropping their leaves, deciduous trees will spend less energy through the winter and converse moisture throughout their systems. The dropping of their leaves also prevents external stress that can occur when heavy snow weighs down a tree’s branches. &nbsp;

Rob Bradley

Getting You Ready for Fall Foliage 2024

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Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for portions of the Gulf from Louisiana east into parts of the western Florida panhandle. A Tropical Storm Watch means that there is a chance of a Tropical Storm, with winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour, hitting a specified area within 48 hours. It goes from roughly New Orleans east to coastal Alabama.

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This disturbance is currently located in the Bahamas and is known as PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) 7. As of now, it is a disorganized area of storms that is moving west. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high chance of further development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico by late Monday.

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Based on upper-level steering, this disturbance will track WNW into the Gulf by Monday and continue a track along the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday and Wednesday.

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While further formation is expected, the main concern at this time is still heavy rain and gusty wind. Rain will be the focus as this system brings anywhere from 4"-6" of tropical downpours by early-mid week.

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This is a developing story and forecast changes are still likely so please keep checking back for updates.

Meteorologist Merry Matthews