Kevin Schneider

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Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each week there's been a storm system that ridges from the Plains into the northeast and we've got another one headed our way. Each wave has brought severe chances and renewed flooding concerns - this one's not much different.<h1>FLOODING</h1>Repeated rounds of storms has lead to swolen riverways in areas around the Midwest, like Indiana, in recent week. This week, the concern is more centered around flash flooding, when it simply rains too hard for too long. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 071417-1788095687168.png">Western PA and Western NY are sticking out on some of the model data. However, anywhere that picks up an inch or two in some of the urban corridors around I-95 will be problematic.<h1>SEVERE</h1>As these systems dive southeast out of the Great Lakes, they will have a few ingredients to turn storms severe, potentially. Right now, the timing looks a little later than usual for severe weather events. Generally favoring the afternoon and evening on any one of Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. However, data continues to point more toward the early overnight hours, with storms holding together even into daybreak. With a slow-moving system, this is all subject to change so keep up with the latest on the forecast over the next few days. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-30 07-28-44-1788096769392.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With all of the rain in recent weeks, trees will have an easier time toppling. So even if winds don't quite reach the severe threshold, we are still expecting pretty widespread damage.

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

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The Pacific hurricane season is showing no signs of slowing down as multiple tropical systems churn across the basin, with warm ocean temperatures and a strengthening El Niño helping create favorable conditions for development.Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell are among the latest systems to form over the open Pacific. Both storms are forecast to strengthen as they remain over warm water and could become potent hurricanes. Karina will continue jogging northwest, but many models flatten out the path to due west late week. Farther west, Lowell is on a trajectory to stay south of Hawaii. However, any sort of interaction with Karina could complicate the forecast here. If Lowell were to be pulled northward, those in Hawaii should be prepared. It's far from a guarantee, however. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 070204-1788094941907.png">The active pattern may not end with the current systems. There is another area southwest of Mexico where a low could develop this weekend. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become favorable for additional organization, giving the disturbance a high chance of tropical development over the next several days. Another disturbance south of Hawaii is also being watched, although its chances of development are currently much lower. That one looks to have no impact of any land mass.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 gfs-1788053109065.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>El Niño Helping Fuel Pacific Activity</h1>The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 070106-1788094892764.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.While the Pacific remains crowded with tropical systems, many of the current storms are expected to remain over open water. Still, with several additional areas being monitored, the active stretch of the 2026 Pacific hurricane season is far from over.Click here for more on what is happening in the Atlantic Basin:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-tropics-watching-several-areas-strong-tropical-wave-next-week"> Atlantic Tropics.</a>

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093881392803299496" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093881392803299496"></div>Ready for some fall-like temperatures? Some residents in the Northwest will get a taste of autumn as a cold trough of low pressure digs into the region from Canada this weekend. Another cold trough is expected in the area next week as well!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/west troughies-1788052370992.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Farther south, the cooler air will be clashing with the warmth of summer, leading to energy for strong storms and heavy downpours. Many areas around the Four Corners and Rockies will have potential to see 1-3 inches of rain by the end of the day on Tuesday.<h1>Rain &amp; Flood</h1>Pacific moisture will inundate the region, with days of heavy downpours for areas around the Four Corners. 1-4 inches of rain are expected in the favored locations, with scattered flash flooding possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 191327-1788052454224.png">Flood outlooks are elevated through Monday in portions of Arizona and Utah, with the isolated risk for flooding lingers around the region through Tuesday at least.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-30 09-05-16-1788095151529.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Storms</h1>As the low and cold front swings through the Rockies with scattered severe storms are possible from eastern Nevada through northern Utah. Isolated severe storms are possible for areas in green from Tucson through Cheyenne. Winds have clocked up to 60-70 mph Saturday night, and the risk for severe storms will stick around for Sunday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062145-1788095441916.png">Severe storms appear possible around the Four Corners on Sunday and Monday as well, so stay prepared to seek shelter if a warning is issued for you.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 WEST OVERNIGHT BAMS-1788052759450.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Drought Relief</h1>September is favored for above average precipitation across a majority of the Western United States. This would be a great way to end a solid monsoon season, which runs through the end of the month.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075355-1788011658558.png">With more rain on the way, drought improvement is likely for some areas, while drought removal is even possible in others. Keep doing your rain dance (take video and tag us if you do!).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075403-1788011667031.png">

Tracey Anthony

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

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Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic on Thursday. Former Invest 96-L was able to create a clearly defined center of circulation Thursday morning with robust convection. The system encountered strong winds which broke the system apart. The remnants have a low chance of developing again, but will still bring heavy rain to the Caribbean and the Bahamas in the days ahead.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 dolly caribean-1788052222941.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Puerto Rico has seen dire drought conditions and is in desperate need of rain. Still, with dry ground and hilly terrain, flash flooding will be a threat. Interests in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should stay updated on the forecast in the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061707-1788092262806.jpg">Another low-pressure system in the northern Gulf is being monitored for development, this is an area of investigation denoted Invest 97L. This weak low needs time to get organized but it probably won't have it. Most models expect the low to move onshore by Tuesday, which would stop any development that occurs prior. A few heavy thunderstorms are expected on the north side of the low in the central Gulf.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 163312-1788042798983.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061825-1788092312602.jpg">El Niño has been smothering tropical waves in the Atlantic this summer, with four named storms to date but only 11% of average cyclone energy!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061729-1788092360286.jpg">This doesn't mean the rest of the season will be just as quiet, however, as 66% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20th and October 10th. The climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-27 090839-1787843332378.png">

NHC Monitoring Two Areas in the Atlantic

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093859694444155210" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093859694444155210"></div>It has been an active summer for portions of the Northern Plains, with several rounds of severe weather even during the last week. Another low will spur additional severe weather threats through the end of the weekend and into Monday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the biggest threats. The tornado threat will be isolated, but possible. Daytime heating will provide instability, with afternoons and evenings offering the best chance of severe storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062145-1788095508234.png">High-based thunderstorms are possible as a trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. On Sunday, storms from the Rockies are also likely to head east ahead of a cold front into the Plains and Dakotas, whereas a warm front will also allow for thunderstorms throughout the day.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 rnc overnight bams-1788052906153.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Most will see around a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but there will be localized heavier rainfall in the storms that develop over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 192155-1788052923169.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062205-1788095641339.png">For the latest updates on these storms, make sure to tune into the central regional forecast:30 past the hour.

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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During El Nino, temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer, or above normal. For the hurricane season, this means an increase in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 160007-1787781615977.png">These warmer sea surface temperatures also mean an increase in shark activity for Southern California beaches. Meteorologist Taban Sharifi spoke to Dr. Christopher Lowe, professor of marine biology and director of the Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach on how El Nino brings changes to marine life along the coast.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1FcXy4BQcgA" start="0"></iframe></div>As the waters continue to warm through the Fall, Dr. Lowe talked about the changing species that will be seen across the Southern California waters that are not typically there. This includes hammerhead sharks, whale sharks, and even manta rays. This also includes white sharks. The water farther south will get too warm for the white sharks, that are normally off the Baha of California, and they will begin to push north. Dr. Lowe said, "It's going to push those juvenile white sharks that are normally in Mexico into Southern California waters." This is something they have already started to see happen during July and August of this year, and the numbers of these sharks are increasing. Dr. Lowe said the sharks could reach as far north as Santa Cruz, CA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 155905-1787784580682.png">There's a sweet spot for water temperatures for these sharks that sits between 64°-72°. Above 82° is when sharks begin to move north. Currently, water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are significantly warmer than that 82° threshold.A message to beach goers: "Believe it or not, having all those white sharks off that beach might actually keep people safer. Because they are eating sting rays, there are fewer sting rays that might hurt people," said Dr. Lowe.Watch the full interview for more on how close these sharks get to the coastline and how scientists track their behavior.

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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High pressure continues to dominate the Southwest. Extreme Heat Warnings (in pink) still remain in place for cities including Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, and the Coachella Valley. Heat Advisories (in orange) also remain in place through tonight across the California Coast including Los Angeles and San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124202-1788028928893.png">Most of the Southwest, which is normally hot, will have many cities running above average and breaking records through tonight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124216-1788028995569.png">By tomorrow, we will start to feel the impacts of the trough that is digging into the PNW and the cooler air associated with it. Los Angeles will see temperatures drop down to the mid to low 80s by midweek.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124327-1788029016854.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest.

Southwest Heatwave Breaking Down

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https://youtu.be/i-_fIlQrrK8

Pea size, baseball size, even grapefruit size?

There are many everyday items that we can use to determine the best estimate of a hail stone.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90381 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/hail-size-chart-pics.jpg" alt="" width="630" height="617" />

Courtesy: NOAA/National Weather Service

Pea size hail is ¼" in diameter and hail at ¾" is the width of a penny.

When hail is 1" in diameter, that’s the same size as a quarter and also when hail size is considered "severe" (or large enough to potentially cause damage).

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90382" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/quart-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Some of the most destructive hail that falls measures at least 2" in diameter!

Tennis ball size is 2 ½", baseball size measures 2.75", tea cup size is 3", and softball size measures 4" in diameter.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90383" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/weldon-1-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Did you know hail can be even larger than that?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1258580136699420674

The biggest hailstone ever recorded was near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010, coming in at 8” in diameter!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90384" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/viv-2-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Just remember -- before you go outside to measure the size of hail that fell in your backyard, wait until the storm has moved far enough away so you can safely make your observation.

For WeatherNation, I’m <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Understanding Hail Size

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each week there's been a

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

The Pacific hurricane season is showing no si

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

Ready for some fall-like temperatures? Some r

NHC Monitoring Two Areas in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic o

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

It has been an active summer for portions of

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

During El Nino, temperatures across the Easte

Southwest Heatwave Breaking Down

High pressure continues to dominate the South