Kevin Schneider

A021DDE71AA34C50BB5468289EA6B1D7jpeg-1699372868991.jpeg

<p>An interesting setup is rolling through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this week. It's the spark that lights the fuse to the powerful system bringing some snow chances out east.</p><p>RELATED: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/east-coast-snow-what-we-know-about-the-late-week-system"><strong>Latest on the snow chances this week</strong></a></p><p>As it's getting setup, however, severe storms will be possible over the heartland on Wednesday.</p><h1>SETUP</h1><p>A fast-moving disturbance will ripple through the middle of the week. That will be enough to trigger storms by the afternoon on Wednesday. Because it is such a potent disturbance, the storms feel like a relatively safe bet. There are more questions about where storms will fire, with some models liking areas north of the marginal outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 113413-1794335669161.png"></p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p>Damaging winds are the biggest concern; There is plenty of wind shear to organize storms, and that wind energy could help spin up a tornado or two.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 071425-1794320113109.png"></p><p></p><h1>TIMING</h1><p>With a fairly fast-moving system, these storms will be in and out of here pretty quickly. The severe window looks to shut shortly after sunset on Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-10 11-35-26-1794335793911.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Severe Threat Rolls Returns to the Ohio Valley

20261110062918ezgifcomvideotogifconvertergif-1794317420241.gif

Adrian Hernandez

Adriannewnewjpeg-1774471713694.jpeg

<p>We've got a party getting started in the midweek with a strong low building in and heading east. It'll bring some heavy rain and maybe even snow to the Northeast, more on that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/east-coast-snow-what-we-know-about-the-late-week-system">here</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">. Across the Great Lakes however, we could be talking a different kind of setup.</a></p><p>It goes without saying, we'll see a pretty big cooldown once this system kicks on out of here.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-10 04-57-21-1794312411069.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>If you get far enough north, we could be dealing with some of that lake effect stuff into the midweek. Moisture is expected to linger long enough to get some decent totals across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan! We could see up to 6"!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-10 04-57-01-1794312477639.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 045820-1794312502305.png"></p><p>Lake water temperatures themselves are also cooler to the north. They're warm enough but the setup itself isn't going to lend itself much to a widespread lake effect event. It'll likely stay more isolated.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 045743-1794312721662.png"></p><p>Stay tuned to the forecast here on WeatherNation. We've got you covered!</p>

Lake Effect Machine May Fire Up Midweek

20261110051330gif-1794312852514.gif

WeatherNation Meteorologists

headshotspng-1676305264677.png

<p>Hurricane season isn’t over yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring twp areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, and the newest tropical storm in the Central Pacific.</p><h2><strong>Pacific: Pena Continues East in the Pacific</strong></h2><p>Tropical Storm Pena formed on Friday Southeast of Hawaii. This is the fifth named storm in the Central Pacific Basin this season, which beats the previous record for named systems in a season (3). This storm will stay south of Hawaii, with limited impacts to the island chain. Increased winds and waves are expected through the weekend, but that should be it for impacts.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 045143-1794311523570.png"></p><h2><strong>Atlantic: Staying Quiet</strong></h2><p>Not much is happening in the Atlantic Basin. What was Invest 94-L is no longer being monitored for tropical development. The Atlantic hurricane season ends at the end of the month.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 114435-1794249926655.png"></p><p>Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30. For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.</p><p>WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.</p>

Tropics Update: Pena Spinning in the Pacific

Screenshot20261110045244png-1794311572734.png

Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

JackieBrownjpeg-1679518619427.jpeg

<p>The calendar has turned to November, which means the start of the wet season for cities like Seattle and Portland. An atmospheric river setup is likely for the West Coast for the next several days. So, for a refresher, what is an atmospheric river? An atmospheric river is a large plume of moisture transported from the deep tropical Pacific northward to the West Coast.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/BARON 5-1793935449125.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>WAVES MOVE THROUGH</h2><p>Expect widespread rain through Washington on Tuesday, clipping Oregon and Idaho. There will be a break in systems, but on Friday we see another big push of moisture move through, with more moisture and heavy rain into Sunday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-10 04-33-31-1794310438669.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL TOTALS</h2><p>The heaviest rainfall will be along the Cascades and to the west. Some localized spots over the next week can receive over six inches of rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 043419-1794310489954.png"></p><h2>SNOWFALL TOTALS</h2><p>Snowfall totals through Friday morning will be localized, but some spots can see 6"-12".</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 043505-1794310523522.png"></p><h1>LONG TERM WEST</h1><p>Long-range models are hinting at some of these Pacific waves continuing to drive into California and the Four Corners next week. Heavy rain, snow, and strong winds could be a possibility as we move into the middle of November.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 044248-1794310990537.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 044324-1794311019475.png"></p><p>This is a developing story, and we will be here following the latest for you on WeatherNation!</p>

Atmospheric Rivers Slam the West

1png-1793933963013.png

<p>Ready for the first snow of the season? While a few flakes have come down in the usual spots this fall (northern Great Lakes &amp; New England), a solid burst of measurable snow is possible toward the end of the week and into next weekend. </p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103411-1794073162585.png">What We Know</h1><p>A big trough will dig down the Eastern U.S., but the exact placement of the trough and its cold air still need to be worked out. Forecast model ensembles all show a cold low-pressure system, but vary with timing and strength still.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103431-1794073182235.png">A larger trough will help several shortwaves swing through the Eastern half of the country, providing extra lift for heavy rain and snow. The timing and placement of these shortwaves could have a big impact on snow and heavy rain, as they provide an extra burst of energy that could pull Atlantic moisture into the cold air.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103422-1794073182237.png">What We Don't Know</h1><h2>Snow Totals</h2><p>Models are starting to move toward a solution this morning. The trend has been to carry a somewhat quicker system, which limits the amount of snow in the lowest elevations. However, a decent high-terrain snow looks more and more likely. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 043445-1794310545508.png">With 3 solutions on the table, the middle outcome appears to be favored. With the system starting to come together as of Tuesday morning, confidence has jumped, likely because the system is on land. A system over land is able to be sampled by weather balloons, instead of theoretical systems living rent-free in our minds. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 113524-1794249338997.png"></p><ul><li><p>A faster movement of the trough as it sets up could carry it eastward faster. This would severely limit any rain/snow totals. (green arrow)</p></li><li><p>A trough that sinks almost due south, allowing it to dig deeper and pull in more cold air before the moisture leaves. This is the ceiling outcome that could bring decent snow, even in the lowest elevations (red arrow)</p></li><li><p>Some cross between those two, which would likely limit snowfall to the highest elevations of the Appalachians (yellow)</p></li></ul><h2>Rain Totals</h2><p>As the trough brings Atlantic moisture into the Northeast, the potential increases for heavy rain and snow. The ECMWF is showing rainfall totals between 1-4 inches for parts of the Northeast, with the heaviest rain from Thursday into Friday. These totals could change significantly with the timing and placement of the lows.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-10 043429-1794310538758.png"><strong>Bottom line:</strong> Thursday will likely be mostly, if not all rain except for the highest elevations. Thursday night into Friday rain could change to snow depending on your temperatures (elevation). Most places will try to change back over to rain during the day Friday before back to snow. Overall, this looks to be a limited impact on everyday life right now. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-10 04-35-11-1794310598119.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

East Coast Snow? What We Know About the Late Week System

Screenshot20261110043417png-1794310550269.png

Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

TabanSharifijpeg-1679519287847.jpeg

<p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2119564015060025572" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2119564015060025572"></div><p>Rain is tapering off after the heavy totals that fell over the Lone Star State the last couple of days. On Sunday, we had several rainfall records fall.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/WEB 1-1794231174728.png">Not only were there records, but some of the totals surpassed half a foot of rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 155523-1794264949158.png"></p><h1>Rain &amp; Flood Potential</h1><p>Any additional rainfall Monday through Tuesday will be lighter, but because of the significant totals there will still be the possibility of isolated flooding.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 155628-1794265037493.png">The WPC keeps <strong>marginal </strong>to <strong>slight </strong>risk for flooding around overnight.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 155721-1794265052393.png">More on your Central Regional forecast can be found :30 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p><p></p>

Texas Flood Threat To Start The Week

Screenshot20261109114648png-1794250017123.png

Brittany Lockley

BrittanyLockleyjpeg-1679519515040.jpeg

<p>The same system that has produced unsettled weather across much of the country is still impacting the East Coast, bringing a surge of moisture into New England. The front will be exiting the Northeast Saturday morning. However, it brought rainfall totals over 6 inches in Massachusetts. The heaviest rain will be moving out, but an area of low pressure will still bring chilly rain to the Northeast into Sunday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113420-1794076472352.png"></p><p>The heaviest rainfall, according to our in-house forecast models, remains over portions of CT, RI, and MA. There could also be some snow chances with the colder air getting wrapped up into the system.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113507-1794076517572.png"></p><p>For more on your Eastern Regional Forecast, tune in to WeatherNation :10 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Heavy Rain Brings Flooding Concerns to Northeast as Storm System Moves East

Screenshot20261107112822png-1794076375351.png

https://youtu.be/i-_fIlQrrK8

Pea size, baseball size, even grapefruit size?

There are many everyday items that we can use to determine the best estimate of a hail stone.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90381 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/hail-size-chart-pics.jpg" alt="" width="630" height="617" />

<em>Courtesy: NOAA/National Weather Service</em>

Pea size hail is ¼" in diameter and hail at ¾" is the width of a penny.

When hail is 1" in diameter, that’s the same size as a quarter and also when hail size is considered "severe" (or large enough to potentially cause damage).

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90382" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/quart-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Some of the most destructive hail that falls measures at least 2" in diameter!

Tennis ball size is 2 ½", baseball size measures 2.75", tea cup size is 3", and softball size measures 4" in diameter.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90383" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/weldon-1-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Did you know hail can be even larger than that?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1258580136699420674

The biggest hailstone ever recorded was near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010, coming in at 8” in diameter!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90384" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/viv-2-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Just remember -- before you go outside to measure the size of hail that fell in your backyard, wait until the storm has moved far enough away so you can safely make your observation.

For WeatherNation, I’m <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Understanding Hail Size

Severe Threat Rolls Returns to the Ohio Valley

An interesting setup is rolling through the M

Lake Effect Machine May Fire Up Midweek

We've got a party getting started in the midw

Tropics Update: Pena Spinning in the Pacific

Hurricane season isn’t over yet. The National

Atmospheric Rivers Slam the West

The calendar has turned to November, which me

East Coast Snow? What We Know About the Late Week System

Ready for the first snow of the season? While

Texas Flood Threat To Start The Week

Rain is tapering off after the heavy totals t

Heavy Rain Brings Flooding Concerns to Northeast as Storm System Moves East

The same system that has produced unsettled w