Kevin Schneider

A021DDE71AA34C50BB5468289EA6B1D7jpeg-1699372868991.jpeg

<h1>SETUP</h1><p>An upper-level low is in the process of breaking off from the flow aloft. This will help spin up an area of low-pressure at the surface that will largely be stationary for this week. That could buy it enough time to acquire subtropical characteristics sometime this week. Regardless, the impacts will be felt, especially along the coasts. </p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113555-1792344980113.png"></p><p>High winds with a stubborn low will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest and places like Virginia who will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113708-1792345044385.png">Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph at times throughout the week as well. The questions about rainfall hinge on the location of the low. At this time, only areas along the coast could get a few showers, with the best chance looking like Monday. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113759-1792345093493.png"></p><h1>JOSEPHINE? IS THAT YOU?</h1><p>But if the low develops some tropical characteristics, it would need a name. Josephine is the next name on the list in the Atlantic basin. The NHC only gives it a LOW chance of development, which is more or less in line with the model data. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113850-1792345148673.png"></p><p>Right now, a majority of models struggle to develop the traits needed to qualify as a subtropical system, but that could change. Ultimately, the impacts won't change with or without officially naming it. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113939-1792345194703.png"></p>

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

20261018111935ezgifcomvideotogifconvertergif-1792344068554.gif

WeatherNation Meteorologists

headshotspng-1676305264677.png

<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h1>Pacific Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season and looks to continue to create additional activity through the next week. Several systems could bring impacts to the United States. Trudy is running into less favorable conditions for tropical intensification. This storm became a major hurricane on Friday, but it has since weakened and is now expected to be near category 2 status as it brushes the coast of Jalisco, Mexico.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 060758-1792318089906.png"></p><p>Another system is expected to form in the wake of Trudy, with the NHC giving the potential a high chance in the next week. This system looks to move WNW initially, but could curve back east in the long term.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061017-1792318223340.png"></p><h1>Western Pacific / Guam</h1><p>Super Typhoon Champi is now west of Guam as a category 4 storm. Thankfully, the core is compact and did miss a direct hit on the island.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-18 08-37-38-1792346983035.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>After Champi moves through the Marianna Islands and Guam early Sunday, the storm is expected to head WNW toward Taiwan.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792287243211.png"></p><p></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-16 111954-1792171201698.png"></p><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

Screenshot20261018061017png-1792318254244.png

<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday, one of which was the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger. Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. This should slow down on Sunday.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061931-1792318784350.png"></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061912-1792318762022.png"></p><h1>FIRE OUTLOOK</h1><p>Fire weather conditions should be winding down on Sunday afternoon, but an elevated fire risk will be re-issued for north California, Nevada and southern Oregon on Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061952-1792318804538.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p><p></p><p></p>

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

VON_101626_RSW_SANJUANCAPISTRANOCA_WILDFIREBASICALLYRIGHTONOPSHOUSE_TW_IUNKNOWN2010_MS_E101626ezgifcomvideotogifconvertergif-1792346781416.gif

<p>The fire situation in California is slowly improving as fire crews get better containment of the fires and winds are decreasing.</p><p>Looking ahead to next week, a big low pressure system will drop south from Canada down into Southern California. WPC favors most of the Western United States for seeing above average precipitation.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1792288286734.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 060428-1792317878910.png"></p><p>The precipitation should really get going on Wednesday, especially for Central and Southern California. The Sierra Nevada could be at play for some snowfall with this event. Throughout the week, the precipitation will slide eastward into the Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the West for seeing some heavier rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 060144-1792317814676.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-18 06-03-55-1792317852582.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Pattern Change for the West This Week

Screenshot20261018060428png-1792317881618.png

<p>After record heat impacted much of the Central and Eastern U.S. this week, a strong cold front has flipped the season from summer to fall for many! Cooler air is still working its way into Florida on Sunday, with highs expected to drop into the 70s across the Panhandle!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061158-1792318327982.png"></p><h1>Lows Tonight</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061404-1792318459731.png"></p><p>Low temperatures will be down into the 40s for many areas, but quite a few lows in the 30s are expected too. Temperatures will begin to warm steadily through the middle of the week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 061440-1792318490179.png"></p><p>Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.</p>

Millions Thawing Out after a Chilly Weekend

Screenshot20261018061242png-1792318526376.png

<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Rob Bradley

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

PIC4png-1792198811533.png

<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

RobBradleyjpeg-1679518597323.jpeg

<p>Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Texas and Oklahoma over the past 3 days. This is tropical moisture out of the Eastern Pacific that is feeding into this heavy rain set-up. Heavy rain will stay a factor into Friday for many of these same areas. Flash flooding and ponding will be likely.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792105981174.png"></p><p>On Wednesday, a tornado was captured on video near Fort Stockton. Preliminary reports indicate this tornado caused some damage.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110471661556498786" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110471661556498786"></div><p></p><h1>Outlook &amp; Timing</h1><p>Even though there were no outlooks for severe, intense thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Friday morning for areas of West Texas. Rainfall rates could get over 1" per hour and lead to flooding conditions.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792106185285.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Threat</h1><p>With the added moisture from Simon in the Pacific, heavy rainfall rates appear likely at times through Friday. Rain could fall at more than 2 inches per hour in some areas overnight, with totals surpassing 3 inches in a few locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 063540-1792068465522.png">There is a <strong>moderate</strong> threat for heavy rain and flooding across portions of SW Texas, while the slight risk encompasses much of west Texas into Southern Oklahoma.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792106287609.png"></p><p>Tune in to WeatherNation for your top weather headlines. Your full Central Regional Forecast can always be found :30 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

PIC5png-1792106093976.png

https://youtu.be/i-_fIlQrrK8

Pea size, baseball size, even grapefruit size?

There are many everyday items that we can use to determine the best estimate of a hail stone.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90381 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/hail-size-chart-pics.jpg" alt="" width="630" height="617" />

<em>Courtesy: NOAA/National Weather Service</em>

Pea size hail is ¼" in diameter and hail at ¾" is the width of a penny.

When hail is 1" in diameter, that’s the same size as a quarter and also when hail size is considered "severe" (or large enough to potentially cause damage).

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90382" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/quart-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Some of the most destructive hail that falls measures at least 2" in diameter!

Tennis ball size is 2 ½", baseball size measures 2.75", tea cup size is 3", and softball size measures 4" in diameter.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90383" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/weldon-1-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Did you know hail can be even larger than that?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1258580136699420674

The biggest hailstone ever recorded was near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010, coming in at 8” in diameter!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90384" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/viv-2-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Just remember -- before you go outside to measure the size of hail that fell in your backyard, wait until the storm has moved far enough away so you can safely make your observation.

For WeatherNation, I’m <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Understanding Hail Size

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

SETUPAn upper-level low is in the process of

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Pattern Change for the West This Week

The fire situation in California is slowly im

Millions Thawing Out after a Chilly Weekend

After record heat impacted much of the Centra

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Te