Kevin Schneider

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As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical storm has been named in the central Atlantic Ocean. Melissa, which is moving very slowly west, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its likely impacts in the Caribbean in the short term. Melissa is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By the weekend, Melissa is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane as it sits over the warm waters of the Caribbean.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761187371356.png">The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center illustrates the chaos. The newest cone has Melissa strengthening to a category 4 hurricane.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1761187434711.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Hurricane watches (in pink) were issued for portions of Haiti, and tropical storm watches were issued for Jamaica. This means that hurricane or tropical storm force conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 154713-1761169663292.png">Rainfall totals for Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) are likely to be between 6-12".<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 190559-1761181580271.png">Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png"><h1>The Uncertainty</h1>The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out where Melissa will be and WHAT it will be by the end of the weekend. That's how long it will take to start to move substantially. Why? Right now, Melissa is parked between two different areas of high pressure. Those are playing a tug-of-war style game for the right to steer Melissa.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 162353-1761085438917.png">As many of our recently back-loaded tropical seasons have reminded us, October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Jesse Kelley

Melissa Forecast To Become CAT 4 Hurricane in the Caribbean

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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NORTHWEST - As we head through the work week, we'll have some dry time through most of Thursday before our next frontal boundary aims at the Pacific Northwest late Thursday into early Friday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-22 rnw bams-1761180962106.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>According to the National Weather Service, this next event will be considered another "atmospheric river" because of the richness of the moisture being funneled in from the Pacific. On the AR (atmospheric river) forecast scale, we'll be between an AR2 and an AR3 along the West Coasts of Oregon and Washington State.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 073907-1761140362480.png">Based on the AR scale, an AR3 is a balance of both beneficial and hazardous.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 164231-1760913773685.png">We spoke with Chad from the Center of Western Weather and Water Extremes about what exactly Atmospheric Rivers are.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/PKG_TRT_5.33_UPCOMING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS WITH CW3E_ALANA CAMERON_BD_E0102125-1761170244851.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has been forecasting rainfall totals of a couple of inches as well, and our in-house forecast models show the snowfall totals in the higher elevations receiving several inches too. In house forecast models are showing snowfall for some of the higher terrain, too. Expect to see an active pattern through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 185620-1761180987785.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 185638-1761181003274.png">Be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Another Atmospheric River Late Week

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Dave Holder

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As a slow-moving upper-level low approaches from the west, its energy will combine with plentiful moisture, increasing chances for heavy downpours and high rainfall accumulation rates. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 171632-1761175234819.png">At the surface, moisture will pool along a lifting warm front by the end of the week and into the weekend. The upper-low will provide plenty of lift, creating heavy rainfall with the amount of deep moisture available.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 171650-1761175346717.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 171658-1761175359739.png">The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana on Friday and Saturday with a Level 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. These outlooks will likely be tweaked in the coming days, with an upgrade not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 171707-1761175477939.png">This entire area has been unusually dry over the last few weeks. San Antonio, for example, has not measured any amount of rain so far this October! This incoming system will most certainly put an end to that!Check back with Weather Nation for the latest information. You can always get your South-Central regional forecast every 30 past the hour.

Growing Flooding Concern in Texas on Friday and Saturday

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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An area of low pressure in the Pacific has moved onshore today, bringing showers, a few storms, and sprinkles of high-elevation snowfall. It will continue to bring some beneficial rain and snow to parts of the southwest, including California and Colorado. A few inches of snow will be possible in the Colorado Rockies.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 190311-1761181396044.png">However, it's where that system ends up by the weekend that is raising some eyebrows. As this system emerges out of the Rockies, it will be moving into notably warmer temperatures, which could be just enough to power storms into the severe threshold.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 150040-1761166845861.png">But will this system have enough ingredients to talk about another weekend severe weather event? The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting areas of New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma for the threat of severe weather by Thursday and Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 150100-1761166867991.png">There is also a risk for isolated tornadoes in parts of Northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 150146-1761166931926.png">Rainfall is another big component of this system. Our in-house weather models indicate the potential for widespread 2-3" of rain. Some areas look to see 5"+ of rainfall into the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 190354-1761181439557.png">Below is the latest on the forecast timing of the heavy rainfall and storms:<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-22 rsc bnamsss-1761181497384.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest updates on the strong storms and potential for flooding. You can always find more details in your Central Regional Forecast :30 past the hour.

Cut-Off Low Brings Rain, Snow, & Strong Storms Late-Week

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GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving over the northern U.S. since last weekend and early this week, bringing along with it gusty winds, scattered showers, and cooler temperatures.As the upper-level trough and surface front move over the Great Lakes, they'll be ushering in cooler air above warmer sea surface temperatures. The contrast between the two can enhance lake-effect showers. It's not quite cold enough for lake-effect snow with this system. These off-and-on showers getting dragged over the Great Lakes will carry on for the next couple of days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-22 east-1761181250450.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With cold temperatures being ushered in behind as well, temperatures will drop into the 30s and 40s across parts of the Central Plains and Mid Atlantic! Wind chill values will have some spits flirting with the 20s overnight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761159830610.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761159866622.png">As a result, Frost and Freeze Alerts have been issued through Friday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 190100-1761181349767.png">For more details on what the forecast looks like once this low moves out, be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation, we stream 24/7.

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, & Cooler Air

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

Jackie Brown

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k overnight-1760926909056.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As for severe weather, not much is expected behind this front. The SPC only calling for general thunderstorms in the forecast for some of the coastal northeast cities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1760955877378.png"> With regards to rainfall, the northeast is not totally out of the woods yet. We still have a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956041292.png"> The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201910-1760926771887.png">In fact, on Sunday night, a tornado warning happened just south of the D.C. area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201521-1760926794802.png"><h1>Total Accumulation</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956184805.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Adrian Hernandez

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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https://youtu.be/i-_fIlQrrK8

Pea size, baseball size, even grapefruit size?

There are many everyday items that we can use to determine the best estimate of a hail stone.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90381 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/hail-size-chart-pics.jpg" alt="" width="630" height="617" />

Courtesy: NOAA/National Weather Service

Pea size hail is ¼" in diameter and hail at ¾" is the width of a penny.

When hail is 1" in diameter, that’s the same size as a quarter and also when hail size is considered "severe" (or large enough to potentially cause damage).

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90382" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/quart-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Some of the most destructive hail that falls measures at least 2" in diameter!

Tennis ball size is 2 ½", baseball size measures 2.75", tea cup size is 3", and softball size measures 4" in diameter.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90383" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/weldon-1-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Did you know hail can be even larger than that?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1258580136699420674

The biggest hailstone ever recorded was near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010, coming in at 8” in diameter!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90384" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/viv-2-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Just remember -- before you go outside to measure the size of hail that fell in your backyard, wait until the storm has moved far enough away so you can safely make your observation.

For WeatherNation, I’m <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Understanding Hail Size

Melissa Forecast To Become CAT 4 Hurricane in the Caribbean

As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its f

Another Atmospheric River Late Week

NORTHWEST - As we head through the work week,

Growing Flooding Concern in Texas on Friday and Saturday

As a slow-moving upper-level low approaches f

Cut-Off Low Brings Rain, Snow, & Strong Storms Late-Week

An area of low pressure in the Pacific has mo

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, & Cooler Air

GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

October has been relatively quiet in terms of