WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1>The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, with no signs of slowing down.<h2>Rachel</h2>Rachel continues to impact the western Mexico coastline, moving west through the weekend. At times, this storm will run into some wind shear and weaken somewhat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 184736-1791161261642.png"><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>We now have a new area being monitored in the Gulf waters. It's a medium chance of development, but with how inactive it has been in the Atlantic Basin this year, we will be watching this closely. Plenty of ensembles and AI models develop something in the Gulf, but it's too early to know what at this juncture. Isaias is the next name on the list in the Atlantic. Be sure to check back for more tropical updates if you live along or will be traveling to the Gulf Coast over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 184631-1791161204653.png">Some forecast models, in this case the GFS, point to a center of circulation forming in the Gulf by Thursday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 184900-1791161366666.png"><h1>El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 082933-1791124216732.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Taban Sharifi

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active; Area of Interest in Atlantic

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Adrian Hernandez

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A noticeable change in the weather is on the way for millions across the Great Lakes and Northeast as some of the coldest air since spring moves into the region.&nbsp;After an unusually warm start to October, a push of Canadian air will send temperatures tumbling over the next several days. The transition could eventually bring the season’s first widespread frost and freeze to portions of the northern United States.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073235-1791034366761.png">Check out how cold the temperatures will be for the Northeast early next week. This cold air could kill temperature sensitive vegetation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 043327-1791110022241.png">The cooldown marks a dramatic change following the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather across the eastern United States.&nbsp;October is typically when the first freeze becomes increasingly common across the Midwest and Northeast, although the exact timing varies considerably depending on elevation and location.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073713-1791034643040.png">For many across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the upcoming cold snap could provide the clearest sign yet that the warm days of early fall are beginning to fade.&nbsp;Stay Tuned for more details in the Eastern Regional forecast on WeatherNation TV :10 past the hour.

Jackie Brown

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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An area of high pressure will remain locked out west, and this means we see the potential for record highs this week! Multiple records will be challenged as this ridge of high pressure brings the heat! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/potential record highs -1791155277483.png">Heat alerts remain in place over the next few days as temperatures will run 10-20 degrees above average for some! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 061329-1791116050573.jpg">Check out temperatures in Los Angeles. The average high is normally 75°, but temperatures will reach 101° on Monday! Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s for Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/record high tempsss -1791155251867.png">The NW will also be running above average. Spokane and Missoula normally see temps in the 60d for this time of year but will be in the upper 70s to around 80.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/reord high temps 2 -1791155263258.png">Tune into WeatherNation at :50 past the hour for more on your Western Regional Forecast.

Record Heat Returns to the West

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Deep tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf is combining with an approaching cold front, setting the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Excessive rainfall will be likely over the next few days. Here are the outlooks for the week. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/exsssss-1791155963459.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Sunday’s greatest flooding concern will focus along portions of the central Gulf Coast, including areas from Louisiana east toward the Florida Panhandle.&nbsp;A tropical wave moving through the Gulf is transporting an unusually moisture-rich air mass toward the coast. Atmospheric moisture levels are expected to reach near-record or record territory for early October in some locations.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1791058490540.png"><h1>Timing</h1>After all the heavy rain throughout the Southeast on Saturday and more heavy rain will continue as a frontal boundary lingers. As this front meets moisture expect rain to follow along the front. As this front moves south, heavy rain will be in MS, AL and GA. through tonight and on Monday. By Tuesday the heaviest rainfall will be in Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/hehfffff-1791155806950.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Here's a look at the rainfall totals. Some localized totals of 5- 6 inches will be possible!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/heavy rianfslll-1791156120616.png">The long term forecast keeps the Gulf Coast very soggy into the middle of October. At least the temperatures are cooling off behind these fronts heading into the month of October.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 070128-1791032535237.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation TV for additional details.

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

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Heavy rain continues across parts of Central and South Texas for the rest of the weekend. Moisture continues to pile up along the Gulf Coast from an area of low pressure in the Gulf. Luckily, a cold front is heading south to try to dry things out heading into next week. The best chances of rain and storms will be along the immediate coast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-04 04-11-01-1791108693923.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Through Tuesday, Deep South Texas can see rainfall amounts between 3-6" of rain closer to the coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041145-1791108721890.png">Right on queue, another MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding has been issued in Texas again. This time, well to the south, where the heaviest of the rainfall is expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041315-1791108808781.png">Just like for the Southeast, Texas and the rest of the Southern Plains looks very soggy for the long term in the next 7-10 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041343-1791108842343.png">For more on this forecast, tune in :30 past the hour for your full Central Regional.

Kevin Schneider

Stalled Front Heightens Flood Risk Today

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Tracey Anthony

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"><h2>TIMING</h2>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"> Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Patrick Crawford

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png">The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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https://youtu.be/i-_fIlQrrK8

Pea size, baseball size, even grapefruit size?

There are many everyday items that we can use to determine the best estimate of a hail stone.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90381 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/hail-size-chart-pics.jpg" alt="" width="630" height="617" />

Courtesy: NOAA/National Weather Service

Pea size hail is ¼" in diameter and hail at ¾" is the width of a penny.

When hail is 1" in diameter, that’s the same size as a quarter and also when hail size is considered "severe" (or large enough to potentially cause damage).

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90382" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/quart-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Some of the most destructive hail that falls measures at least 2" in diameter!

Tennis ball size is 2 ½", baseball size measures 2.75", tea cup size is 3", and softball size measures 4" in diameter.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90383" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/weldon-1-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Did you know hail can be even larger than that?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1258580136699420674

The biggest hailstone ever recorded was near Vivian, South Dakota in 2010, coming in at 8” in diameter!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-90384" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/viv-2-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Just remember -- before you go outside to measure the size of hail that fell in your backyard, wait until the storm has moved far enough away so you can safely make your observation.

For WeatherNation, I’m <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Understanding Hail Size

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active; Area of Interest in Atlantic

Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

A noticeable change in the weather is on the

Record Heat Returns to the West

An area of high pressure will remain locked o

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

Deep tropical moisture streaming north from t

Stalled Front Heightens Flood Risk Today

Heavy rain continues across parts of Central

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of