Kevin Schneider

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Tropical Storm Chantal has formed, with winds reaching 40 mph. Tropical Storm Watches have been upgraded to warnings in areas where higher winds are expected tonight into Sunday. Heavy rain is expected to be the biggest impact with Chantal, as the slow-moving storm spins for a few days in the southeast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 103517-1751733334363.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 061253-1751717592689.jpg"><h1>Forecast</h1>As Chantal slowly moves northward, you can expect more scattered showers and storms for the rest of the holiday weekend! The rain coverage will diminish some for Florida as rain chances increase for the Carolinas starting this weekend into early next week. The main impact of this system remains the same with heavy rain and gusty winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1751683557956.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 061359-1751717646560.jpg">Catch more details on the southeast during your Southeastern Regional Forecast, :10 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Tropical Storm Chantal Forms This Morning

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Multiple Flash Flood Emergencies were issued Friday morning and again Saturday morning as heavy rainfall moved through portions of the Texas Hill Country. Several locations accumulated over a foot of rainfall in a short amount of time, including San Angelo, which recorded almost 13" of rainfall. The yearly average of rainfall for San Angelo is around 21".<h1>FRIDAY</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1751682972637.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941108484847886805" src="https://x.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1941108484847886805"></div>Flash flooding was also occurring along the Guadalupe River near Kerrville.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941126276699619470" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1941126276699619470"></div>The water rose extremely rapidly, with river gauges along the Guadalupe showing a nearly 30-foot rise within an hour. This water will continue to flow down the Llano, Guadalupe, and other rivers, creeks, and streams over the coming hours. For example, the Guadalupe near Spring Branch last recorded about 1.5' of water, but is forecasted to see a quick rise with a rest at nearly 36 ft! This is an extremely dangerous situation!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1751683190443.png"><h1>SATURDAY</h1>Another nearly stationary cluster of storms developed overnight. Some areas just west of Round Rock have already picked up more than 10 inches of rain on top of what fell Friday. Flash Flood Emergencies were issued for the area just northwest of Austin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 034217-1751708649026.png">As rivers again rise, please heed the Flash Flood Emergencies and get to higher ground as soon as they're issued.<h1>WHAT HAPPENED?</h1>A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was spinning around the area the past few mornings. That helps generate showers and storms - it's basically it's own low-pressure system. That spun its way through a very moist airmass. But without any upper-level winds to help push these storms anywhere, it rained and rained over the same places for extended periods of time. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-05 07-30-23-1751724329889.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Some high-resolution models will keep slow-moving storms in the vicinity into the evening. There's a chance we get more Sunday, but there is little confidence in exactly where.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-05 08-06-40-1751724470466.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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Following Flossie, the Eastern Pacific remains quite active as the National Hurricane Center is tracking two areas of interest southwest of Mexico. Invest 96E or the red highlighted area has a high chance of development in the next couple of days. The region outlined in yellow is for another low expected to form later in the week. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 103343-1751733237380.jpg">The spaghetti plots show 96-E remaining well south of Mexico as it churns westward. This will limit impacts to the west coast of Mexico but interests in Hawaii should keep an eye on this system for the potential of increased rain chances next week. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 040404-1751710453661.png">This system could bring stronger currents to Mexico's coast, but if it remains weak before moving farther west impacts should be minimal.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-05 04-07-18-1751710464055.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For more details on this forecast, be sure to check out the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/020252.shtml">National Hurricane Center's </a>website.

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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NORTHERN PLAINS - A frontal system continues to move out of the Plains and into the Upper Midwest, spurring showers and thunderstorms as it does so. Wind gusts were again significant across the northern Plains on Friday afternoon and evening.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-04 205134-1751683902230.png"><h2>Severe Weather Outlooks</h2>The risk for severe storms continues on Saturday, moving east with a MARGINAL (1 out of 5) outlook issued from Lake Superior south to Kansas City. Wind impacts appear to be the primary hazard.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 042003-1751710838447.png"><h2>Timing</h2>A few strong morning storms will give way to more widespread thunderstorms along the frontal boundary through the afternoon. Some storms may persist after dark, but the afternoon and evening hours should see most of the strong storms. As the front stalls somewhat, or tilts more, a few more strong storms will be possible on Sunday from Missouri to the east into Indiana. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-05 04-21-30-1751710921843.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Rainfall Forecast</h2>While exact totals remain uncertain, localized downpours of 3 inches or more are possible where storms stall or train. Isolated flash flooding is possible. Seek higher ground if a flash flood warning is issued.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 042046-1751710855043.png">Stay safe this holiday weekend, and be sure to check back for the latest updates on storm timing and severity.

Severe Storms in the Midwest Continue To Spoil the Holiday Weekend

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AAA is expecting over 70 million travelers to take to the roads and skies over the Fourth of July Weekend. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall could throw a wrench into those plans, as slow-moving systems keep rain chances around.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 073837-1751290861562.png">After a hot work week, especially out west, the temperature for the 4th of July will be near seasonal for many. Folks in the Upper-Midwest will see temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-04 043305-1751625473813.png">A few spots will see some slightly warmer than normal temperatures, with a few cooler than normal!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-03 211458-1751598907955.png">By the evening, time for fireworks, there will be a few areas of potential showers! Plan accordingly for the evening festivities. This is around 9 PM ET.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-04 043315-1751625481746.png">If you are in Florida, there will be increased chances for showers and storms, with an area of interest being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Related Article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-center-monitoring-florida-for-tropical-development">Hurricane Center Monitoring Florida for Tropical Development</a>Did you know this is how fireworks work? Different elements emit different wavelengths of light when heated. That results in the various colors you see when watching a fireworks show!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/0701-1751375281844.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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NORTHEAST -A shortwave trough will swing through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing the threat of afternoon thunderstorms along an advancing cold front. Warm and humid air ahead of the boundary will help fuel the risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.The SPC has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms in these areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1751573415086.jpg">Storms look to start during the day in New York State, but the frontal boundary doesn't move towards the I-95 corridor and clear until later into the evening/nighttime frame.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-03 05-06-29-1751540825848.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This next frontal boundary is coming just a couple of days after significant flash flooding happened in the northeast, so the flooding threat where we have already seen rain may be more sensitive to flash flooding through the end of the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-03 042835-1751538519921.jpg">

Patrick Crawford

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

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NORTHWEST - Today, portions of Montana are under heat advisories until this evening for temperatures that could reach the century mark. Please know the signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke if you live in these areas.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940370908499136862" src="https://x.com/NWSGlasgow/status/1940370908499136862"></div>With hot temperatures in the forecast across these areas, there is also the risk of scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Montana through tonight. Damaging winds appear to be the main hazards.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 112106-1751476889436.png">The timing of these storms favors the peak of afternoon heating. But the help of an upper-level shortwave can bring these storms during "off hours" too. This frontal boundary eventually moves on to disturb the north-central U.S. in time for the holiday. More details on that are here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/rounds-of-severe-for-plains">Rounds of Severe For Plains.</a><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1751482808855.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Behind this system, temperatures drop down to more comfortable numbers for the holiday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 112142-1751477085378.png">Long-range outlooks out west look to favor above average temperatures, so be sure to join us for the latest on that on WeatherNation live on television.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 111153-1751477115181.png">

Chris Tomer

Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk

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The <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Prediction Center</a> has updated their <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outlook for May</a>, making some changes from the <a href="http://bit.ly/2Zt22Na" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous forecast issued a couple of weeks ago</a>. Warmer than normal weather is still expected along the East and West Coasts, but an area of colder than average temperatures has been added in the Plains. The precipitation forecast looks similar, with wetter than normal conditions in the Plains and drier than average weather in the Northwest.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1123309653318885376

Great news continues in the drought forecast, with only western Washington and coastal Georgia and South Carolina seeing potential drought conditions.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1123310142777327616

Weak El Nino conditions are expected throughout the upcoming month as warmer than normal Pacific Ocean temperatures are being observed. Current climate trends, soil moisture, model forecasts and global weather patterns were the main weather products used in the forecast, <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the Climate Prediction Center</a>.

For WeatherNation: <a href="http://bit.ly/2HhiTgF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Mace Michaels</a>

Updated May Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Tropical Storm Chantal Forms This Morning

Tropical Storm Chantal has formed, with winds

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

Multiple Flash Flood Emergencies were issued

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

Following Flossie, the Eastern Pacific remain

Severe Storms in the Midwest Continue To Spoil the Holiday Weekend

NORTHERN PLAINS - A frontal system continues

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

AAA is expecting over 70 million travelers to

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

NORTHEAST -A shortwave trough will swing thro

Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk

NORTHWEST - Today, portions of Montana are un