<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>After a slow start to the season tropical activity in the Atlantic is picking up and will likely continue to do so through the end of August. Erin is likely to be the first hurricane of the season by Friday as it moves northwest. In the Southern Gulf, we are keeping a close on an area of low pressure heading to NE Mexico and Texas!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/pic6-1755197252083.png"></p><h1>Erin</h1><p>Tropical Storm Erin is moving westward across the Atlantic and is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane over the weekend as it moves away from drier air and into warmer waters. Erin is projected to come close to the Leeward Islands Friday into Saturday. The Northeast Caribbean is now under Tropical Storm Watches. This is based on the latest forecast track, so if there area any changes to the track we will see more areas added to the alerts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755227161703.png"><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 2-1755206113331.jpg"></p><h2><strong>Steering Factors</strong></h2><p>Erin is forecasted to track westward, then take a curve to the north. The strength of the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will determine when Erin takes this turn northward. While the vast majority of models keep Erin off the East Coast, it's still too early to say with complete confidence.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-14 053535-1755171350634.png">Impacts - Rip Currents / Big Waves</h2><p>The strongest winds from Erin are likely to miss the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles to the north, but if Erin is a major hurricane it's tropical storm wind field could expand to include areas like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-14 053832-1755171544382.png">The certain impact will be increasing wave heights and dangerous currents from the Caribbean this weekend to the U.S. Atlantic Coast next week. Beach goers on the East Coast next week should be very cautious going into the water.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/FORECAST-1755205903671.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Gulf Low Pressure</h1><p>The National Hurricane Center is also watching an area of low pressure moving through the SW Gulf, known as the Bay of Campeche. The low is poorly organized and won't have much time to gain strength before it moves inland over Mexico/southern Texas on Friday. Heavy rain could spark isolated flooding issues on Friday in Texas.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 1-1755206061524.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 2-1755206068598.jpg"></p><p><em>RELATED ARTICLE: </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-issues-final-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast"><strong><em>CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast</em></strong></a></p><p>Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been off to a slow start the 2025 season. Before Dexter formed, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic was less than 15% of normal. Dexter more than doubled this stat, but it's still less than 30% of a typical year, even though we may be ahead of schedule when it comes to named storms. That being said, the bulk of seasonal activity is still ahead of us, with 88% of the annual energy occurring after the first week of August.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-14 054732-1755172059923.png"><br>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest tropical updates.</p>

Jesse Kelley

Tropics: Erin Forecast to Become a Hurricane

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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<p>The large heat dome in the Southwest has shifted eastward into the Plains. As a result, low pressure from the west and the flow around the high out east is bringing in moisture for monsoon showers and storms. Thursday brought some monsoon storms and more is expected into Friday and the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755226260271.png"></p><p>The best chance for showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. It is possible for a few overnight storms in the Desert Southwest. The main threats for the storms will be some gusty winds and heavy rain.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1755226520316.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>Over the next seven days, we are forecasting about an inch or two of rain in some locations. Some isolated flooding could be possible especially if heavy rain falls over burn scar areas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755226828226.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755226766615.png"></p>

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest

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<p>A deepening low-pressure system over Canada will intensify the energy over the northern tier of the country, leading to stormy conditions. This developing system is expected to drive a cold front at the surface level eastward across the Northern Plains, setting the stage for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Areas from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest will experience severe weather.</p><p>A <strong>Slight </strong>threat for severe weather remains in effect through the overnight and early Friday morning for portions of the Northern Plains, including South Dakota. The primary threats include damaging wind gusts, isolated significant hail, and tornadoes. Some storms may also bring torrential downpours, leading to localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying or poorly drained areas.<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 1-1755219592484.jpg"></p><p>Significantly sized hailstones mean hail 2" in diameter or larger; this threat will be possible along parts of I-29 and I-94.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 2-1755219633750.jpg"></p><p>Overnight storms will gradually weaken by Friday morning in Minnesota. The leftover storms will kick off new storms in Wisconsin and Minnesota on Friday afternoon and evening. Along the same front, a new low develops in the Dakotas to push more strong to severe storms eastwards into the weekend.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1755224998804.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>On Friday and Saturday, there is a severe threat on both days with main threats being damaging winds and heavy rain. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755225032889.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755225148120.png"></p><p>On the other side of the coin, heavy rain will be an issue with the repeated rounds of severe storms. Through the next few days, rainfall amounts between 3-5" can be found across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755225416348.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates on the forecast. You can always find your full Central Regional Forecast:30 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p>

Active Pattern: Northern Plains to the Great Lakes

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<p>Numerous wildfires continue to burn across the Western United States including three "Megafires," or fires burning over 100,000 acres: Lee wildfire, Dragon Bravo wildfire, and Gifford wildfire. In addition to the warm weather and dry fuels, fire spread could be accelerated the next few days with more dry thunderstorms and gusty conditions in the Four Corners.</p><h1>GIFFORD FIRE</h1><p>Burning as California's largest wildfire in 2025, the Gifford Fire has torched over 130k acres. The good news has been the containment numbers in recent days. That has increased to 40% as of Thursday morning.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/VON_081125_RSW_SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, CA_3 OF 3 BEST ONE CLOSE UP VIDEO OF CREWS WORKING THE GIFFORD FIRE_TW_@SBCFIREINFO_MS_E081225-1755015460725.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>LEE FIRE</h1><p>A large fire erupted on the western slope of the Rockies. The Lee Fire has only been burning for a little over a week, but has burned almost as many acres as the Gifford Fire, 123k acres. Most of the poor air quality has been locked up around Grand Junction, fluctuating at times.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755225737533.png"></p><p></p><h1>DRAGON BRAVO FIRE</h1><p>One of the largest fires in Arizona history, the Dragon Bravo Fire, has continued to smolder along the Northern Rim of the Grand Canyon. It has burned more than 144k acres, making it the 7th largest in state history.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1953931727044223408" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1953931727044223408"></div><p></p><h1></h1><h1>FORECAST</h1><p><strong>Red Flag Warnings</strong> remain in effect through Thursday for some areas. Conditions remain favorable for fires to start and spread.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755225780507.png"></p><p></p><p>Additionally, lightning will still have the potential to spark more fires. There are isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms possible through Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-14 070416-1755176717754.png"></p><p>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.</p><p></p>

Several Megafires Burning in the West, More Dry T-Storms Possible

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p></p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t7PjF9VFI2c" start="0"></iframe></div><p></p><p><em>Title Image Provided By: <span style="color: rgb(85, 85, 85)">NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)</span></em></p><p>The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently certified a new "megaflash" as the longest in the world. The flash, which stretched from Eastern Texas to Kansas City, MO occurred in October 2017 during a mesoscale convective system. The flash covered 515 miles across a notorious stormy hot spot within the United States. A distance that would normally take eight or nine hours to drive, was covered in mere seconds. </p><p>The new record surpasses the previous from a 2020 thunderstorm across the Southern United States. So how did a lightning strike from 2017 somehow come out the blue to beat the 2020 record? </p><p>The WMO said this particular flash wasn't identified initially during the 2017 analysis, but was later discovered after re-examination of data.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(15, 23, 42)">“This new record clearly demonstrates the incredible power of the natural environment. Additionally, WMO assessment of environmental extremes such as this lightning distance record testify to the significant scientific progress in observing, documenting and evaluating such events. It is likely that even greater extremes still exist, and that we will be able to observe them as additional high-quality lightning measurements accumulate over time,” said Professor Randall Cerveny, rapporteur of Weather and Climate Extremes for WMO.</span></p><p>You can learn more about other Weather and Climate Extremes through the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://wmo.int/site/world-weather-and-climate-extremes-archive">World Meteorological Organizations Archive. </a></p>

The 2017 Megaflash: The World's Longest Lightning

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Chris Tomer

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<p>The long-range temperature trend towards the end of August shows higher confidence that temperatures will remain above average. Even this week, temperatures are feeling the summertime heat. But, there's a sharp cold front moving through with a 20 degree temperature drop for parts of the Pacific Northwest.</p><h1>Relief!</h1><p>A sharp cold front delivered cooler air to the PNW on Wednesday. That will drop temperatures substantially from the low 90's in Seattle on Tuesday to the 70's. Another reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in this weekend, but that one has some rain chances with it. I think we'll take it give how the first part of the week was shaping up.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-13 164022-1755124826854.png">Although this front in the Northwest won't bring rain to the region, there will be rain in the forecast later in the week with another incoming system.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/08132-1755125133242.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>In the Southwest, we had a few record highs on Wednesday. A small cooldown is anticipated for the rest of the week. Although for the desert areas, a small cooldown drop highs to near normal which is still above 100 degrees.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755142014621.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer sw 3 day highs-1755129927501.jpg"></p><h2>Northeast</h2><p>The heat continues (ahead of a cold front) on Wednesday with additional record highs in Maine.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1755142092712.png"></p><p>Temperatures have cooled significantly since Tuesday with some areas 15° cooler compared to the last 24 hours.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-13 164216-1755124976442.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.</p>

Coast to Coast Heat With Some Relief & Storms

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<p>Get a blanket and find some dark skies! One of the most prolific meteor showers of the year will peak during the upcoming week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER PERSEID-1754872084317.jpg"></p><p>The Perseid Meteor Shower typically reaches a peak during the second week of August as the Earth moves through the debris field left by Comet Swift-Tuttle, which makes a trip through the solar system once every 133 years, last visiting the inner-solar system in 1992. Debris left by the comet dives through the Earth's atmosphere to create the beautiful meteor shower we expect. <br><br>2025 isn't expected to be the best year to see the meteors, unfortunately, as the waning gibbous moon will rise in the evening, washing out any faint meteors that may have been seen under a new moon. Ideal conditions can produce 50-100 meteors per hour, but with the brightness from the moon, expect 20-50 under dark skies away from city lights.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 052401-1754829026071.png"></p><h2>A Pair of Planets</h2><p>Another fun astronomical event will be gracing the morning skies through much of this week - the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER PERSIED 2-1754872142561.jpg"></p><p>These planets will appear to be right next to each other in the morning sky, even through they're still millions of miles apart! They will appear closest together Tuesday morning, with only about 1° of separation between them.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 052347-1754829006824.png">WILL THE WEATHER COOPERATE</h1><p>Clouds could hinder many in the east Tuesday night. But many will have a decent shot at seeing the skies.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer perseid sat-1755045274886.jpg"></p>

Kevin Schneider

Perseid Meteor Shower Peaks This Week - How to Watch

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The <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Prediction Center</a> has updated their <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outlook for May</a>, making some changes from the <a href="http://bit.ly/2Zt22Na" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous forecast issued a couple of weeks ago</a>. Warmer than normal weather is still expected along the East and West Coasts, but an area of colder than average temperatures has been added in the Plains. The precipitation forecast looks similar, with wetter than normal conditions in the Plains and drier than average weather in the Northwest.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1123309653318885376

Great news continues in the drought forecast, with only western Washington and coastal Georgia and South Carolina seeing potential drought conditions.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1123310142777327616

Weak El Nino conditions are expected throughout the upcoming month as warmer than normal Pacific Ocean temperatures are being observed. Current climate trends, soil moisture, model forecasts and global weather patterns were the main weather products used in the forecast, <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the Climate Prediction Center</a>.

For WeatherNation: <a href="http://bit.ly/2HhiTgF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Mace Michaels</a>

Updated May Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Tropics: Erin Forecast to Become a Hurricane

After a slow start to the season tropical act

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest

The large heat dome in the Southwest has shif

Active Pattern: Northern Plains to the Great Lakes

A deepening low-pressure system over Canada w

Several Megafires Burning in the West, More Dry T-Storms Possible

Numerous wildfires continue to burn across th

The 2017 Megaflash: The World's Longest Lightning

Title Image Provided By: NOAA/Cooperative Ins

Coast to Coast Heat With Some Relief & Storms

The long-range temperature trend towards the

Perseid Meteor Shower Peaks This Week - How to Watch

Get a blanket and find some dark skies! One o