Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
updated the November outlook
. Only minor changes have been made from the previous outlook
issued a couple of weeks ago. Warmer than average weather is predicted for the Northeast, Great Lakes and Southwest. Below average temperatures are not forecast for anywhere across the lower 48 states.
The Great Lakes, Northeast and Northwest are expected to see above average precipitation. Drier than normal weather is forecast for the southern half of the nation, which will likely lead to a continuation of drought conditions in the West and expansion across the southern Plains and Florida.
In October, La Nina conditions were observed in the Pacific Ocean. Those observations are the driving force behind the trends for the November outlook, as a moderate strength La Nina is predicted for the month. Coastal sea surface temperatures and model forecasts also influenced the outlook.
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La Nina occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean show a general trend of cooling, the opposite of an El Nino. During La Nina periods, the Jet Stream is less active in the Southern U.S. This usually leads to less storms systems and below average precipitation. Cooler than normal weather typically occurs across the northern tier of the country and occasionally wetter periods as well.