Several changes have been made to the October outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The previous outlook had most of the nation seeing a good chance for warmer than normal weather. The updated forecast, issued earlier this week, keeps above average temperatures in the East and South, but now calls for cooler than normal weather for the Northern Plains and Northwest.
Our final October outlook anticipates continuation of the wet pattern we have observed recently across much of the Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes with odds increased for above-normal precipitation. https://t.co/JI2DUvhln5 pic.twitter.com/npOLEQiGc1
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) October 1, 2019
Wetter than normal conditions are predicted across over most of the northern tier of the nation, Plains, and parts of the Southwest. Drier than average weather is now in the forecast for most of the Southeast. This will lead to an expansion of drought conditions in the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. The Southern Plains and Southwest will see a continuation of the drought already underway.
A dry start to October along with a continuation of above normal temperatures is likely to result in additional #drought expansion across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Texas. https://t.co/9pT87CSQMB pic.twitter.com/KaKD0QzxRr
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) October 1, 2019
The Climate Prediction Center notes that the “October monthly outlook always represents a considerable challenge in short term climate prediction.” Since the month falls during a transitional season period, October “historically is one in which predictability is low.” Updated model guidance was the main reason for the changes from the earlier outlook. Long term climate trends were also one of the main factors used in the forecast.