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Updated September Outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

9 Sep 2019, 5:18 am

Last week, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated their outlook for September. Warmth is still expected across much of the nation, especially in the Southeast and West. The Northeast and Great Lakes were removed from the warmer than normal forecast, as an area of below average temperatures were expanded to include the Northern Plains and Great Lakes.


Most of the Plains are still expected to see a wetter than average month and this has been expanded to include the Southwest. Another area of above average precipitation has been included for most of the Eastern Seaboard and portions of the Southeast.

Model guidance, statistical tools based on global patterns, and the influences of current soil moisture and coastal sea surface conditions were the main influences of the September outlook. The Climate Prediction Center is expecting a ridge to dominate much of the Western U.S., leading to above average temperatures. The arrival of Hurricane Dorian lead to the above average rainfall forecast for much of the East Coast.

The colder than average forecast in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes is supported by wetter than normal soil moisture conditions and a northerly flow east of the ridge, leading to troughs and more active Jet Stream over the region.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

About the author
Chelsea is from Indianapolis, Indiana. Although it may be the Hoosier state, she attended Purdue University and is a diehard Boilermaker fan. She has a BS in atmospheric science and a MS in environmental policy and management with a concentration in energy and sustainability from the University of Denver. Chelsea loves the ever-changing patterns of the atmosphere which led her to participate in ex... Load Moretensive severe weather research for the Red Cross during her undergrad years. Before coming to WeatherNation, Chelsea worked in West Virginia at WSAZ and in West Tennessee at WBBJ where she did it all from reporting to sports but her passion is weather.