[Along the beach at Nags Head, North Carolina. Photo by Tim Bish on Unsplash]
On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the July forecast. Summer’s heat will be felt in the West with warmer than normal weather anticipated. The Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines are also expected to see above average temperatures. Cooler than normal temperatures are in the forecast through the central Plains and western Great Lakes.
A wetter than average July is favored for the central and high Plains. Two small areas of drier than normal weather have been highlighted: along the central Gulf of Mexico states and for northwestern Washington.
The Climate Prediction Center states that “a weak El Nino is predicted to continue” with a 66% chance of El Nino continuing through summer, and a 50%-55% chance of it persisting through the fall and winter seasons. El Nino is one of the main influences in the July forecast, along with very high soil moisture and heavy rainfall over the last several months in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Model guidance and typical July climatology was also considered.
The high soil moisture in the Plains lead to the cooler and wetter forecast through much of the middle of the nation. Model forecasts and El Nino influenced the warmer temperature forecast in the West, East, and South.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels