NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
issued the 90 day outlook for July to September
on Thursday. A continued hot summer may be ahead, with the trend of warmer than normal weather expected. The forecast calls for above average temperatures across the West, North, and eastern quarter of the nation.
In the Northwest, a drier than normal 90 day period is expected which will likely lead to an expansion of drought conditions. Above normal precipitation is in the forecast from the Southern Plains through the Southeast and into the Northeast.
With dry weather persisting in the West and Northern Plains, the summer months are a prime period when soil moisture values can impact temperature and precipitation according to the CPC discussion
. This lead to the stronger probability of warmer than normal temperatures in the forecast. Water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are near average, so La Nina or El Nino is not present with the trends of neutral conditions influencing the forecast. Coastal water temperatures and long term model forecasts were also used for the July through September outlook.