Dave Holder

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Another significant trough is forecasted to dig into the Southwest through the weekend. As this occurs, strong upper-level winds will move atop a very unstable airmass. With the combination of these ingredients coming together, there is a growing concern for significant severe weather on Sunday and Monday, particularly across Oklahoma and Kansas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 163046-1747262018110.png">As the strong low-pressure system approaches, southerly surface winds will increase ahead of it. As this occurs, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as heat and humidity grow. By Sunday afternoon, some of the highest instability levels of the season so far look possible. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 163057-1747262018108.png">We're still a few days out, so the fine details have yet to come into focus. However, longer-range models hint at vigorous thunderstorm development both Sunday and Monday afternoon along a stalled-out boundary and sharp dryline. At this point, it appears that all severe thunderstorm hazards are possible, including tornadoes. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/okc-1747262034308.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Please continue to check the forecast and stay with us at WeatherNation as further details come in!

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Southern Plains by Sunday

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Kevin Schneider

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We've been stuck in a pretty stagnant pattern recently. With a few cut-off lows and strong ridges of high pressure, the day-to-day pattern has struggled to change much. The trough in the Pacific Northwest will try to change that later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 070532-1747227941367.png">This trough will spark storms on the High Plains Wednesday before closing in on the Middle Mississippi River Valley late this week.<h1>OVERVIEW</h1>As this trough swings in, it will run into VERY warm temperatures. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs across the High Plains will get back to the 80's and 90's. The warm and humid air will more than likely help power strong to severe storms later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-11 103741-1746981482962.png">While a few ingredients look to come together sometime around Thursday, a lot can still change between now and then. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas around the Chicagoland later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-12 063317-1747053207873.jpg">As details become a little clearer throughout the week, things like timing and storm mode will become a little clearer too.<h1>WEDNESDAY</h1>As our cold front swings in, strong storms will be possible during the day. Areas from North Dakota to Nebraska will have to watch out for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. However, we expect the tornado window to be fairly narrow in the afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 162509-1747261539809.png">Today's cold front moves into the Dakotas and into the peak of afternoon heating is when storms look to get going. The heaviest of the precipitation is expected through tonight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/05-14_RNC 12Z-1747246532800.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>THURSDAY</h1>This is where things get interesting. The amount of unstable air makes ANY forecaster nervous to say this: the cap looks like it should win vs the worst of the worst environments.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 070147-1747141345956.png">What does that mean? If storms fire in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, or western Kentucky, they could become violent. Where we expect storms to develop is where the Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk for severe storms on Thursday:<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 162520-1747261704526.png">What to expect: A cold front should be able to beat any capping inversion eventually, but that normally means a line of storms to track, not discrete cells. One of these organized clusters of storms normally rolls through in July &amp; August, but something like that is where we'd be leaning right now.What to do: If you live more in the Midwest, in Indiana, Illinois, or Kentucky, pay attention. Check back with the forecast, because some concerning ingredients could be in play. Right now, it's still a touch too early to know that a cap will keep a lid on storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-14 11-07-42-1747242489526.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>FRIDAY</h1>A lot of this will depend on what happens Thursday, so take this with a grain of salt. As the front continues to sag southward, expect more storms by the afternoon and evening. Friday features an Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 162525-1747261710049.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 070202-1747227730838.png">

Alana Cameron

Severe Weather Ramps Up Late Week

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ARIZONA - While the Bryce Fire has been burning for over a week now a new fire has scorched just as many acres in Arizona. A new fire, the Greer Fire, has torched over 7,000+ acres with little to no containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 163118-1747261893542.png">According to the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, the fire continues to burn in the region.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1922767831491579904" src="https://x.com/azstateforestry/status/1922767831491579904"></div> The fire weather concerns are continuing, with winds fanning any spark or a flame into a potential wildfire. Those winds reached 60 mph on Tuesday, pushing the Greer Fire through the wooded areas of Apache County. Winds today will likely reach the same numbers in the afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 103334-1747240430739.png">All of those winds could make things difficult on the roads, too. Blowing dust will be possible in the southern-most counties of New Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 163217-1747261948905.png">Ever wonder what to do if you're caught in a dust storm? Pull off of the road COMPLETELY and turn off your lights as soon as possible, to prevent other cars from running into the back of you.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 105044-1747241454397.png">The wildfire threat will back off a bit tomorrow, but won't disappear. An elevated risk for fire weather will carry us into Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 163221-1747261955737.png">

Wildfires Break Out in the Desert Southwest

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Here we go. Whoever wanted it to be Summer already got their wish down on the Southern Plains. Texas is heating up in a serious way as a strong ridge noses into the picture.Up to 110 stations across the U.S. could break records from today through Sunday. We expect this to be a prolonged heat wave, especially for those in Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 124220-1747248231461.png">Temperatures will range between a few degrees above average to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 124210-1747248237803.png">The National Weather Service (NWS) has upgraded heat advisories to extreme heat warnings across Texas. This includes cities such as San Antonio, where records could fall for days on end.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 164241-1747262581934.png">Temperatures in San Antonio are likely to remain above 100 degrees all week long, outlooks project all the way through Sunday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 070104-1747227671865.png">With heat as intense as this, on a scale of limited to extreme, there are areas in Texas that will max out the scale this week with extreme heat danger expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 124202-1747248251757.png">How do you stay safe in this kind of heat? You have to remind yourself how early it is in the season for it. Your body is not adjusted to it coming out of Winter. The first big hot stretch of the year can always feel worse on the body and mind. Drink water early and often and don't push yourself too hard!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 074710-1747144046862.png">

Historic Heat Setting Up In Texas

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Flash Flood Emergencies were issued on Tuesday after heavy rain overwhelmed parts of Maryland and Virginia. A cut-off low continues to spin, bringing more chances for rain to many of the same locations on Wednesday.<h1>Rain reports last 24 hours:</h1><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/tomer rain reports-1747250568881.jpg">Setup:</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 071525-1747228617966.png"><h1>WHAT IS A CUT-OFF LOW?</h1>It's a ship without a sail. Sort of. Lows will dig out locations to go with the help of the jet stream. However, sometimes a low will become detached from the jet stream winds when they retreat to the north, leaving behind a persistent area of spin. That's been the case for much of this week, powering daily severe chances and heavy rain around the southeast.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1922426639914336399" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1922426639914336399"></div><h1>SLOW SYSTEM + TERRAIN</h1>On Tuesday, that low started to lift northeast and brought the rain threat up the I-95 corridor. However, this area is when topography becomes an issue, in the Appalachians. Heavy rain can often be exacerbated by elevation change, often acting to focus some of the worst impacts in localized areas. A pretty wide stripe of 3-6 inches of rain fell in mountainous terrain and brought life-threatening problems to western Maryland and Virginia.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-14 07-16-27-1747228643005.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Chris Tomer

Heavy Rain Triggers Flash Flood Emergencies Tuesday

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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MID-ATLANTIC - A slow-moving upper-level low will continue to move north into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic. Rainfall rates may reach upwards of 1-2" per hour. Flash flooding will be possible as it has been over the past several days. Tuesday brought several flash flood emergencies across the Mid-Atlantic.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 071031-1747228242712.png">Through tonight, more storms will be around, capable of damaging winds and some large hail. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, either. The Storm Prediction Center has issued MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 122633-1747247790356.png">The timing of these storms will continue today, Thursday, and Friday. Some storms try to organize on Wednesday, bringing in isolated damaging winds as the main threat for severe weather. There is also the potential for a tornado or two into northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/05-14_rne new-1747247809703.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The severe weather threat will continue across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, as a warm front will left into the region. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-14 123717-1747247848974.png">Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for the eastern regional forecast for more updates.

Rain & Storms From The Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic

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ABOVE - Winter is hanging on for the Northern Rockies with winter weather alerts remaining in place through Wednesday, May 14th. Winter Storm Warnings (in pink) are in place for snowfall totals up to 3 feet above 7000 feet and winds gusting as high as 30 mph.What's causing this? A storm system moving through the Rockies will deliver rain, thunderstorms, and snow through Wednesday, May 14th.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/tomer west setup-1747161663564.jpg">Timing</h1>Scattered development looks to favor the afternoon hours for many spots, but snow will carry on for the higher elevations through Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/05-13 rnw-1747187315676.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The rain/snow line will run about 7500-8000ft. The higher elevations could get 6-12 inches of snow accumulation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 193206-1747187165352.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 193157-1747187173814.png">This storm system will also deliver cooler temps.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 194637-1747187206482.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest!

Wildfires Break Out in the Desert Southwest

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Southern Plains by Sunday

Another significant trough is forecasted to d

Severe Weather Ramps Up Late Week

We've been stuck in a pretty stagnant pattern

Wildfires Break Out in the Desert Southwest

ARIZONA - While the Bryce Fire has been burni

Historic Heat Setting Up In Texas

Here we go. Whoever wanted it to be Summer al

Heavy Rain Triggers Flash Flood Emergencies Tuesday

Flash Flood Emergencies were issued on Tuesda

Rain & Storms From The Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic

MID-ATLANTIC - A slow-moving upper-level low

Rain & Snow For The Northern Rockies

ABOVE - Winter is hanging on for the Northern