The updated May outlook was issued late last week by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The temperature forecast was fine-tuned from the previous forecast issued in the middle of April. A pocket of colder than normal temperatures has been added for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Warmer than average weather is still expected across the most of the West and southern tier of the nation.
Our final outlook for the month of May sees best chances for a warmer than average month across the Southwest, while odds tilt cooler across the Great Lakes. https://t.co/JI2DUvhln5 pic.twitter.com/UR7jWfPVQ3
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) April 30, 2020
Several changes were made to the precipitation forecast, as drier than average weather is now expected in the Great Lakes and Intermountain West. Drought conditions will likely continue or expand for those areas. Odds now tilt to wetter than normal conditions in the Northeast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Parts of the Plains are forecast to see #drought develop during May, while conditions are forecast to improve for much of the Gulf Coast. https://t.co/9pT87CSQMB pic.twitter.com/svjdr8cQBZ
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) April 30, 2020
The CPC noted that the outlooks are based primarily on dynamical model guidance and current soil moisture conditions.” EL Nino or La Nina are not expected to factor in the monthly outlook since sea surface temperatures are predicted to remain neutral.
Forecast models are showing strong signals for above normal temperatures for the West and Gulf Coast. Soil moisture is running higher than normal in the Plains, which will provide a cooling effect and keep temperatures closer to normal.