Two sprawling storm systems are tracking from the Rockies to the Great Lakes, bringing prolonged periods of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and flooding concerns to much of the country. The multi-day weather pattern began in the Southwest and is gradually shifting east, impacting more than 30 states from the Plains to the East Coast. 

Outlooks & Timing

The first storm system developed over the Four Corners region, spreading rain across parts of Arizona and New Mexico before intensifying as it moved into the Southern Plains. As the system advances, widespread rain is expected across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) for Thursday's storms, with an increased wind and tornado threat in eastern OK. Earlier this morning, a few tornadoes did touch down in Oklahoma producing damage. We are awaiting more information on the strength of these tornadoes.

Friday, a second storm system is expected to reinforce the unsettled pattern. Friday's outlook covers areas from east Texas through Kentucky, with a level 2 (slight) risk from Baton Rouge to Nashville, which means storms are expected to be slightly more widespread, stronger, and could last longer. All modes of severe weather (wind, hail, and tornadoes) will be possible.

Warm and moist air is expected to remain in place as the next trough begins to mature, with storms targeting the Mississippi Valley. By the early afternoon, daytime heating will help increase instability enough to lead to scattered severe storms developing. Those storms are expected to intensify through the late afternoon hours, with some persisting into the evening and overnight. This will likely include a tornado threat, so be sure to review your tornado safety plan and have multiple ways to get severe weather alerts that can wake you up.

Rain & Flooding

Rainfall rates will increase significantly on Friday across the south, with 1-2" per hour possible, possibly more. This means some areas could receive 4-6 inches in a short period of time, which could lead to flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the South into Saturday.

The WPC has issued a level 2 outlook for excessive rainfall (flash flooding) for Friday, with areas from Middle/East Tennessee into northern Alabama and Mississippi mostly likely to see flooding develop. If you live in a flood-prone location, review your flooding plan to seek higher ground if flood waters threaten.

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