A Look at Today’s Election Day Forecasts
It’s November 6th, midterm Election Day across the nation and there will be some areas of unsettled weather conditions. The northern tier of the nation and the East Coast will have some precipitation, while most of the West will be dry. Here are some specifics by region:
A cold front is stretched out across much of the East. This will produce scattered storms from New England to the Southeast. Strong storms are possible, along with some areas of heavy rain. The Northeast will cool down, while it will remain mild in the Southeast. On the back side of the storm, passing rain and snow showers will fall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Weather conditions will be tranquil across most of the West with most areas under high pressure. A stalled front along the mountains will produce snow showers and flurries, especially in Montana where 1″ to 3″ may accumulate.
Does the weather affect elections? A 2007 study posted in the Journal of Politics regarding voter turnout states “political scientists have provided little systematic evidence to substantiate this claim”. The study showed a small amount of voters chose to not vote in a few past presidential elections.
[estimates of the number of potential voters who opted not to vote as a result of precipitation. From the Journal of Politics, August 2007]
The study took a look at partisan bias and concluded “our results clearly indicate that Republican candidates benefit electorally from the turnout-depressing effects of bad weather”, using the close presidential elections of 1960 and 2000 as examples. The study says “we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans.”
In opposition, a recent article published in Bloomberg says “there’s not much evidence that rain on Election Day helps predicts the winner”. Although it did state that “the weather may have clear impact on is the mood of voters” commenting that “rain makes voters less willing to take risks, dampening enthusiasm for third-party candidates. It also darkens their mood.”
Don’t forget to vote! To find your polling place, follow this link.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels