Aurora Could Be Visible in Mid-Latitudes After Two X-Class Flares

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5 Oct 2024 2:30 AM

Is it the holiday season already? Because this is the solar cycle that just keeps giving.

After an impressive X7.1 flare on Tuesday, the sun erupted with the strongest solar flare since 2017 on Thursday morning, registering at X9.0! Tuesday and Thursday's flares produced Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that are expected to produced aurora activity over the next few days. Forecasting the exact timing of CME arrival at Earth remains challenging, so be patient and monitor conditions in real time if you plan to try to see the aurora activity.

The CME arrival/timing looks a bit messy, with a long period of moderate to strong geomagnetic activity expected. These spikes in the solar activity could produce aurora overhead into the northern latitudes of the lower 48, with aurora visible on the horizon as far south as Chicago (light pollution permitting).

The Space Weather Prediction Center issues a G-Scale forecast, which is featured below. This shows activity peaking around midnight (ET) on Saturday (late Fri into Sat), with activity possibly peaking again Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This forecast will change - monitoring real time conditions as a compliment is necessary.

Activity is current expected to peak at the G3 level, which typically brings the aurora visibility down to mid-latitudes.

Cloud cover could be an issue for some areas around the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast, as well as the Pacific Northwest. Monitoring satellite conditions is a must.

Be sure to check back in for updates, and happy aurora hunting!

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