Dryline Driven Storms for Texas and Oklahoma

SW PLAINS - Portions of Texas and Oklahoma are at risk of severe thunderstorms through Wednesday. On Tuesday, a dryline was the primary forcing mechanism to trigger storms. A dryline is similar to a cold front except a dryline separates dry air masses from moist air masses and is often responsible for triggering severe thunderstorms.

Overnight Outlook and Timing

Through Wednesday morning, the SPC has downgraded to a SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas (above).

There is a significant hail threat. In their discussion, they mention that the environment is favorable for very large to giant hail (up to 3-4 inches in diameter) with any supercells that spread east-northeastward. That is why there is a CIG2 risk for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma through tonight.

In addition to this significant hail risk, there is also a risk of tornadoes with these supercells.

Going into Wednesday, we have yet another SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms. This time around, however, likely to be triggered by the cold front pushing through.

Storms may continue through the overnight hours across areas of Texas and Oklahoma. Wednesday, storms form in the later afternoon.

The risk for flooding is fairly minimal in these areas but models do have a few localized heavier downpours through the next couple of days in these areas.