Kevin Schneider

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<p>As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical wave is emerging in the central Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its potential to organize over the next several days. Although the system currently has a 70% chance of development in the short term,&nbsp;environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week as it approaches the Caribbean.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 200937-1760926311858.png"></p><p>The long-range models have been hinting at some potential tropical development of the Caribbean wave this week.&nbsp;Right now, the wave is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization. Below is just <strong>ONE MODEL RUN</strong> of what could happen going forward!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 200946-1760926334620.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_carib-1760926455289.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png"></p><p>The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. This latest tropical wave is part of a broader late-season pattern typical of October, when the main area of development shifts westward toward the Caribbean and Gulf. During this time of year, even a small system can strengthen quickly if the conditions align, making close monitoring essential for the islands and nearby coastal regions. While many tropical waves fade harmlessly over open water, the warmth of the western Atlantic and the seasonal transition can sometimes give these systems a late-season boost.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075337-1760622828329.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 7 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.</p>

Alana Cameron

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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<p>October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"></p><h1>Forecast Timing</h1><p>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through tonight and into Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k-1760911424914.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1><p>As the front moves eastward, a <strong>marginal</strong> risk (level 1 out of 4) remains in place for the mid-south and the Ohio Valley. The primary threat will be damaging winds and a tornado or two. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 154945-1760911226865.png">The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155000-1760911274661.png"></p><h1>Total Accumulation</h1><p>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155006-1760911286991.png">There is a <strong>marginal </strong>excessive rainfall outlook (level 1 out of 4) for Monday across portions of New England.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 160201-1760911325471.png"></p><p>Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.</p>

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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<p>The trough responsible for the storms along the East Coast on Sunday will be followed by another similar system. The threat of strong winds returning will have Halloween decorations shaking again as this system moves into the Midwest.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1979751863043113082" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1979751863043113082"></div><p>The one main difference: this front doesn't look like it has enough moisture to fire up a lot of storms. But there will be rain...</p><p></p><h1>WIND</h1><p>We're going in order of impact, with this system being the wind maker that will have any foliage howling. Gusts could top 40 mph in areas of the Upper Midwest on Monday, with 20-30 mph gusts around the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday. In case you didn't learn your lesson with this trough's predecessor, secure the Halloween decorations. It won't clean out all of the foliage in these areas, but the days of enjoying the leaves are starting to get limited.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne to rnc winds-1760912600575.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Wind alerts, including high wind alerts, have been issued for the High Plains on Monday for winds of 40 mph and gusts upwards of 60 mph.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 162504-1760912757689.png"></p><h1>TEMPS</h1><p>Aside from the wind (and projectile leaves), the refreshing cooldown will get you in the Fall mood if your neighbor's inflatable pumpkin doesn't. Temperatures in some places, like Minneapolis, will go from nearing 60 to struggling to get out of the 40s.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 072622-1760880641583.png"></p><h1>RAIN</h1><p>Who's ready for the lake effect machine? Well, it's starting this week...sorta. Lake-enhanced showers will make an appearance with this system on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it's the same principle. Cold air moving over a relatively warmer body of water and VOILA! It's just not cold <strong><em>enough</em></strong> for snow. We'll get there, especially if the lakes struggle to freeze over again like they did last Winter.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne to rnc-1760912521585.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h3>Wanna see how your Winter is shaping up? <br><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-releases-outlook-for-winter-25-26"><strong>NOAA's Winter Outlook</strong></a></h3>

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out Of Trees

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest.<br><br>As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook.<br><br>The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1><p>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"></p><h1>Precipitation</h1><p> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"></p><h1>Influences</h1><p>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season"><u>a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</u></a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). </p><p>The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png"></p><p>There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png"></p><p>ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during<strong> </strong>La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png"></p>

Patrick Crawford

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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<p>A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.</p><p></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669659768.png"></p><p>There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png"></p><p>The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760669791973.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669880981.png"></p><p>Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!</p>

Jesse Kelley

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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Brittany Lockley

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<p>As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have been lifted for Los Angeles after torrential rain fell over burned areas. <span style="color: rgb(10, 10, 10)">The warnings were issued for areas with burn scars from earlier fires, like the Palisades, Hurst, and Sunset fire zones, due to the threat of mud and debris flows.</span> Heavy rainfall, snow, and gusty winds continue to calm down for the southern half of the Golden State as a strong trough continues to move to the northeast.</p><p>Rainfall reached up to 9 inches in California's Haines Canyon, in southern California. The threat of heavy rainfall and snow moves to the northern half of the state this morning.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-15 03-23-08-1760520223806.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>Rainfall totals appear impressive for an October storm system in California, considering it is early in the season for such heavy precipitation.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 200559-1760493964815.png"></p><h1>Rain &amp; Flooding</h1><p>Flash flooding and debris flows will be possible through early Wednesday despite the rain having already happened. The heaviest of the rain has occurred, with storm totals likely having been upwards of 3 inches, which keeps the burn-scarred areas of southern California from recent wildfires at risk.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 144824-1760474941902.png"></p><h1>Snowfall</h1><p>Once this event is complete by Wednesday afternoon, snowfall totals may have topped a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Here are snowfall totals as of Wednesday AM. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760536071310.png"></p><p><strong>Winter Storm Warnings </strong>(Pink)<strong> </strong>and <strong>Winter Weather Advisories</strong> (Purple) have now been dropped for the Sierra Nevada Range but more winter alerts have been issued for areas like Jackson, WY as this system lifts to the NE. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1760535989343.png"></p><p></p><p>Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.</p>

Tracey Anthony

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

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<p>A low-pressure system that has tracked up the East Coast continues to bring threats of coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. While this system has not developed, and is not expected to develop, any tropical characteristics, it’s behaving much like an early-season Nor’easter, delivering similar impacts minus the cold and snow. Areas along the shores of North Carolina to New England were impacted by this system.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1977894622975430882" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1977894622975430882"></div><p>The system is expected to move away from the coast through Tuesday but New Jersey still had a handful of strong wind reports on Monday. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 14-1760436387824.png"></p><h2><strong>Rainfall</strong></h2><p>Heavy rain was very localized from this system, and will be far and few especially as it moves away from the East Coast. But a few daily rainfall records were still broken on Monday. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 13-1760436496566.png"></p><p>A few scattered rain showers still remain possible.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-13 east-1760408242196.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>Coastal flood alerts have been slowly ending for much of the Atlantic Coast. Sea water flooding during high tides could still approach 2-3 feet of inundation in some areas (warning areas in dark green).</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 12-1760436278168.png"></p><p>The major flood stage is expected to be reached around the southern Chesapeake, mostly during high tides. Prepare for sea water inundation to continue into Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124158-1760380926209.png"></p><p>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.</p>

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

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Another day and more severe storm chances.  It seems like everyday were are talking about severe storms, but this a very active time of the year.  Here is the very latest on today's storm threat.
<h2>Severe Outlook</h2>
<h2><img class="alignnone wp-image-92091 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/7day2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /></h2>
The 2 main areas of focus for severe weather today will be in the High Plains and the Southeast (Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia and western South Carolina).

<img class="alignnone wp-image-92092 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/7day3.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-92093 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/cle.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

The highest risk for tornadoes will likely be across the High Plains.  Especially for North Dakota and Nebraska where there is a 5% tornado risk today.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-92094 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/7day4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

&nbsp;

The strongest storms will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours.  Here is the latest timing for today's storm chances.
<h2>High Plains</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-92095 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/cone.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-92096 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/coral.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />
<h2>Southeast</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-92097 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/earthquake.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-92099 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/east1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on today's severe weather chances.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://twitter.com/MeteorologistPC"><strong>Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</strong></a>

Friday Severe Weather Update

Severe Outlook

High Plains

Southeast

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its f

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

October has been relatively quiet in terms of

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out Of Trees

The trough responsible for the storms along t

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

A ridge of high pressure has been responsible

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have b

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

A low-pressure system that has tracked up the