GULF - Starting early Monday morning, moisture from the Gulf will surge onshore, soaking Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Throughout the day, this moisture will spread into the rest of the southeastern U.S. before a surface low moves onshore by Monday evening.
This surface low will pull in tropical moisture and produce downpours across the South and Southeast, where temperatures will be warm enough to support rain and even a few thunderstorms. On the northern side of the system, ice and snow will become an issue across portions of the Mid-South, which you can read more about here. As mentioned above, rain begins moving inland tonight and into early Monday morning before soaking the South Monday afternoon.
Currently, there are no severe weather outlooks across the Gulf, though general thunderstorm outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center do line the coast.
However, there are excessive rainfall outlooks in place. For Monday, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 of 4) risk for flash flooding across our Gulf Coast states.
With deep Gulf moisture and embedded thunderstorms, heavy rain may oversaturate soils and lead to isolated flash flooding.
For a closer look at the timing in your city, be sure to join us at :10 past the hour if you live east of the Mississippi, and :30 past the hour if you live west of the Mississippi.