WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Aside from the two tropical storms that formed along the Gulf Coast, this year in the Atlantic has been fairly quiet. The lower-than-normal activity has been expected thanks to the major El Niño event that continues to build in the Pacific. While the season was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-holds-steady-with-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">expected to have less activity than normal</a>, it doesn't mean the Atlantic will be devoid of tropical activity. The National Hurricane Center is watching two different waves off the West Coast of Africa this week. The favorite among the model guidance is the tropical wave still over Africa. Forecast models have been in solid agreement about the higher strength of this tropical wave, and its potential to develop, despite somewhat marginal environmental conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786240554412.png">The NHC is giving the wave a medium chance to develop over the next 7 days, but that could change as forecast factors become clearer. Both of the major global models (GFS &amp; ECMWF) give the wave a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The wave will be fighting Saharan dust and near/below average sea surface temperatures, but may be able to find enough energy to get organized.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-54-30-1786197366275.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecast models in the long range take the wave north into the middle of the Atlantic, but with such long-range forecasts, there is little certainty to these solutions. People in the Caribbean and United States should be monitoring the progress of this system closely over the next few days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075458-1786197331248.png">The next storm on the list in the Atlantic this season is Cristobal (Crees-to-bal). The development of tropical waves in western Africa tends to increase greatly from August into September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075520-1786197341125.png">

Kevin Schneider

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

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A large area of high pressure continues to bring the heat across the United States. Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect across the western U.S. Find ways to stay cool and stay out of the sunshine.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-09 073114-1786282284018.png"><h1>HEAT RISKS</h1>In addition to the heat alerts, the Heat Risk is up to major to extreme levels, especially across the southwest. This means that the heat will be dangerous for everyone, even if you're used to the desert heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242337435.png"><h1>Southwest</h1>In the short term, temperatures stay quite hot for the Southwest. However, the ridge will begin to build eastward across the Plains, which will cool this region's temperatures down to near-normal or below-average highs!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242468722.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-09 073331-1786282423412.png"><h1>Plains</h1>The long-lasting heat dome is making its way eastward into the Central and Southern Plains this week! Extreme Heat Warnings are already up for parts of Missouri, along with many heat advisories. Highs will soar into the triple digits, feeling a few degrees hotter with the humidity. Make sure to find adequate ways to stay cool!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-09 073506-1786282514369.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786242666137.png">

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

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Get ready for one of the most spectacular displays of the cosmos visible on earth - a total solar eclipse! Totality will only cover a small portion of the globe, however, while many others will see a partial solar eclipse. A solar eclipse happens when the moon moves between the sun and earth, casting a shadow on the Earth's surface. There's a small "hard shadow" where the total solar eclipse occurs, where the sun is completely obscured by the moon, leaving only the outer ring, or corona, of the sun visible. The larger "soft shadow" covers a larger portion of the globe, but only a section of the sun will be obscured. Even though both are eclipses, the experience in the path of totality is completely different than in the partial zone. Totality ushers in darkness and massive changes, including temperature drops, changes in animal behavior, and more. If you have the chance to see a total solar eclipse, it is highly recommended you take advantage of the opportunity.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 124538-1786128790332.png"><h1>Path of Totality</h1>People in parts of Greenland, Iceland, Spain, and an incredibly small piece of Portugal, will be able to experience totality if skies are clear enough. The eclipse will begin in the arctic circle before dropping south to cruise over the North Atlantic and eventually western Europe. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 124037-1786128740977.png"> Western Iceland, including Reykjavik, will get to experience totality for a about 60 seconds in the late afternoon on Wednesday, August 12th. This will occur around 5:45 - 5:50 GMT from north to south.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-07 13-00-09-1786129629600.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Some lucky folks in Spain will have nearly two minutes of totality (toward the middle of the path), while folks closer to the outside of the path will only get about 20-30 seconds of magic. The sun will be approaching the western horizon, or sunset, as totality occurs, making for a truly incredible sight. Totality begins on the northern coast around 8:26 pm local time (CEST) and will end as it moves south of Mallorca in the Mediterranean around 8:33 pm.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-07 13-00-28-1786129642319.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Partial Solar Eclipse</h1>In the United States, only a partial eclipse will be visible and only for a portion of the country. A partial eclipse will be visible in the early afternoon, peaking around 2:00 pm ET, from portions of Montana to eastern North Carolina. Only a small sliver of the sun will be obscured for many, with about a fifth of the sun obscured in northern New England, mostly in Maine. All of Alaska (expect the far western Aleutians) will experience a partial solar eclipse as well. Southern Alaska will see a quarter of the sun obscured, peaking around 8:15 - 8:30 am Alaskan Daylight Time, while northern Alaska will see about half of the sun covered by the moon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 124624-1786128804207.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 124629-1786131371992.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 103029-1786206678322.png"><h1>Next Total Solar Eclipse in the U.S.</h1>A total solar eclipse will cover portions of the United States in 2044, mostly moving through Canada, but parts of western North Dakota and Montana will get a view. In 2045, a large section of the United States will be able to experience a total solar eclipse. The path of totality runs from Northern California through Salt Lake City and Denver, before moving across the South from Little Rock to Miami, FL. It's never too early to make plans...<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-07 124638-1786131683080.png">

What to Know About the Total Solar Eclipse on August 12th

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As a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the Southwest and Southern Plains, disturbances will continue to ride around the ridge into the Midwest and Northeast, keeping these areas of the country stormy. A stationary front will provide the focus for storms over the next few days, but could be picking on a few places. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 065345-1786193861506.png">While cooler and drier air will move in briefly behind the fronts, warmth and moisture will rebuild quickly to the south, leading to plenty of instability for severe storms. The outlooks shift a bit each day (top of page), depending on where the front is located. Damaging winds and flooding are expected to be the primary hazards. A few isolated tornadoes are possible too!<h1>Sunday - Monday Outlooks</h1>Severe weather chances will increase Sunday and Monday around the Great Lakes, as jet stream energy and instability increase along the fronts. The SPC has issued slight risks (level 2 out of 5) for both of these days (below).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-09 072339-1786281827892.png">Massive hail (greater than 2" in diameter) and hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible with any development on the Northern Plains. However, that appears uncertain whether or not we'll see any storms at all. <h1>Forecast</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-09 07-28-35-1786282149955.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Storms are possible any time of day, but look more active from the afternoons well into the early mornings. As is the case with many summertime thunderstorms, big clusters of storms may form (known as an MCS) which can persist well into the overnight hours. Out forecast model likes chances for these overnight storms the next few days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-09 072935-1786282185244.png">With repeated rounds of storms the next few days, flash flooding will become a growing concern too. Some localized areas can expect 3 to 5 inches or rainfall over the next few days!

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

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After the solar eclipse happens Wednesday afternoon grab some coffee, because one of the best meteor showers of the year peaks late Wednesday night into Thursday morning! The Perseid meteor shower is often considered the best of the year for it's high rate of meteors and warm overnight temperatures, especially compared with the Geminids which peak in December. This year's show could be particularly dazzling since the moon will be new, leaving skies perfectly dark away from light pollution. The meteors are named after the constellation from which the appear to emanate, which is Perseus, located in the east-northeast this time of year. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 092352-1786203103738.png">While clouds are forgotten about most days that don't involve the beach, they become your worst enemy when it comes to viewing the cosmos at night. The cloud cover forecast currently favors clear skies in areas across the Northwest and High Plains, Southern Plains into the Mid-South, and parts of the Southeast. Cloud forecasting is difficult and could change quite a bit - so check back for daily updates.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 093115-1786203136507.png">Do you need to bring binoculars for a meteor shower? No! Try to take in as much of the sky as possible at once, which will let you see as many meteors as possible. Find a dark place away from city lights, give your eyes about 20 minutes to adjust, and wait for the show! Meteors can come in bursts so don't be discouraged if you don't see many initially, or if the rates slow down. Bring some lawn chairs or a blanket, snacks, and some beverages.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 093010-1786203095588.png">

One of the Best Meteor Showers of the Year Peaks Wednesday Night

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A series of frontal systems will keep the Northeast active with storms and heavy rainfall chances into the weekend. As a front approaches the coast on Saturday, scattered severe storms are expected with damaging winds possible. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially in urban areas.<h2>HEAT ALERTS</h2>Warm southerly flow around the Bermuda high in the Western Atlantic is keeping the coast hot and humid on Saturday. Heat alerts have been issued where heat index values will range between 95 - 105° F. Take breaks from the sun in shade or air conditioning and be sure to drink lots of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070515-1786194328560.png"><h2>FORECAST</h2>Friday's storms did produce several areas of damaging winds and flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In the Northeast, wind gusts topped out at 58 mph in Pennsylvania. Saturday, more scattered storms are possible ahead of the cold front, which could lead to gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The best timing for the severe storms will occur during the afternoon and evening hours. The front should clear most of the Northeast on Sunday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/FORECAST-1786219970943.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL</h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070818-1786194510592.png">Rainfall totals don't appear off the charts, but with already saturated grounds, the flooding risk is certainly here.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786156033794.png">For more on this and any flood or severe alerts in your area, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

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Brittany Lockley

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NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to forecast fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than what is typically seen during an average year.&nbsp;Forecasters say the overall pattern across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans still supports a quieter season. The ongoing influence of El Niño is expected to create stronger upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for developing tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085032-1786027844121.png">NOAA continues to predict&nbsp;7 to 13 named storms&nbsp;this season. Of those,&nbsp;2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, while&nbsp;0 to 2&nbsp;could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.&nbsp;<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2085374878392172899" src="https://x.com/NOAA/status/2085374878392172899/photo/2"></div>The agency says there is a&nbsp;75% chance of a below-average season, a&nbsp;20% chance of near-average activity, and only a&nbsp;5% chance of an above-average season.&nbsp;Although the season has been relatively quiet, with only two Gulf storms in the Atlantic basin thus far (Arthur &amp; Bertha), NOAA&nbsp;cautions that the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning. Historically, tropical activity ramps up in August and peaks around mid-September before gradually declining through the fall.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085119-1786027891236.png">NOAA also reminds residents that seasonal forecasts are meant to estimate the total number of storms, not where they will track. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to produce significant damage and life-threatening impacts, regardless of whether the season ends below average.&nbsp;With several months remaining in hurricane season, emergency officials encourage people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to have a hurricane plan in place, review evacuation routes, and keep emergency supplies ready in case a storm threatens their area.&nbsp;

Rob Bradley

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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At WeatherNation, we often use the phrase "Turn Around, Don't Drown." There are many hazards you may encounter above and below floodwaters.

https://youtu.be/mNkZ3urGoW4

In the United States, flooding kills more people annually than tornadoes, hurricanes, and lightning. So always remember to, "Turn Around, Don't Drown."

-Meteorologist Viki Knapp

&nbsp;

Hazards of Floodwaters

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Aside from the two tropical storms that forme

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

A large area of high pressure continues to br

What to Know About the Total Solar Eclipse on August 12th

Get ready for one of the most spectacular dis

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

As a ridge of high pressure continues to domi

One of the Best Meteor Showers of the Year Peaks Wednesday Night

After the solar eclipse happens Wednesday aft

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

A series of frontal systems will keep the Nor

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026