Less Storms - NOAA's Updated Hurricane Season Outlook

news image
Special Stories
9 Aug 2018 10:53 AM
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters are lowering their forecast numbers for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters are calling for 9 to 13 named total storms, with 4 to 7 hurricanes, and between 0 to 2 major hurricanes, which are hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

So far this 2018 hurricane season there have been four named storms, including two hurricanes. An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

One factor incorporated in to the update was the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the fact that an El Nino is much more likely to form and become strong enough to inhibit or suppress storm develop across the Atlantic during the later half of the season.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO, is an climate index that's a measure of the sea surface temperature anomalies across the central tropical Pacific Ocean, west of South America. If the index or anomalies are positive, this is referred to as an "El Nino", with warmer than average sea surface temperatures for this region. If the anomalies are negative, then this is referred to as "La Nina", with cooler than average sea-surface temperatures for this region.

This is important because warmer waters typically lead to more thunderstorm activity across this region of the Pacific, and the fast winds associated with these storms can spread across the atmosphere, in to the tropical Atlantic and lead to a less favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes to form. According to NOAA, there is nearly a 70 percent chance of El Nino during this Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Some additional factors leading to a drop in the forecast numbers for storms include sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean being lower than average, drier air, and increased instability of the atmosphere, will likely lead to lower numbers of storms in the Atlantic.

NOAA forecasters originally called for 10 to 16 name storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

Tune into WeatherNation for the latest on the updated Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook and other top weather stories from across the nation.

For WeatherNation - Meteorologist Marcus Walter.

All Weather News
More
Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

Multiple Flash Flood Emergencies were issued

5 Jul 2025 10:20 PM
Severe Storms in the Midwest Continue To Spoil the Holiday Weekend

Severe Storms in the Midwest Continue To Spoil the Holiday Weekend

NORTHERN PLAINS - A frontal system continues

5 Jul 2025 10:15 PM
Tropical Storm Chantal Forms This Morning

Tropical Storm Chantal Forms This Morning

Tropical Storm Chantal has formed, with winds

5 Jul 2025 4:35 PM
Eastern Pacific Remains Active

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

Following Flossie, the Eastern Pacific remain

5 Jul 2025 4:30 PM
Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

AAA is expecting over 70 million travelers to

4 Jul 2025 10:15 AM
Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

NORTHEAST -A shortwave trough will swing thro

3 Jul 2025 8:05 PM
Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk

Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk

NORTHWEST - Today, portions of Montana are un

3 Jul 2025 12:00 AM