Brittany Lockley

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. There has only been one slight risk day in the last 17 days. Saturday slight risk of severe weather across the central U.S. changes that, with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes returning. A cross-country storm that brought heavy rainfall and snow to California has moved into the central U.S.<h1>TIMING</h1>The latest timing is showing storms impacting the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast throughout Saturday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/FORECAST-1760800006124.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>SET-UP</h1>A strong cold front will drop through the Southern Plains Saturday. Ahead of it, warm temperatures, some that might threaten records, will greet the front. The clash between the two air masses will help drive the thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093129-1760542364613.png">As the front moves eastward on Saturday, a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) has been issued for the mid-south and the Ohio Valley.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/PIC 2-1760783784807.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/PIC 3-1760783779331.jpg">Are there going to be storms? Likely. How strong to potentially severe will they be? That's up in the air. It's still a little too early to tell which fine-scale ingredients will be in play.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093533-1760542706942.png"></h1><h1>THREATS</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could pick up a few inches of rain especially near the Ozarks.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760756381067.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760756405862.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Patrick Crawford

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical wave is emerging in the central Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its potential to organize over the next several days. Although the system currently has a 30 % chance of development in the short term,&nbsp;environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week as it approaches the Caribbean.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 043923-1760697599176.png">The long-range models have been hinting at some potential tropical development of the Caribbean wave in the next week or so.&nbsp;Right now, the wave is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization. Below is just ONE MODEL RUN of what could happen going forward!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/FORECAST-1760789700569.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png">The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. This latest tropical wave is part of a broader late-season pattern typical of October, when the main area of development shifts westward toward the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. During this time of year, even a small system can strengthen quickly if the conditions align, making close monitoring essential for the islands and nearby coastal regions. While many tropical waves fade harmlessly over open water, the warmth of the western Atlantic and the seasonal transition can sometimes give these systems a late-season boost.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075337-1760622828329.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 12 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwestern United States, especially closer to the coast. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to track toward this region over the next two weeks, including a wet system this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760756780342.png">Heavy precipitation will gradually increase Saturday before spreading south and east to end the weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/FORECAST-1760782731477.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>New rain totals along and west of the Cascades could top 2-4 inches in some areas, while new snow in higher elevations could easily surpass 6-12 inches.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760732742821.png">Get the latest forecast for the northwest anytime at :50 past the hour or with the WeatherNation app.

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669659768.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png">The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760669791973.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669880981.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Jesse Kelley

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have been lifted for Los Angeles after torrential rain fell over burned areas. The warnings were issued for areas with burn scars from earlier fires, like the Palisades, Hurst, and Sunset fire zones, due to the threat of mud and debris flows. Heavy rainfall, snow, and gusty winds continue to calm down for the southern half of the Golden State as a strong trough continues to move to the northeast.Rainfall reached up to 9 inches in California's Haines Canyon, in southern California. The threat of heavy rainfall and snow moves to the northern half of the state this morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-15 03-23-08-1760520223806.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals appear impressive for an October storm system in California, considering it is early in the season for such heavy precipitation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 200559-1760493964815.png"><h1>Rain &amp; Flooding</h1>Flash flooding and debris flows will be possible through early Wednesday despite the rain having already happened. The heaviest of the rain has occurred, with storm totals likely having been upwards of 3 inches, which keeps the burn-scarred areas of southern California from recent wildfires at risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 144824-1760474941902.png"><h1>Snowfall</h1>Once this event is complete by Wednesday afternoon, snowfall totals may have topped a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Here are snowfall totals as of Wednesday AM. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760536071310.png">Winter Storm Warnings (Pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (Purple) have now been dropped for the Sierra Nevada Range but more winter alerts have been issued for areas like Jackson, WY as this system lifts to the NE. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1760535989343.png">Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.

Tracey Anthony

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

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Kevin Schneider

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A low-pressure system that has tracked up the East Coast continues to bring threats of coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. While this system has not developed, and is not expected to develop, any tropical characteristics, it’s behaving much like an early-season Nor’easter, delivering similar impacts minus the cold and snow. Areas along the shores of North Carolina to New England were impacted by this system.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1977894622975430882" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1977894622975430882"></div>The system is expected to move away from the coast through Tuesday but New Jersey still had a handful of strong wind reports on Monday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 14-1760436387824.png"><h2>Rainfall</h2>Heavy rain was very localized from this system, and will be far and few especially as it moves away from the East Coast. But a few daily rainfall records were still broken on Monday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 13-1760436496566.png">A few scattered rain showers still remain possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-13 east-1760408242196.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Coastal flood alerts have been slowly ending for much of the Atlantic Coast. Sea water flooding during high tides could still approach 2-3 feet of inundation in some areas (warning areas in dark green).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 12-1760436278168.png">The major flood stage is expected to be reached around the southern Chesapeake, mostly during high tides. Prepare for sea water inundation to continue into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124158-1760380926209.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

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Showers and storms are in the forecast today for the Eastern Great Basin.  We are not looking at a major severe outbreak, but there could definitely be some strong storms firing up this afternoon with the potential for large hail and damaging winds.
<h2>Forecast</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-88791 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/heavyrain1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

A cold front sliding through the western U.S. will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon.  Daytime heating and temperatures cooling very quickly in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  This means that showers and storms will be increasing for this afternoon and isolated storm cells could turn severe.
<h2>Severe Risks</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-88792 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/7day1-2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

The Marginal Risk of severe weather is over parts of Nevada and Wyoming, but is mainly over a big chunk of Utah.    What is a Marginal Risk of severe weather?  Here is the definition from the Storm Prediction Center.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88793 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/heavyrain2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Marginal risks are typically isolated and the main threats are usually wind and hail.

Here is a look at severe risk forecast for today.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88795 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/7day3-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88796 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/7day3-2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88797 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/7day2-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Notice how there isn't even a risk of tornadoes today with any of these storm chances.  Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with a 5% risk.
<h2>Latest Timing</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-88798 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture-8.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88799 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/east1-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88800 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/east2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88801 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/east4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-88802 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/headlines.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Most of today's thunderstorms will be firing up during the peak heating hours this afternoon.  A lot of today's storms will be below severe weather criteria...only a few isolated storms will have the chance to turn severe.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/">Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Parts of Utah, Wyoming and Nevada Today

Forecast

Severe Risks

Latest Timing

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

October has been relatively quiet in terms of

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its f

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwest

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

A ridge of high pressure has been responsible

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have b

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

A low-pressure system that has tracked up the