Kevin Schneider

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In the Atlantic basin, we are keeping a very close eye on the Eastern Gulf. In the Pacific, Elida continues to churn amongst two other areas with potential to develop.<h1>Atlantic</h1>TROPICAL STORM BERTHA has formed in the Gulf/ Atlantic. Tropical Storm Watches are in place from Florida to Louisiana, and storm surge watches are in place as well. Dangerous storm surge will be possible along the coast. Tropical storm-force winds and conditions will be possible in the next 24 hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 160355-1784671455673.png">There are Tropical Storm Alerts in effect along the Florida Panhandle and into the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coastline with the potential of tropical storm conditions as this system strengthens.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 160448-1784671492906.png">The biggest threat to watch for along the coast is storm surge. Peak storm surge could reach 2-4ft for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 035238-1784627572600.png">There is a lot of dry air around, which should keep a pretty firm lid on what becomes of this tropical cyclone. The expectation is that whatever develops will drift westward, potentially making landfall as far west as Texas or Louisiana. A lot will depend on where the circulation fully develops, so there is considerable uncertainty. At this point anyone along the Gulf Coast should be paying attention to this system. Below is the intensity model forecast. The center blue line is what is anticipated by the National Hurricane Center. Most models indicate a strengthening to tropical storm strength but keep the storm below hurricane strength.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 113704-1784655431291.png"><h1>Pacific</h1><h2>ELIDA</h2>Elida had its last advisory issued on Monday morning, but the remnants of this system could bring high surf and waves to the southern California Coast. High Surf Alerts have been issued through tomorrow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 035429-1784627684168.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 035453-1784627703134.png">There are a few other areas we are monitoring in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane Fausto has officially formed, along with another area behind Fausto that has a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 165905-1784674764265.png">Now a hurricane, Fausto is expected to track westward and potentially intensifying into a Category 2. It's still way too soon to tell if it's going to have any effect on the Hawaiian islands.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 165939-1784674783733.png">

Alana Cameron

Tropics: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms In the Atlantic,  Eastern Pacific Active

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Adrian Hernandez

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Another stalled front in the Carolinas is forecast to keep storms in the forecast. While we do have severe weather chances, models are showing high rainfall rates and a flood risk for the area. This setup isn't new, however. With the last stalled front on Monday, we've already picked up over 3.5" in parts of North Carolina!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 042559-1784629627345.png"><h1>Flooding</h1>With the front sticking around for the long haul, rainfall chances will be in the forecast daily. This stretch makes it all the way out to the weekend! We've got a solid chance of knocking out another 7" of rain across North Carolina on top of what we've already seen!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-21 04-24-14-1784629554686.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With a large amount of rain in the forecast, the risk for flash flooding will be present. More than likely, these outlooks will extend into the end of the week!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07213-1784674357641.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe</h1>With this front, there's enough lift in the atmosphere to give us severe chances for the next two days. With most setups where these storms roll off the Appalachians, damaging winds will be the main concern for the Carolinas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-21 04-30-56-1784629949067.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>However, we don't want to rule out a chance to see an isolated spin up tornado, as those remain in the forecast come Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 043353-1784630046779.png">Despite this last week, it's been pretty dry for the Carolinas. Recent updates from the drought monitor show an extreme to even exceptional drought across the Carolinas. Hopefully, all this rain can offset some of those concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 042846-1784629777463.png">Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the full east breakdown at :10 past the hour! Always remember, turn around and don't drown!

Taban Sharifi

Flash Flooding and Severe Weather for the Carolinas This Week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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Another cold front is dropping east and will plow into warm and humid air. That will be the focus for severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. This comes only a few days after storms raged through the area to kick off the weekend.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2078640402845114541" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2078640402845114541?s=20"></div>As the heat continues to build, any storms that enters will tap into that energy. Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk for severe weather (above). All modes of severe storms look to be on the table, including a few tornadoes. Damaging winds, however, are looking like the easiest threat to come by.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 155909-1784671153514.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2079664167997571309" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2079664167997571309"></div>Timing will favor the afternoon and evening, but a few storms could maintain their severity overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07212-1784671260936.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The SPC has also issued a risk for Wednesday for severe thunderstorms. The safest bet will be in the Mid-Atlantic states, but even New England might pick up a severe storm or two Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 155921-1784671167058.png">A growing concern is the amount of rainfall coming down after record amounts in the northeast. With multiple opportunities for storms, some could see too much too fast, leading to a flooding threat as well. Look at where the bull's eye is showing up on the most recent model run.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 155936-1784671180717.png">The Philadelphia area has also now been put under a flood watch in anticipation of this rainfall.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 155954-1784671198872.png">While it's not a daunting as Sunday's model output, they're still point to more than enough to cause problems.

Another Round of Storms Targets the Northeast

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Conditions have been real dry out west. We've been tracking some major fires across the state of Oregon. With multiple fires burning in the same general region, they form complexes. We have two large ones we're tracking now with low containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 045804-1784631572594.png">One of the biggest issues we're going to track with these fires will be the smoke. Unfortunately, upper level winds will send this moderate to even dense smoke across the Pacific Northwest.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fprecast smoke-1784655567297.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This smoke is expected to lower the air quality considerably across the area. As of Tuesday morning, Burns, Baker City and Boise all under that unhealthy AQI (Air Quality Index) category.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 050208-1784631800818.png">Dry conditions are expected to persist. Unfortunately, we have enough moisture to wring out a thunderstorm or two. This could pose an issue as there is a likelihood of lightning reaching the ground and causing more fires. Dry thunderstorm outlooks will be in place throughout Tuesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-21 113920-1784655583165.png">Stay tuned to the forecast here on WeatherNation at :50 past the hour for your full Western U.S. breakdown!

Pacific Northwest Fires Bringing Down the Air Quality

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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The upper-level low train continues to keep the weather pattern active for the Midwest. As this system moved through today, strong storms developed, bringing damaging winds, large hail, and tornado warnings.<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>Overnight, we have a slight risk for strong storms from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. The biggest concern will be damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/enhannfff-1784599474298.png">Some storms could be packing a significant punch. Hen-egg sized hail and hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Some storms will have a chance to see large tracking tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fjfjfjfjfsss-1784599821708.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Overnight, as the frontal boundary moves to the south/east, storms will continue to ride along it. Any storm that develops through the overnight will have the capability to be strong to severe.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fprecccsss-1784599734885.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>More on your Central Regional Forecast can be found :30 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Another Round of Severe Weather for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

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Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, and northern Minnesota have been producing smoke, and upper-level winds in the atmosphere have been carrying that smoke into the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast. Air quality has improved, but another mild push of smoke is moving through the region today ahead of another front. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-19 064723-1784458061933.png">Air quality is still poor enough to lead to air quality alerts today, but there is some hope on the horizon. Another front is dropping through, which should bring some rain, but most importantly, this rain could clear out some of the wildfire smoke. However, there is also the risk that is draws in more wildfire smoke. Our models have the outcome of conditions clearing.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/smoke and cat precip-1784576988880.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Alerts remain in place across the Great Lakes region and Midwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134842-1784576951816.png"><h1>How Smoke from Wildfires Can Impact Breathing</h1><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GIU_Kz5gPzI" start="0"></iframe></div>“We know that air pollution in general can really trigger a number of health issues, including simple things that we think about like asthma or COPD, but they can actually also trigger cardiovascular events. And smoke from wildfires is no exception,” said Samuel Gurevich, MD, pulmonologist at Cleveland Clinic. “They actually put into the air a lot of what we call particulate matter, which are these very, very fine particles of dust and other organic matter that then can easily be breathed in and can irritate the airways or even be absorbed into the bloodstream.”Dr. Gurevich said other groups that could be affected by the wildfire smoke include children with hard to control asthma, women who are pregnant, and people with pre-existing heart conditions.So, what can they do to help stay safe? He recommends checking the air quality for your city before going out for the day. That information can be found online or within many weather apps. If the air quality is bad, it’s best to stay inside.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/42cqyxmedcE" start="0"></iframe></div>“Make sure your windows are closed and your air conditioning is on. HEPA filters do a reasonably good job, as well, if you have access to that. Those are all those things you should be prepared with. And if you do already have a diagnosis of a respiratory illness like asthma, COPD, or emphysema, have a rescue plan in place,” he said.Dr. Gurevich said if you do have to go outside, try to make it as quick as possible. You could also wear an N95 mask. Anyone experiencing shortness of breath or worsening symptoms should seek medical attention right away.&nbsp;

Air Quality Improvements in the Forecast

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Brittany Lockley

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The monsoon has returned to the southwestern United States. This shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2076713264898363668" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2076713264898363668"></div>The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1784415308949.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-18 064529-1784371545620.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1784425522678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Monsoon Moisture Brings Weekend Flood Threat

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NOAA's September Outlook - Warmth and Wetter: The new 30 day outlook has been <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued for September</a> from NOAA's <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Prediction Center</a>. More than half of the country is expected to see warmer than average weather, including the Northeast, the southern tier of the nation, and the West. Temperatures are expected to be near averages from the Mid Atlantic to the Northern Plains.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1030074008543408129

Wetter than normal weather is expected along the East Coast and in the Southwest. Drier than average precipitation is forecast for the Gulf Coast and in the Pacific Northwest.

El Nino is expected to develop later this year, as shown in the <a href="http://bit.ly/2Mrs0ge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">autumn outlook</a> released on Thursday, but it is not a factor at this time. Current atmospheric trends and model guidance were the main influences on the September outlook.

For <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

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