WeatherNation Meteorologists

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NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be remembered as the day the island of Jamaica changed forever. Hurricane Melissa slammed into the western side of the island with 185 mph sustained winds, flattening areas of the island. Agencies have been reporting that insurance payments have been slow over the past year, leaving a shortfall of capital heading into what is the peak season for tourism there.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065457-1793192735289.png">Hurricane Melissa devastated islands in the Caribbean in late October in 2025. Four months later, the National Hurricane Center has completed the post-storm analysis of Melissa, finding that the winds reached 190 mph, tying it with Hurricane Allen for the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin's history.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 070552-1793192770453.png">The folks at the National Hurricane Center concluded that Melissa reached a central pressure of 892 mb at its strongest, which lashed the western side of Jamaica with high winds, incredible storm surge, and prolonged rainfall. All of these factors contributed to 95 known fatalities as of the report, released February 26, 2026.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095044-1772038470377.png">The origins trace back to a tropical wave emerging off of the western coast of Africa on October 13th. By midnight on the 26th, Melissa had rapidly developed into a major hurricane. With weak steering, the forecast track was HIGHLY uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the forecast track was incredibly accurate by the National Hurricane Center (below)<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095418-1772038476153.png">What's going to gain more attention is the upgrade to 190 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn't directly observe the winds specifically:<blockquote>"Based on a blend of satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data"</blockquote>This ties it with Hurricane Allen from 1980, which was the previous strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin.In March, the World Meteorological Organization <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/wmo-retires-the-name-melissa-following-devastating-impacts-last-fall">announced they were</a> retiring the name in the wake of the devastation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065440-1793193323670.png">The storm also produced the strongest wind gust ever recorded: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-melissa-produces-strongest-gust-recorded-in-a-hurricane">Watch Here</a>Official Report from the National Hurricane Center: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf">READ IT HERE</a> Josh Morgerman reliving Melissa: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2009330402310381611?s=20">WATCH IT HERE</a>

Patrick Crawford

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

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Kevin Schneider

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This week, the ocean is coming to low-lying areas near you! King tides are back for the next several months, which will lead to sunny day ocean water flooding for vulnerable areas at times. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115058432051126377" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115058432051126377"></div> The exact highest tide will vary for different locations, but through the end of the next several months, when the moon is nearly full, high and low tides will be elevated. In 2026 into 2027, this will occur during the end of the month, through January.<h1>What Causes King Tides?</h1>The Earth's orbit around the Sun is offset a bit, meaning the distance to the Sun varies throughout the year. The Earth's closest point to the Sun occurs in early January, meaning the gravitational effects of the Sun on the oceans increase through early January. When the moon is full and closer to the Earth (perigee), this adds another pull of gravity and increases the tides further. This will occur toward the end of October, November, December, and January, increasing the range of tides.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 053902-1792843085873.png">In October, the full moon occurs on the 26th while the moon's closest point to Earth happens just a few days later. This will help create some of the highest tides of the year for many areas along the U.S. East Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 054717-1792843101424.png"><h1>East Coast</h1><h2>Florida</h2>Coastal flood alerts are in effect for the Atlantic Coast of Florida, all the way up into Virginia. High tide flooding could leave vulnerable areas under a foot or two of water at times, leading to various impacts, including closed roads.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035544-1793181362334.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115171683250344379" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115171683250344379"></div>Florida's highest tide cycles of the fall season will occur in October and November, with the highest tides of October's cycle happening Tuesday morning. Low-lying areas will have several rounds of flooding this week, so it's best to avoid low-lying areas during high tide times.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 055519-1792844159359.png">Carolinas</h2>Charleston already experienced flooding on Friday from high tides, but the highest tides are yet to come. Major flood stage is expected to be hit several days in a row, primarily during the morning high tide cycle. Expect numerous road closures during these times.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 061146-1793009517265.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 055652-1792844169803.png">Mid-Atlantic &amp; Northeast</h2>Minor coastal flooding is expected in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the October cycle of king tides. Low-lying areas could see flooding inundate areas with about a foot of water. In New England, the highest tides should occur during the November and December cycles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061926-1792844685757.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061930-1792844699823.png"><h1>West Coast</h1><h2>California</h2>California is already experiencing elevated tides due to El Niño and a surge of warm water up the coast, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/incoming-kelvin-wave-to-southern-california-one-piece-of-the-el-nino-puzzle">known as a Marine Kelvin Wave</a>. Several large wave events this fall have damaged numerous homes along the coast as well. As a result, King Tide impacts in California could be more significant this season compared to past years. Alerts have been issued from San Diego up past the Bay Area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 061211-1793009542432.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063244-1792845194824.png">The highest tides of the October cycle will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, though the highest tides of the year are expected in December.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 061233-1793009563305.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061945-1792844713149.png">Oregon &amp; Washington</h2>The highest tides of the year for Washington and Oregon are expected later this year as well, during the December high tide cycle. A full "supermoon" will aid in making these tides quite impactful.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063406-1792845257233.png">

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

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Things are getting active again after a long break from storms in the Midwest. A developing area of low pressure looks like it might have all of the ingredients to spin up a few tornadoes, some of which could even be strong later this afternoon.<h1>SETUP</h1>As this area of low pressure comes together, storms will ignite in the heat of the day. While it won't be Spring- or Summer-like energy to tap into, it looks like it will be just enough as temperatures make a run at record highs in Wisconsin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041715-1793183302202.png">The biggest concerning ingredient is the amount of wind shear present, with winds at the surface out of the south or even southeast, turning to the southwest with height.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041748-1793182843267.png">Storms are expected to be organized shortly after firing in the afternoon. Because of the high amounts of shear, all modes of severe weather will be on the table. That includes the potential for an EF-2+ tornado. Have ways to get alerts as we go through our Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 063732-1793191060076.jpg"><h1>Timing</h1>Because we're expecting storms to fire near the surface low, they might go up and become severe in a hurry. Models have generally favored the 1-2 PM timeframe, lasting into the dinnertime hour.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-28 04-27-08-1793183252687.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

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Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, the candy receptacle is made or purchased, and physical conditioning is in peak form! It's the week of Halloween which has all of the spooky lovers in a good mood. The only thing that might get in the way is Mother Nature.<h1>TREATS</h1>We'll start with the easy ones since forecasting multiple days in advance can be a little frightening to meteorologists. But signals can be a little clearer about who has it going well, weather-wise. Focusing on Fri-Sun, it's hard to complain about Denver's setup. A building ridge should keep things eerily quiet on the weather front this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041019-1793182235443.png">Roughly, a line from the Front Range into the High Plains should be good to go if the timing/placement of this ridge is nailed down. That means we just have to prepare for the festivities, with some help from the Red Cross<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080023-1793024061010.png">TRICKS</h1>This is where things get...tricky. Right now, the two different areas that are of some concern are the Southern Plains and the West. Another strong trough will pour onshore late in the week, keeping things out west pretty active. Ahead of that trough, plenty of moisture will get pulled north out of the Gulf, which could help fuel stronger storms, depending on how things come together. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-28 07-16-00-1793193391574.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Along and downstream of that feature rippling through the Midwest and eventually the Mid-Atlantic might want to watch the timing on things, just to be sure an umbrella doesn't need to become a part of the costume too. It's too soon to know if it'll be a washout that affects plans all day or splash-n-dash storms that pick on a particular timeframe.<h1>FALL BACK</h1>Also, remember to set the clocks back an hour going into Sunday. Otherwise, you'll be waking up an hour early when you could have been sleeping off the candy coma instead. Might be a good weekend to replace the batteries in the smoke detectors and weather radios, too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080329-1793024897195.png">Or maybe take the day to ease into a new way of life, with sunsets closer to 5:00. Although latitude has something to do with it, location within your timezone has a lot to say too.

Rob Bradley

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

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After becoming a hurricane last Friday, Vance has weakened to a tropical storm. It's moved far enough away from the Mexican coast to take most of the winds, but some rain continues to graze some parts of the coastline. Its slow movement will mean long-lasting coastal wave action and erosion potential. The good news is, it should weaken as it enters an unfavorable environment early this week. A landfall in Mexico late this week is possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035927-1793181579785.png">Tropical Storm Olana formed in the Central Pacific Ocean this week but has since become post-tropical. This storm is west of the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaii can see multiple inches of rain from the moisture from Olana through Saturday. Here's the latest forecast from our Global American model.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035952-1793181606298.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-27 192512-1793150722562.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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Heading towards the Halloween weekend, the southwest is expecting another push of moisture as a strengthening low moves into the region.The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already issued an outlook for Friday. Cities like Flagstaff, AZ, and Phoenix, AZ are under a Slight risk for flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041147-1793182334263.png">An isolated, Marginal, threat for flooding is in effect across Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona for Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041154-1793182346707.png">This could mean a soggy and cold Halloween for Trick or Treaters on Saturday. We are still several days away, but some of the longer-range forecast models are bringing in widespread precipitation for Halloween.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-28 04-14-01-1793182485434.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There looks to also be some snowfall accumulation for the higher elevations. Specifically, the Rocky Mountains in Colorado look to get some fresh snowfall.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-27 161043-1793139076812.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Brittany Lockley

Southwest Gets More Active By Halloween Weekend

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The cooler weather is finding places to go finally! It's that time of year to look ahead to any chance of flakes we get! This one might get more hopes up of turning Mount Rushmore into Mount Slushmore.A cold front has dropped temperatures from record territory into an area where we could get back to freezing. We won't stay below freezing all day, which starts to complicate matters. Moisture has been streaming in behind this front, pouring out of the Four Corners region. As the core of this upper-level low moves in and drops temperatures that much more, we could change some rain over to snow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 185415-1792976060412.png">However, there are a few issues with what some models are projecting (2+" of snow).<ol><li>Temperatures won't get all the way or well below freezing</li><li>Snowing during daylight hours is tough to accumulate. Even though the sun won't be "shining" it adds energy to the atmosphere making it harder for snow to stick while it's up.</li><li>Rain and snow falling together makes it harder for the snow to stick. Falling raindrops will either melt the snow itself, or leave puddling behind which melts falling snowflakes.</li></ol>Just because temperatures are in the vicinity of freezing, not all snowy setups are created equal. If this were a month or two later with a lower sun angle and slightly cooler temperatures, we could be cooking with gas! But alas, rain will mix with snow throughout the day, trying to accumulate on grassy, elevated surfaces. We might get lucky and pick up an inch in a spot or two, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Roads by Monday night could see a few slick spots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 123650-1793039815143.png">

Mount Slushmore? Taking a look at Dakota Snow Chances

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NOAA's September Outlook - Warmth and Wetter: The new 30 day outlook has been <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued for September</a> from NOAA's <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Prediction Center</a>. More than half of the country is expected to see warmer than average weather, including the Northeast, the southern tier of the nation, and the West. Temperatures are expected to be near averages from the Mid Atlantic to the Northern Plains.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1030074008543408129

Wetter than normal weather is expected along the East Coast and in the Southwest. Drier than average precipitation is forecast for the Gulf Coast and in the Pacific Northwest.

El Nino is expected to develop later this year, as shown in the <a href="http://bit.ly/2Mrs0ge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">autumn outlook</a> released on Thursday, but it is not a factor at this time. Current atmospheric trends and model guidance were the main influences on the September outlook.

For <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

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