We've had a few weeks of severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma and a few days of it in Montana and Wyoming. The Midwest has been largely pretty quiet, aside from a few instances - especially Iowa. Take a look that the number of severe warnings (thunderstorm or tornado) issued since May 1st this year.

This week might be a little different, as a slow-moving boundary is going to linger around the area.

SET-UP

So what's changed? Temperatures will start to climb, which will give any storm that develops plenty to work with. We also have a trough in the northwest kicking out disturbances overhead, providing a spark to light the fuse.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Overnight thunderstorms that develop tonight could survive into Monday morning. Those could very well be strong to even severe, but the Monday afternoon batch is where the concerns are. Storms are expected to fire in the afternoon on Monday, anywhere between 3-5 PM.

Once these storms develop in the afternoon, all modes of severe weather will come to the table. The biggest concern, right now, looks to be massive hail (bigger than eggs) and a few tornadoes.

Timing:

ANOTHER TRAFFIC JAM

I mean, can we get something that moves for once?? It feels like every system we've had recently has its grip on us for a few days, not ones that are in and out of here. That's what happens this time of year. As the jet stream retreats north, there isn't nearly as much wind in the sails of these systems.

That means the severe chances are here to stay for much of this week - but kinda like Monday's storms, these all depend on the atmosphere in place.