Kevin Schneider

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The West Coast is hogging the active weather in the early part of the week, but it won't last forever. A wave moving onshore in the coming days will turn into another chance for severe storms later this week. But there could be one big thing missing...<h1>SETUP</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 103300-1771263199965.png">The disturbance in question will ripple through the Rocky Mountains, emerging sometime Thursday. That's not the issue-the chunk of energy is more than enough to cause trouble. Let's look at the other ingredients<h1>MOISTURE &amp; INSTABILITY</h1>As the system presses in from the west, a front will drive through some dew points well into the 50's and some 60's. That should be plenty of moisture to work with. That will provide ample unstable air to power severe chances. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 103446-1771263317488.png">So if it's all systems go, why are some models struggling to pop storms? Check out the latest run of our in-house model, which is hesitant to develop storms. <hr><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/2026-02-16 10-54-27-1771264500530.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So what gives? This particular model limits the unstable air by the afternoon and pushes through the front early. If that happens, the severe threat would likely be limited. However, enough other models slow down the front, and develop more unstable air by Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is already monitoring an area around Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Lexington. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 111825-1771265931329.png">

California Storm Sparks Severe Chances This Week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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After a warm and dry January, the pattern out west has finally flipped. Feet of snow are expected in the Sierra, while inches of rain will fall in lower elevations. A line of severe storms is even possible by Monday morning in Los Angeles, with damaging winds and a tornado or two possible.<h1>Flooding &amp; Severe Storms</h1>As the front moves onshore on Monday, jet stream energy around the trough will be focused across Southern California. While there won't be a high amount of CAPE (convective available potential energy), wind shear will be on the high end, allowing storms to rotate while bringing strong gusts to the surface. This means a few severe storms, including tornadoes, are possible.The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for the wind and tornado potential on Monday from north of Paso Robles through Los Angeles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web1-1771241888958.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Web 9-1771245407593.png">Flash flooding is looking possible through Tuesday across portions of Southern California, including Los Angeles. The outlooks taper off by Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/2026-02-16 06-38-34-1771241950039.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Timing</h1>As the upper low slowly slides east, the precipitation will expand down to Los Angeles and San Diego along the front on Monday. Rain and snow look likely off and on into Thursday as another strong trough arrives, especially on Tuesday from the Bay Area up to the Donner Pass, where another corridor on intense rain and snow looks to move in.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/2026-02-16 06-39-31-1771242000604.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Winter weather alerts have been issued for much of California through Wednesday.<ul><li>2000-2500 feet: up to one foot</li><li>2500-3500 feet: one to two feet</li><li>3500 feet and above: four to eight feet</li><li>wind gusts up to 45 mph</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web1-1771242035715.png"><h1>Heavy Snow</h1>Travel could be impossible in some spots with the high snowfall rates and winds. Snowfall totals could surpass 4-5 feet in some areas, like Mammoth Mountain. Resorts around Lake Tahoe could also see 4-5 feet, including I-80 and the Donner Pass. The heavy snowfall rates will make mountain travel impossible at times.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web1-1771242126814.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web0-1771242104610.png">Even the mountains in Southern California will see heavy snowfall developing Monday afternoon and evening. Travel will be very difficult at times through early Thursday.

Monster Storm System Will Wallop California

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Fire outlooks have been issued across the front range and the plains through Tuesday afternoon. For today, that fire threat is elevated. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 084820-1771256910953.png">By Tuesday, the fire threat is more significant. The threat reaches extreme criteria. This is rarer to see and means the conditions are highly favorable for fires to start and spread rapidly.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 084839-1771256923860.png">Widespread Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued for the region, and that will expand further into Tuesday, some even lingering through Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 084851-1771256935652.png">All ingredients to spread a brush fire quickly will be present.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web-1771245867180.png">We are talking record-breaking heat potential with the warm daytime highs in the area. Warm weather will accompany a howling west wind into Tuesday, with some gusts surpassing 60 mph. That will help dry out an already dry atmosphere, pushing relative humidity percentages into the single digits by the afternoon. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-16 084902-1771256946587.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Web3-1771246047373.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Web2-1771246065921.png">Catch all your latest updates by tuning into WeatherNation or download the WeatherNationTV app for the latest at your fingertips.

Fire Danger Upgraded to Extreme Threat in the Central Plains

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More record high temperatures were broken across the northern U.S. Temperatures soared into the 60s for some!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2022053101604417635" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2022053101604417635"></div>It has been a tale of two halves of the country so far this winter. In the West, temperatures have been extremely warm, while the East feels the repetitive shots of cold air, fresh from the Canadian Arctic. Now, as our pattern begins to shift, many people will feel the shift from bitterly cold temperatures to a more spring-like feel.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-15 163120-1771198291433.png">High pressure has ridged and is in place. This will begin to shove the arctic air back to the north and allow a significant warm-up from the Gulf to the Canadian border. Cities such as Sioux Falls, Minneapolis, and Chicago, which felt temperatures well below 0° for a good chunk of January, will suddenly feel temperatures that are more typical of April.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web1-1771241543632.png">Down south, temperatures are expected to stay well above average heading into the next work week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web3-1771241575354.png">The southern Plains will also be feeling the anomalous warmth, helping to increase the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/active-weather-weekend-ahead">severe weather threat</a> there over the next couple of days. Confidence is very high in spring-like warmth sticking around as we head deeper into February. The chance for thunderstorms in a more spring-like pattern will continue along with it!

Weirdly Warm February on the Plains

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ROCKIES - A round of snow and rain is leaving the Four Corners, but not to worry, our drought-stricken friends, more is on the way! Winter Alerts have started to expand across the four corners.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/we1-1771245107533.png">The next series of strong troughs will impact California this week, sending additional rain and snow into the Four Corners starting Monday evening. On and off rain and snow showers are expected to continue through much of the week, dropping feet of snow for some areas in the Rockies.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/02-15_rsw_fourc orners 18z-1771210192548.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Snowfall totals could reach 1 to 3 feet in the higher elevations through Thursday morning. The system's track from the Southwest will favor upslope snow in SW Utah and Colorado, increasing totals there, such as Telluride.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/we2-1771245119925.png">Most ski resorts can expect at least 9-12" through Thursday morning, with some seeing up to two feet!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/we3b1-1771245155434.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Tracey Anthony

Rounds of Snow Return to the Rockies

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Storms flew through Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this weekend. Leaving behind strong damaging winds and tornadoes. Two reports have been confirmed out of Mississippi from Sunday, both rating EF-1.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-15 160500-1771196706661.png">Strong and severe storms have developed across the south and will continue through tonight. The threat continues across portions of Florida and Georgia. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-15 160628-1771196792439.png">Be sure to join us on WeatherNation as we track this system's development!

Severe Storms Target the South Sunday

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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NORTHEAST - As this next clipper system continues through, we can see snow and some lake-effect snow. A high-pressure system will move in, and things will taper off on Thursday night.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/02-11_rne-1770838643023.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>When all is said and done, the heaviest snow ends up in upstate New York and most of the New England area. With a few of these lake effect bands cranking well into late week, we can see some totals top out at 6"!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-11 123841-1770838732760.png">But what about those temps after the fact? Well, judging by the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 6-10 day outlook, we're likely to continue with these above-average temperatures even after Valentine's Day weekend. It'll also do a good job thawing out some of that snow left behind by this week's clipper!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/web5-1770808056886.png">Make sure to stay locked in on WeatherNation! We'll cover this system for you all day, as well as break it down in depth in your east regional every :10 past the hour!

Lingering Snow in the Northeast

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The next tropical system has formed in the West Pacific Ocean Saturday. Soon-to-be tropical storm Narda continues to take shape just southwest of Mexico's coastline.

As of early Saturday, the system was called Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E. Potential Tropical Cyclone is a term now given to tropical disturbances before they full form, but are expected to impact land as a tropical storm or hurricane in the days ahead. <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#p">This terminology</a> was a new change by the National Hurricane Center in the 2017 hurricane season.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-113394" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/09/ptc16e-stats.jpg" alt="" width="1883" height="1068" />

&nbsp;

The forecast is for PTC 16-E to strengthen, eventually into a tropical storm through the day Saturday. Once the system strengthens enough (winds &gt;39 mph), it will be named Tropical Storm Narda. Narda will move to the north-northwest, skirting the Mexican coastline, and eventually moving toward Baja California, maintaining its strength as a tropical storm.

&nbsp;

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-113395" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/09/cone-1.jpg" alt="" width="1873" height="1046" />

There are tropical storm warnings for a stretch of the southwest Mexican coastline in effect.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-113399" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/09/alerts-7.jpg" alt="" width="1852" height="1000" />

The main impacts will be wind and rainfall for parts of the southwestern Mexican coast. Winds of tropical storm strength will impact the coast through Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will range from 3-7 inches with isolated higher amounts to 15 from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-113400" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/09/rain-narda.jpg" alt="" width="1878" height="1029" />

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This system is the 14th named storm in the West Pacific for the 2019 season.

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The southwest U.S. may need to monitor where the remnant moisture of soon-to-be Narda goes. The extra moisture may eventually lead to an increase in rain or thunderstorm over the desert southwest next week.

We'll monitor this system, and any other tropical systems that form in the Pacific or Atlantic basin throughout hurricane season.

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Soon to Be 'Narda' Forms in the Pacific

California Storm Sparks Severe Chances This Week

The West Coast is hogging the active weather

Monster Storm System Will Wallop California

After a warm and dry January, the pattern out

Fire Danger Upgraded to Extreme Threat in the Central Plains

Fire outlooks have been issued across the fro

Weirdly Warm February on the Plains

More record high temperatures were broken acr

Rounds of Snow Return to the Rockies

ROCKIES - A round of snow and rain is leaving

Severe Storms Target the South Sunday

Storms flew through Texas, Louisiana, and Mis

Lingering Snow in the Northeast

NORTHEAST - As this next clipper system cont