Adrian Hernandez

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For the first time in a long time, we've got an area of tropical development to watch in the Atlantic basin. Specifically, out in the Gulf. These always catch our eye, as any system that forms in the Gulf has a high chance of making impact to land.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 065824-1791205117268.png">With regards to timing, the National Hurricane Center forecasts this tropical system forming later this workweek. Chances for development into the next few days are low. This system will also have to fight through a TON of shear in the Gulf, limiting it's development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 065859-1791205213571.png">The GFS American model, has this system forming around Thursday. You can tell by the tightening of the isobars closer to the Yucatan Peninsula. The EURO European model also shows some formation. However, the GFS is a little more generous on intensity at this point in time.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-05 07-00-56-1791205367308.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 070256-1791205550832.png">With regards to land impacts, the exact track of this potential system and it's intensity, it's far to early to tell. However, regardless of these details, we can expect heavy rain along some of these Gulf Coast states headed into the weekend!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 070619-1791205656134.png">Stay tuned to the forecast here on WeatherNation. We'll bring you the details you need, and cut out all the hype.

Eyes on the Gulf for Potential Tropical Development

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Kevin Schneider

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Deep tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf is combining with an approaching front, setting the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Heavy rainfall that leads to flash flooding will be possible over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 063233-1791203605311.jpg">Sunday’s greatest flooding concern will focus along portions of the central Gulf Coast, including areas from Alabama east toward the Florida Panhandle.&nbsp;A tropical wave moving through the Gulf is transporting an unusually moisture-rich air mass toward the coast. Atmospheric moisture levels are expected to reach near-record or record territory for early October in some locations.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1791058490540.png"><h1>Timing</h1>After all the heavy rain throughout the Southeast on Saturday and more heavy rain will continue as a frontal boundary lingers. As this front meets moisture expect rain to follow along the front. As this front moves south, heavy rain will be in MS, AL and GA. through tonight and on Monday. By Tuesday the heaviest rainfall will be in Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-05 06-35-12-1791203747584.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Some localized totals of 5-6 inches of rain will be possible (above). The long-term forecast keeps the Gulf Coast very soggy into the middle of October. At least the temperatures are cooling off behind these fronts heading into the month of October.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 070128-1791032535237.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation TV for additional details.

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

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An area of high pressure will remain locked out west, and this means we see the potential for record highs this week! Multiple records will be challenged as this ridge of high pressure brings the heat! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 061246-1791202375745.jpg">Heat alerts remain in place over the next few days as temperatures will run 10-20 degrees above average for some!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 061313-1791202401508.jpg">Check out temperatures in Los Angeles! The average high is normally 75°, but temperatures will flirt with the century mark even on Monday! Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s for Las Vegas and Phoenix. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 061356-1791202444276.jpg">The NW will also be threatening record high temperatures. Spokane and Missoula normally see temps in the 60s this time of year but will be in the upper 70s to around 80.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/reord high temps 2 -1791155263258.png">

Record Heat Returns to the West

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A noticeable change in the weather is on the way for millions across the Great Lakes and Northeast as some of the coldest air since spring moves into the region.&nbsp;After an unusually warm start to October, a push of Canadian air will send temperatures tumbling over the next several days. The transition could eventually bring the season’s first widespread frost and freeze to portions of the northern United States.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073235-1791034366761.png">Check out how cold the temperatures will be for the Northeast early next week. This cold air could kill temperature sensitive vegetation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 063050-1791203461967.jpg">The cooldown marks a dramatic change following the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather across the eastern United States.&nbsp;October is typically when the first freeze becomes increasingly common across the Midwest and Northeast, although the exact timing varies considerably depending on elevation and location.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073713-1791034643040.png">For many across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the upcoming cold snap could provide the clearest sign yet that the warm days of early fall are beginning to fade.&nbsp;Stay Tuned for more details in the Eastern Regional forecast on WeatherNation TV :10 past the hour.

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1>The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, with no signs of slowing down. Nolo is now Typhon Nolo. Hurricane Rachel is still churning, and a new area of interest is likely to develop this week. <h2>Rachel</h2>Rachel continues to impact the western Mexico coastline non-directly, it will continue its trek west through the week. At times, this storm will run into some wind shear and weaken somewhat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 3-1791203971111.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1791203847446.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 4-1791204115294.png"><h1>El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 082933-1791124216732.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tracey Anthony

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"><h2>TIMING</h2>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"> Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Patrick Crawford

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png">The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.

Jackie Brown

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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Storms are in the forecast across the SW Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding is a risk for much of New Mexico and Arizona with heavy rain a possibility for these areas.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97274 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/1-13.jpg" alt="Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW" width="1920" height="1080" />

Tropical moisture is funneling into the region around a circulation of high pressure to the east. This will feed the storm chances Wednesday and Thursday before the high moves East. A cold front will swing in from the NW and combine with the remaining tropical moisture, and now Gulf Moisture, bringing a heavy rain threat to Texas. Areas like Houston will see a threat for heavy rain and flooding once again Friday and into the weekend.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97275 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/2-11.jpg" alt="Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW" width="1920" height="1080" /> <img class="alignnone wp-image-97276 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/3-9.jpg" alt="Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW" width="1920" height="1080" />

Rain totals could reach as high as 4"+ for the Gulf Coast.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97277 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/4-4.jpg" alt="Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW" width="1920" height="1080" /> <img class="alignnone wp-image-97278 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/5-2.jpg" alt="Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW" width="1920" height="1080" />

For Weather Nation: Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/emily-roehler/">Emily Roehler</a>

Tropical Moisture Feeds Rain Chances for SW

Eyes on the Gulf for Potential Tropical Development

For the first time in a long time, we've got

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

Deep tropical moisture streaming north from t

Record Heat Returns to the West

An area of high pressure will remain locked o

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

A noticeable change in the weather is on the

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of