I know I know we're confusing a lot of people when we do this a few times every year. It's just a cheat code for our statistics. Instead of comparing different dates and calling them the same every year - we bust the seasons apart by the calendar, not the exact path around the sun.

Now, every "meteorological" season is the same. Each and every year, although the equinox will slide around depending on the year. But it got us thinking...

How is the Fall Looking

The Climate Prediction Center issues outlooks that span from 6-10 days to MONTHS in advance. Their outlook for the months of September - November was tweaked towards the end of August, with a large majority of the lower 48 likely warmer than average. Despite the past few weeks making us forget about how toasty it's been, this has been more of the case for much of the Summer. Some areas like Salt Lake City and Milwaukee have seen one of their warmest Summers on record.

While there is a ton of red on the map, it's also a good reminder they don't issue outlooks based on degrees above or below, but rather the confidence in the outcome. Very red means very confident, but many equate confidence to degrees above. The same argument could be made for rainfall.

Is this a good first guess to what the weather will be like on Halloween? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Outlooks like this are similar to the climate vs weather idea: long-term outlooks are more the personality whereas the daily forecast is the mood. Be sure to keep up with the latest daily forecast as we iron out the details where you live, all Fall long.