All Weather News

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast – The Details

22 May 2014, 11:18 am

“In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.”

The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, and we now have the official NOAA forecasts for tropical systems, along with some new tools they’ll be working with. We’ll try to summarize the important details in this post – if you have more time and want to read the full release you can find that here. We’ll start with the forecast hurricane counts:

 

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  Last year there were only two hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  There were 15 tropical systems, with one being an unnamed “sub-tropical storm.”  Hurricane Humberto and then Hurricane Ingrid were the only hurricanes of the year.  There were *no* major hurricanes, either. This year looks to be a bit more robust, largely because averages tell us so.  The average hurricane count, per year, is six – so a forecast of 3-6 would still fall in the below-average to average range. So what else is there to know?  Here are some bullet points:

  • *El Nino will be a factor this year – providing more wind shear, which erodes hurricanes and causes lower hurricane counts

 

  • *The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season

 

  • *A new storm surge threat map is being unveiled this season that will help us give you better details flooding impacts from hurricanes

 

 

 

  • *NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season, and the Central Pacific basin is also expected to have a near-normal or above-normal season.

 

Stay tuned through summer & fall! WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

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