Tracey Anthony

Tracey2jpeg-1737574224773.jpeg

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 16 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely below average (93%). The next week or two will likely be another period of higher activity, which could push the season to above-average numbers.<h2>Tropical Storm Octave</h2>Octave formed last Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific. The latest update has shown Octave to have weakened from a Category 1 hurricane to a Tropical Storm early Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 205520-1759805740447.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 205529-1759805750849.png"><h2>Hurricane Priscilla</h2>Right behind Octave, we have Hurricane Priscilla. With winds sustained at 85 mph and moving north-northwest at 5 mph. Priscilla could bring tropical storm conditions to the SW coast of Mexico. Popular tourist spots Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas is under tropical storm watches, and this storm will continue to run parallel with Baja California, expecting some impacts later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 205449-1759805757545.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 155845-1759787931796.png">The forecast cone of uncertainty has Priscilla moving parallel to the Baja over the next week. Beyond this week the tropical moisture that is associated with Priscilla will likely be impacting the forecast for the desert southwest by this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 205513-1759805770509.png"><h2>Tropical Wave</h2>There is a high chance of tropical formation with a wave behind Priscilla, south of southern Mexico, and it is likely to become a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 115857-1759773541836.png">If this wave gets a name, the next on the list after Priscilla is Raymond.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 163649-1759617419832.png">Reminder that we're getting over the final secondary peak of the Pacific hurricane season. It's important to continue to stay updated all the way throughout!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 154651-1759182418223.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Alana Cameron

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

Screenshot20251006195403png-1759802048849.png

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa will have a better chance to develop this week as it moves across the MDR (main development region) in the Atlantic. It's a bit late in the season for tropical waves to develop from Africa, but models indicate that this system could become organized early next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 201136-1759803137777.png">As the wave from Africa merges with another trough in the MDR (main development region), it is more likely to organize. This could bring tropical cyclone impacts to the Caribbean toward the end of the week if these trends hold. The GFS model has been keeping this system just east of the Caribbean islands and steered around a Bermuda High.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06 nat-1759803192323.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is an additional area the NHC is watching, a 10%, low chance for tropical formation in the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Currently, the broad trough of low pressure is causing disorganized showers and storms in the Yucatan Peninsula and will move into the Bay of Campeche later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 201324-1759803214964.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 053846-1759664340127.png">

Atlantic: Watching Two Tropical Waves

Screenshot20251006201037png-1759803139699.png

Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

AlanaCameronjpeg-1679518648021.jpeg

<h1>TEMPERATURES</h1>A cold front sweeping through the Plains has brought a noticeable temperature drop behind it. Widespread Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have now continued into Tuesday morning. Daytime highs are dropping 20+ degrees from where they were Sunday for cities where the cold front has crossed.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 160142-1759788767892.png"><h1>RAIN / STORMS</h1>An upper-level trough is also contributing to this storm setup, supporting a surface cold front expected to move east and southeast through Wednesday. With dew points in the 60s, there’s plenty of moisture to fuel thunderstorms, but limited instability should keep most storms below severe thresholds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06 front moisture-1759802816202.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The frontal system will continue tapping into Gulf moisture as it moves through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The available moisture will spark a flash flooding threat, as several cities get hit for 2 days in rain as this system slows down.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06_rne bams3k-1759802883898.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks through Tuesday across these regions. They have now been upgraded to slight (level 2 out of 4), but rain rates may get as heavy as 1-2" per hour.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06_erops-1759802935782.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With high rain rates, rainfall totals between 2-4" are likely, with localized spots on our in-house model that may reach 6", especially in Kentucky and along the Ohio River. Models are now painting in rainfall totals across western New York.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 200909-1759802957291.png">We’ll keep tracking this system as it shifts east through midweek. The good news is cooler, drier air settles in behind it, bringing a welcome taste of fall once the storms clear out.

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

Screenshot20251006200909png-1759803005838.png

Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

KarissaKlosjpeg-1679518530192.jpeg

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND has ruled a tornado near Enderlin, ND caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This ends a 12 year period without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm cause three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade their survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND to learn more about the decision to upgrade this tornado rating and the factors that went into the decision.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20,2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S. spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive wind storms. Several typically occur each year, through they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as a intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to breaking their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

EnderlinNDEF5png-1759768014083.png

Moisture from the Gulf is forecast to ride around a ridge of high pressure into New Mexico and the Front Range.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 195705-1759802759793.png">NEW MEXICO - On Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of New Mexico, especially in the Gila National Forest. It's a low-end risk due to the more isolated nature of these storms, some of which could bring in some hail.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 195454-1759802342125.png">The timing of these storms looks to fire up during the afternoon hours, but rain will be happening across eastern portions of the state in the morning. As we head into Wednesday, more storms pop up in the peak of afternoon heating as well.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/rswe bamks-1759802386984.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Excessive Rainfall Outlooks have been issued from Tuesday through Thursday in New Mexico for isolated flooding. Some of these areas have had wildfires in past seasons leave burn scars, and without significant regrowth, the risk for mudslides, debris flows, and flash flooding is heightened each time it rains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 195518-1759802443164.png">Rainfall totals in eastern New Mexico show up to upwards of 2-3", which is a significant amount of rain for this region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 195509-1759802532138.png"><h2>Looking Ahead - Priscilla's Moisture</h2>As we head into the end of the work week, some moisture associated with Hurricane Priscilla may get caught up in the subtropical jet and bring moisture back to the southwestern U.S.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sw moisture-1759802481081.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Timing out these rain chances will depend on what happens with Priscilla's potential landfall and interaction with Mexico and the Baja of California's topography. For now, rain chances arrive into the southwest starting on Thursday and really spreading into the Four Corners by Friday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06 rsw longer range-1759802658138.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation, for a more immediate detail of your southwest regional, be sure to tune in :50!

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

Screenshot20251006195711png-1759802688782.png

WeatherNation Meteorologists

headshotspng-1676305264677.png

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

Screenshot20250929203437png-1759199681187.png

Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

RobBradleyjpeg-1679518597323.jpeg

ROCKIES - A strong, upper-level low-pressure system is moving through the western United States, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, snow, and wind. Much cooler temperatures are moving in as well, particularly behind a trailing frontal system, which will help produce heavy mountain snow.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/jfkkd-1759692403079.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Cold air behind the front has started changing rain to snow from Montana into Wyoming with more heavy snow for mountain areas into Sunday night.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 201649-1759630755021.png">Winter weather alerts have been issued for some heavy snow that will be expected in the mountains, mostly above 5,500 feet.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 063418-1759667665368.png">More details on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Jackie Brown

Fall turns to Winter Across the High Peaks of the West

ezgif4c72247072ecd5gif-1759630798948.gif

We've heard Toto bless the rains down in Africa, but what about the snow?

Well, the Sahara Desert actually received 16" of rare snow Sunday, January 7th. This is the second winter in a row after a snowless streak of nearly 40 years. December of 2016 was the last time the Sahara Desert saw snow.

https://twitter.com/Strange_Sounds/status/950119545167077377

How does this happen? Well, a high pressure over Europe ushered in a very cold air mass into northern Africa.

https://twitter.com/Tonylean/status/950412965576093696

You can even see that snow all the way from space. Check out a view from NASA satellites where you can see the blanket of snow in a very unusual spot.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-85927" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/01/Sahara-snow-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Now when you listen to this song just replace "rain" with "snow."

&nbsp;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTQbiNvZqaY

&nbsp;

For WeahterNation, Meteorologist Kate Mantych

Bless the SNOW Down in Africa

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average

Atlantic: Watching Two Tropical Waves

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of A

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

TEMPERATURESA cold front sweeping through the

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

Moisture from the Gulf is forecast to ride ar

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts

Fall turns to Winter Across the High Peaks of the West

ROCKIES - A strong, upper-level low-pressure