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4th Of July Flooding Threats, 4th Of July Rain Threats

3 Jul 2013, 10:57 am

It’s the mid-summer holiday season, even if only for a day (and technically, summer just started a couple of weeks ago), and many folks are wondering what they can expect for tomorrow’s forecast.  We’re going to go a bit more in-depth in the next few paragraphs on what you can expect, where YOU live (assuming you live in the United States!).

 

Sunrise in Avon, NC: Thanks to Outer Beaches Realty
Sunrise in Avon, NC: Thanks to Outer Beaches Realty

How about this view?  How’d you like to this this transition to your fireworks viewing for tomorrow (or today, if you’re going to some earlier fireworks seen in some cities).

Well, we have a sunny or partly cloudy forecast for large sections of the nation – but here is what you can expect temperature-wise around the nation:

 

4th Of July Temps
4th Of July Temps

 

Notice places like Phoenix: Still triple digits, but much more moderated versions of that.  Also, the upper 80s and even middle to upper 90s in places like Seattle and Portland are gone, and instead looking like 70s.

That warmth begins to trek into the Midwest – but the Midwest will look at still very comfortable summer weather for Thursday.  Up to 84 in places like Minneapolis, and 85 in St. Louis.

How about the East, though?

We’re still talking about an upper-level low pressure center dominating the weather pattern for the eastern half of the nation.

Take a look at 200mb winds, or winds at what could be considered the jetstream layer during the summer months (the jet is lower during the winter, closer to 300mb):

 

GFS Upper Low
GFS Upper Low

 

See the large “L” in the middle of that image?  That is your upper low, and it is deep in a trough of low pressure in the region.  The eastern, or right-hand, side is where Gulf moisture and moisture from as far south as the Bay of Campeche and Central America is being drawn in from.

All that moisture has to go somewhere, and unfortunately for residents of the Florida panhandle and northward, much of it will fall near where you live…

 

Florida Flood Threat
Florida Flood Threat

 

Pretty impressive rainfall tallies are possible, and some of that rain outside the green shaded area could be fairly impressive, as well.  UPDATE: Hearing that many events at Panama City Beach are being postponed from Thursday to FRIDAY, the 5th of July.  Keep that in mind if you’re seeing things popping up in other cities as well.

Here are the future radar maps for around fireworks-viewing-time for the East, the West, and the Midwest and central and southern Plains states:

 

Fireworks Viewing: Eastern U.S.
Fireworks Viewing: Eastern U.S.

 

Fireworks Viewing: Central U.S.
Fireworks Viewing: Central U.S.

 

Fireworks Viewing: Western U.S.
Fireworks Viewing: Western U.S.

 

Luckily, the only organized rainfall looks to come in that narrow strip back in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.

If you’re looking for a more “simplified” view to these maps, an all-in-one map – if you will – then look no further than below:

 

Fireworks Viewing Forecast (For Thursday Night)
Fireworks Viewing Forecast (For Thursday Night)

 

Keep in mind, that some of the “poor” labeled regions could see rain subside long enough for fireworks to be launched, or rain could even be over by that time!

Have a great holiday weekend!

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

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