Kevin Schneider

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<p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Right now, </span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Hurricane Polo</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"> is churning southwest of Mexico (above). Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. In fact, there is now a new record for the year since there has not been a hurricane formation. This is the first time in 60 years the Atlantic Basin has not seen a hurricane since the satellite era in 1966.</span></p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074149-1790084525643.png">Pacific Basin</h1><p>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with some impacts to land possible this week. <strong>Odalys </strong>formed Sunday morning, and there is now <strong>Hurricane Polo</strong> to the south of Mexico. There are two other areas of <strong>medium and high </strong>chance for tropical development in the next week ahead.</p><h3>Polo</h3><p>Hurricane Polo became yet another category 5 hurricane Tuesday morning after undergoing extremely rapid intensification. Shortly after formation late Sunday night, it added 115 mph to its sustained wind speed by Tuesday morning. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074129-1790084646568.png">Even though Polo is a monster lurking off the coast, direct impacts will likely not be felt, with just a slim chance that even the tropical storm force winds reach onshore. However, periodic heavy rain and angry seas will affect the southern Mexican beaches over the next few days. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074320-1790084768473.png"></p><h3>Odalys</h3><p>This cyclone has struggled to strengthen much since its formation. That will be a theme of its lifespan, as it ultimately succumbs to a stronger cyclone this weekend in Polo. Watch how the European model has this all playing out into next week...</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 07-49-22-1790084993608.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1><p><strong>Tropical Storm Fay</strong> will slowly drift in the open Atlantic before turning back to the southwest and moving away from the Azores. This system won't directly affect landmasses but could send some waves to the Azores or Canary Islands in the coming days. There is a new area of <strong>low</strong> potential for tropical development.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 190457-1790039103904.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075045-1790085064967.png"></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifying in the Pacific

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Adrian Hernandez

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<p>Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a strengthening offshore low in the northeast late in the week. A setup we're all too familiar with. Models are showing some slight agreement on the track, but shifting a tad into late week.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 09-41-05-1790084484267.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Regardless of it's track, coastal cities and states are slightly more at risk for heavy rain. Thus, a 3-7 day hazards outlook has been issued for cities along the I-95 corridor from Massachusetts down to North Carolina!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 094233-1790084572595.png"></p><p>With regard to its strengthening, sea-surface temperatures that far north are still running on the warmer side.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 103639-1790001420895.png"></p><p>With these kinds of setups, gusty winds are of utmost concern. We could see potential 40 mph gusts or higher along the coastline through the end of the week!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 09-43-18-1790084617758.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Rainfall totals are also expected to be higher along the coast as well.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 094353-1790084686844.png"></p><p>We spoke to Eric Hoeflich, Meteorologist, NWS Mt. Holly. Here are some of the impacts we are currently expecting.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/SOT_TRT_1.00_LARGE COASTAL IMPACTS AND GIANT WAVES_NWS MT. HOLLY_ERIC HOEFLICH_BD_E092126-1790039480469.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>There's still a way to go in the forecast. Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest!</p>

Coastal Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

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<h2><strong>WHAT TO EXPECT</strong></h2><p>Record rainfall fell this weekend across the Ohio River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. On Monday, Ohio tacked on almost 4 more inches in spots. More rainfall is on the way, continuing the risk of flooding. Because of this risk, flood watches remain in place over the next few days across OH, PA, and WV for additional rainfall.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075632-1790085405907.png">Storms &amp; Timing</h2><p>A frontal boundary will continue to linger, bringing more rain, with heavy rain embedded in some of the storms that develop. Rounds of rain will continue to develop through Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 07-58-32-1790085533334.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2><strong>RAINFALL TOTALS</strong></h2><p>While heavy rain will be possible in some spots the next few days, at least the bulls eye is moving. The heftiest totals look to come down in Virginia down to parts of the Carolinas through Wednesday. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075700-1790085436091.png"></p>

More Flooding Concerns Out East

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT</h1><p>Severe storms developed Monday afternoon and evening as a surface cold front combined with instability. More storms will redevelop along this boundary this afternoon, capable of damaging winds and some small hail again.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075949-1790085612308.png"></p><h1>TIMING</h1><p>As a front continues to linger more storms will continue. Things will taper off overnight, but more storms will pick up again on Wednesday afternoon.</p><p></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 08-02-33-1790085774602.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Raleigh will potentially see some of the heaviest rainfall, with multiple inches possible. That could add a flooding concern onto a damaging wind threat today. </p>

Severe Threat Continues In The Southeast

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<p>Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"></p><h1></h1><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1><p>Overnight, we have a severe threat in place for portions of CO, KS and OK. Storms fired up today, bringing damaging winds and hail. Any storms that stick around into the overnight hours can see damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/sssa-1789954285946.png"></p><p>A few storms will linger in the overnight hours, with some heavy rain possible embedded in the storms.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnightss-1789954388198.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p></p>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

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<p>It's been a long, hot summer. That might be an understatement, actually, as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608"><u> the U.S. experienced it's hottest summer on record</u></a>! Areas like the Southwest were especially warm, but even through September the South and Southeast have been scorching! Just in time for fall, a cold front will be cutting across the country to start the week, dropping highs from the 90s to the 60s in some areas! While it won't be completely dry behind the front, many people will feel a significant cool down.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073324-1789911238058.png"></p><p>Unfortunately, for folks along the Gulf Coast and down into Florida, this front won't be strong enough to reach that far south, but for areas like Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Virginia, this will usher in a major change!</p><p>Highs will drop 20-30 degrees in many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, including Oklahoma City and Washington D.C.!</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073414-1789911266216.png">Autumnal Equinox</h1><p>Fall begins on Tuesday, at 8:04 pm ET, which is the exact time the suns rays cross over the equator the southern hemisphere begins to lean more toward the sun.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093856-1789832359623.png">Both the vernal and autumnal equinox (Latin for equal night) marks the point of the year when the earth gets hit equally by the sun in both hemispheres. This is different from the winter and summer solstice, when the hemispheres reach their point of maximum inclination toward the sun.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093913-1789832367580.png"></p>

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer.<br><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png"></p><p>Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.</p><h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1><p>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2><p>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png"></p><p>The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"></p><h1>Winter Outlook</h1><p>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png"></p>

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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"Phil? Phil Connors?!"  Ok, I had to quote something from the 1993 movie Groundhog Day. This morning Punxsutawney Phil made his famous forecast. Here is what that means.
<h1>6 More Weeks of Winter</h1>
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Phil cast a shadow this morning and that means 6 more weeks of winter according to the legendary groundhog. Here is the comparison for how many times Phil has seen or not seen his shadow.

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<h1>Fun Facts</h1>
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We know the odds are not in favor of Phil to predict the climate for the entire Country over the next 6 weeks, but it is fun to suspend disbelief and enjoy this time of the year.

More updates on this and the major winter storm blanketing the Nation are all coming up on @WeatherNation

According to Phil: 6 More Weeks of Winter

6 More Weeks of Winter

Fun Facts

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifying in the Pacific

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

Coastal Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a stre

More Flooding Concerns Out East

WHAT TO EXPECTRecord rainfall fell this weeke

Severe Threat Continues In The Southeast

WHAT TO EXPECTSevere storms developed Monday

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

Severe storms and heavy rain have been target

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

It's been a long, hot summer. That might be a

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

The second largest reservoir in the United St