It's early June: it's hot, it's humid, it's going to storm this afternoon. We get in the habit of doing this most afternoons in the Summer. And this is a summer-like pattern we've been locked into so far this week.

Severe storms will be possible from the North Dakota border down the Front Range to West Texas this afternoon. The surest bet will be on the High Plains: North and South Dakota, where all threats will be in play.

TORNADO THREAT

Most storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, with some hailstones in excess of 2 inches in diameter, but the tornado threat won't be for everyone. The closer the upper-level low is, the better the odds of a tornado touching down. This gives us the wind shear needed to get storms to rotate.

UNCERTAINTY

Storms lingering into the morning hours will give every day some uncertainty when waking up. Many models don't handle intense squall lines well in setups like this - where the jet stream winds are WAY north of the area. So the forecast could change drastically some days - get in the habit of checking the forecast once or twice: morning & afternoon.

NORTHERN PLAINS

Storms will begin discrete in the afternoon, before forming into a line of storms by the evening. A large hail and isolated tornado threat will turn into more of a damaging wind threat by the overnight hours.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

Thunderstorms will favor the afternoon hours farther south. It's uncertain how far east the threat will migrate, if it will reach the Oklahoma City or Dallas metro areas.