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<div>Lucy is originally from the Boston area but has spent the last four years forecasting and living in Colorado! She stayed in the northeast for her education, graduating Summa Cum Laude from SUNY Oswego with a B.S. in Meteorology. Just a few days after graduation, she made the cross country move to Colorado Springs, CO to begin her career at KKTV, the CBS affiliate. Lucy has covered historic blizzards, tornadoes, windstorms, the largest wildfires in Colorado state history and dust storms ... they truly "get it all" in Colorado! Lucy is excited to forecast on a national level and continue her passion of explaining the science behind the weather!</div>
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Lucy Bergemann

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It is all thanks to a surface low-pressure system and upper-level trough that give a shove to the ridge of high pressure that has been sitting over the south. There will be a significant convergence of moisture around the trough and frontal boundary too, allowing for meaningful (and much-needed) rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. Models are indicating upwards of 5"+ of rainfall in parts of the Red River Valley and Ozarks. This rainfall is desperately needed as many locations are under extreme and exceptional drought conditions. It is likely we see flooding concerns not only in urban areas but also in rural communities where the ground is hardened and struggle to absorb new moisture.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/forecast moisture-1696354731052.png">A few storms will be out there this afternoon and evening but activity will be much more widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening. In fact, a huge cluster of storms will bring heavy rain into Oklahoma and Arkansas. By Thursday afternoon, the front will be closer to the Gulf Coast with the opportunity of heavy rain and flooding from Houston to San Antonio.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/Baron-1696339508386.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The other factor of this system is the big cool down on the way - after an extremely hot, and in some cases, record-setting summer we are finally looking at fall settling in. Highs today are in the 80s and 90s for the south, running about 10° above average. The heat continues today before a big cool down arrives by Wednesday and Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/10-02_rsc tue thu-1696300821009.png">

Extremely Heavy Rain for Texas Today

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A powerful ridge of high pressure that has brought record high temperatures to the central U.S. and caused the Twin Cities Marathon to be cancelled this weekend is shifting east, and behind it, a significant cool down for northern Plains. Areas west of I-29 will get in on the cooler, more average weather today while those in the Upper Midwest will see one last day of hot air. As the high pressure dome is pushed east by an incoming low, so are the warm temperatures, with the potential for record heat in the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/n central highs-1696339617162.png">A few lingering record highs will be possible in the Upper Great Lakes today with the trailing edge of the heat. However, much more widespread potential record highs to the Northeast and New England. In fact, some of the records in jeopardy are over 130 years ago - set in the 1890s!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/dots-1696273949722.png">Highs will run in the 70s and 80s, which isn't all that "hot" but for early October, this is certainly much above average. This will be anywhere from 10-15° above average on Tuesday and Wednesday. The same cool air that sweeps into the High Plains will also arrive in the Northeast by Thursday and Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2-1696299402181.png">

Record Heat Coming to the Northeast, Cooling in the Great Lakes ...

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Happening Wednesday, October 4th at 2:20 PM ET, FEMA will be conducting a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). Test messages will be sent to all cell phones with emergency alerts enabled, TVs and radios. The test is broken down into two parts: <h2>PART 1: Emergency Alert System (EAS) </h2>Test messages are sent to radios and televisions. From FEMA: <ul><li>The EAS portion of the test is scheduled to last approximately one minute and will be conducted with the participation of radio and television broadcasters, cable systems, satellite radio and television providers&nbsp;and wireline video providers.</li><li>The test message will be similar to the regular monthly EAS test messages with which the public is familiar. It will state: “This is a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System, issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, covering the United States from 14:20 to 14:50 hours ET. This is only a test. No action is required by the public.</li></ul><h2>PART 2: Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)</h2>These are sent to cell phones only. The test will display in English or Spanish, depending on the user language settings. The following is from FEMA: All wireless phones should receive the message only once. The following can be expected from the nationwide WEA test:<ul><li>Beginning at approximately 2:20 p.m. ET, cell towers will broadcast the test for approximately 30 minutes. During this time, WEA-compatible wireless phones that are switched on, within range of an active cell tower, and whose wireless provider participates in WEA, should be capable of receiving the test message.&nbsp;</li><li>For consumers, the message that appears on their phones will read: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.”</li><li>Phones with the main menu set to Spanish will display: “ESTA ES UNA PRUEBA del Sistema Nacional de Alerta de Emergencia. No se necesita acción.”</li></ul>The test sections will happen at the same time, so if you are listening to the radio and have your cell phone expect to hear both messages. According to FEMA, "The purpose of the Oct. 4 test is to ensure that the systems continue to be effective means of warning the public about emergencies, particularly those on the national level."In case of widespread severe weather or events, the backup/postponement day will be for October 11th.

Happening Wednesday: Nationwide Test of the Emergency Alert System

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A very sluggish weather pattern will result in a persistent forecast across the Southern Plains in the coming days. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will flare up along a cold front from New Mexico into the Ozarks! Not only do we have the severe risk on Tuesday (below) but we also have the opportunity for significant severe weather from OKC to Lubbock on Wednesday (above). This is part of a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/pattern-change-cooler-air-rain-coming-to-texas">larger pattern change</a> bringing heavy rain and cooler air to the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/svr wed-1696356811470.png">Severe weather chances will continue into Wednesday again around the Red River Valley area. So you want to make sure you are weather ready and have a couple ways to receive alerts. Once again all modes of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/spc wed-1696357753717.png">Showers and storms develop along a dry line today, but then an incoming cold front will blossom storms into much more impressive clusters by Wednesday. The front drops into central and southern Texas late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with severe weather likely continuing.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-03 12-11-50-1696357772191.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For the latest updates, tune in to the WeatherNation app and on-air at :30 past the hour, each hour, in the Central Regional Forecast.

Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

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It is almost time for Katmai National Park &amp; Preserve's "Fat Bear Week" which begins on October 4th and continues through October 10th!<h2>What is fat bear week?</h2>Fat bear week is put on by <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://explore.org">explore.org</a> and Katmai N.P.. According to Katmai N.P. &amp; Preserve, fat bear week "is a global tournament-style bracket competition in which the public votes for their favorite fattest bear. The National Park Service launched Fat Bear Week in 2014, when it was simply Fat Bear Tuesday". In 2015, it launched into an entire week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/bracket-for-reveal-1696290871433-1696341008645.png"><h2>Why fat bear week?</h2>Fat bear week is put on by the park &amp; preserve to increase engagement and awareness about Alaska's brown bear population. The goal is to celebrate the "Brooks River brown bears at Katmai and its healthy and remarkable ecosystem"<h2>How do I vote?</h2>To vote you can head over to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://explore.org/fat-bear-week">Explore.Org's</a> page to cast your official vote. The voting runs each day from 12 - 9 &nbsp;p.m. Eastern (9 a.m. - 6 p.m. Pacific) in a bracket style event. The "final four" is held on October 9th with the final round on October 10th. The winner will be crowned the "Fattest Bear". Share your vote with the hashtag #FatBearWeek on social media!<h2>Who are the fat bears?</h2>This year there are 12 competitors including this year's Jr. Fat Bear champion is deemed "big enough" to compete with the big bears! Some are familiar faces and others are new to the crew. Below are some of the former champions and participants in the 2023 season! The rules of the competition is that the bear has to be present at the beginning and end of summer and documented by Rangers in order to participate. The reigning champion is 747, one of the largest brown bears on Earth, estimated to weigh 1400lbs! He was first discovered at the preserve in 2004 and is now a seasoned bear on the river. He also has won fat bear week in 2020.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/747-1696281504448-1696341245594.png">The most decorated Fat Bear is Otis who won the inaugural Fat Bear competition in 2014 and then again in 2016, 2017, and 2021. According to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://explore.org">explore.org</a>, "Otis was four to six years old when he was first identified in 2001, and he’s now one of the older male bears at Brooks River"<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/otis-1696341197254.png">Holly was the fat bear champ of 2019 and has returned again in 2023 to try and reclaim her status! It is possible Holly may give birth to another litter of cubs in her den this year, meaning her "bulk up" is essential. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/holly-1696340923817.png">To read more about the Fat Bears and the competition for 2023, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://explore.org/hall-of-champions">click here</a>. WeatherNation will bring you updates on Fat Bear week as they come!

Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

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The big weather story for the next couple of days will be about the large upper level low roaming across the country! Severe weather chances will be possible from North Dakota all the way down to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/day-to-day-severe-weather-chance-in-sw-plains">Texas</a>. Today (above), the risk shifts into the Eastern Dakotas along with much of Kansas and Nebraska, elevating to an enhanced, level 3 out of 5 threat.The Significant hail risk has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center from Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle. Along with large hail threat, a few isolated tornadoes will be possible too. This is where there is a severe thunderstorm WATCH through the afternoon and evening hours. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/SVR-1696358800204.png">Rainfall totals will be heavy in some spots with some isolated amounts over two to three inches! Please have a couple of ways to receive weather alerts. The good news is that by Wednesday the front will lose some of its steam limiting the severe weather threat.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-03 12-45-05-1696358742774.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Severe Weather Chances for the High Plains

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Summer of 1993, New England Dragway. That's when and where Steve knew he wanted to become a meteorologist. More than 20 years later he is extremely fortunate and blessed to be able to live his childhood dream. As a lover of math and science, Steve had a consistent interest in weather in elementary, middle, and high school before discovering you can major in meteorology. He attended Lyndon State College in Vermont where he received a bachelor's in meteorology-broadcasting and associate's in television news. He has worked as a meteorologist and reporter in Winchester, VA, Burlington, VT, and most recently in West Palm Beach, FL. He's recognized by the American Meteorological Society with the Certification of Broadcast Meteorologists.

Steven Glazier

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Set a reminder in your phone and calendar! The next solar eclipse is coming right up on Saturday, October 14th beginning at about 10 a.m. ET. This will be visible to millions of people in the Western Hemisphere, especially here across America.To refresh you on this subject, a solar eclipse occurs when the Earth, Moon, and Sun all align where the moon is in the middle. This essentially blocks our view of the sun. We don't get this all the time, because of the differing elliptical paths of the Moon and Earth's orbits. But once in a while, the eclipse comes around. This time, in mid-October, it will be an "annular" eclipse, meaning the moon is just a tad smaller than the sun (as it appears in our sky). The moon never completely fills out the perimeter of the sun, but rather results in a phenomenon called the "ring of fire."<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/Annualr vs Total-1696017313039.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/Solar Eclipse Alignment-1696017318118.jpg">Here is a chart of the locations and times of when the eclipse begins, peaks, and ends. These are cities within the path totality.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/2023 Eclilpse Timing-1696017352192.jpg">The path of totality will move from Oregon to Nevada, directly over the Four Corners, and through Texas. The best chances of seeing this eclipse will be in Nevada and the Four Corners, because this region usually has the sunniest sky in mid-October.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/2023 Eclipse Path-1696017350676.jpg">Before you run out and look directly in the sun, stop! Make sure you have proper eyewear. Regular sunglasses won't work to keep your eyes safe. You'll need proper, and legitimate, solar sunglasses. If you can't make it to Saturday, October 14th's eclipse you'll have another chance at a TOTAL solar eclipse April 8, 2024. The total solar eclipse can be a greater phenomenon because of the view of the corona!

Get Ready for the Next Solar Eclipse!

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Following an abnormally dry winter, the southwestern US was off to a rough start for the Spring and Summer months with drought categories climbing to extreme to exceptional conditions yielding the ignition of several fires now consuming thousands of acres.

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With dry fuels in place, this leaves the land vulnerable for wildfires as conditions continue to heat up across the area. Unfortunately, several states now contending with active wildfires in the region from parts of the western New Mexico in the Gila National Forest all the way north into parts of the San Juans around Durango, CO where the 416 Fire has already scorched 25,900 acres and only 15% contained.

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Thankfully, good news coming out of the Ute Park Fire in New Mexico which is nearly 100% contained but the charred land left behind will make much of the terrain susceptible to mudslides as the area is forecasted to receive heavy rain by the weekend.

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So where is the good news? The good news is there is rain in the forecast for the weekend. And not just any old rain. A surge of rich, tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Bud will bring relief to some of these locations by the weekend.

Bud is currently churning up the coast near Cabo San Lucas, MX.  Rough surf and and dangerous rip currents remains the only concern as Bud continues to weaken 150 miles offshore.

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Bud is forecasted to weaken as it nears landfall around the Baja Peninsula by Thursday. What is left of Bud will continue to track into the southwest reaching southern Arizona by Friday and New Mexico and southern Colorado by Saturday.

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As many of us know, even the best medicine comes with side effects. The medicine, in this case, is the moisture of course and the side effect will be the risk for flash flooding across the desert terrain by this weekend. Please exercise caution if you plan to be in these areas this weekend. The southwest floods very easily even with only .25-.50" of rainfall.  Arizona and New Mexico can expect the first showers and storms by Saturday with more widespread tropical moisture moving into New Mexico and southwestern Colorado by Sunday.

Meteorologist Merry Matthews

&nbsp;

Bud Brings Moisture to Drought Stricken Southwest

Extremely Heavy Rain for Texas Today

It is all thanks to a surface low-pressure sy

Record Heat Coming to the Northeast, Cooling in the Great Lakes ...

A powerful ridge of high pressure that has br

Happening Wednesday: Nationwide Test of the Emergency Alert System

Happening Wednesday, October 4th at 2:20 PM E

Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

A very sluggish weather pattern will result i

Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

It is almost time for Katmai National Park &a

Severe Weather Chances for the High Plains

The big weather story for the next couple of

Get Ready for the Next Solar Eclipse!

Set a reminder in your phone and calendar! Th

It is almost time for Katmai National Park &a