Kevin Schneider

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<h2>Eastern Pacific Ocean</h2>We are keeping our eyes on TROPICAL STORM ERICK. An environment of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures and low level moisture will allow Erick to strengthen significantly in the next two days and bring heavy rain and damaging winds to Mexico. The Latest forecast from the NHC has it strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall near Acapulco, Mexico. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 031709-1750151842461.png">Heavy rainfall is expected to bring landslide and mudslide potential. Widespread totals in the coastal areas of Oaxaca are expected between 8-12". Isolated locations will receive up to 20". Travel plans in the area are discouraged. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/171144INTQPF_sm-1750166839403.gif"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 031736-1750151863022.png">The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record-breaking start, with five named storms: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila and now Erick. This level of early activity is well ahead of the seasonal average, which typically sees the first named storm by June 10, the second by June 24, and the third by July 6. Dalila forming on the 13th marked the fastest four storms to be named in the basin since record keeping began, beating 1974, which saw Dolores form by the 14th of June.ATLANTICThe Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has remained quiet with no named storms forming so far. This lack of activity is being attributed to three key atmospheric factors: persistent wind shear, marginally warm water temperatures, and the presence of Saharan dust. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104826-1748537463299.png">The Saharan dust, which often travels westward from Africa, can suppress tropical development by introducing dry, stable air into the atmosphere. In addition, wind shear is disrupting the organization of tropical waves and disturbances, preventing them from developing into more significant systems. While sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support storm formation, they are not as favorable as in recent years, further limiting activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-16 142900-1750105746265.png">Although the Atlantic is off to a slow start, this is not unusual for June. Historically, tropical activity in the Atlantic does not typically ramp up until later in the summer, particularly in August and September, with the peak occurring around the 15th of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Day1SVR-1749823458384.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104849-1748537876634.png">For now, the quiet beginning to the season is considered perfectly normal.&nbsp;The early season will more often see more tropical storms than hurricanes, but hurricanes can form and impact the United States, so it's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-prep-week-2025">always best to be prepared</a>. Andrea is the first name on the list in the Atlantic in 2025.NOAA and Colorado State are expecting an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-hurricane-season">Click here to read more.</a>

Administrator

T.S. Erick to Strengthen, Hit Mexico

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Tracey Anthony

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A Moderate Risk for excessive rain has been issued for PA and WV. This is a level 3 out of 4 flooding threat and indicates a significant potential for flash flooding, often associated with:<ul><li>Widespread rainfall</li><li>Saturated soils</li><li>Urban areas with poor drainage</li><li>Terrain that enhances runoff</li></ul>These areas were just hit hard this weekend and it will only take a little rain to cause major new impacts. Wheeling &amp; Fairmont WV, were impacted in a devastating way over the weekend.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934617419605258267" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934617419605258267"></div><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934385430943928626" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934385430943928626"></div>An active pattern is impacting the mid-Atlantic, so the flood threat continues this week. A combination of tropical moisture and an approaching cold front will continue to bring widespread showers, thunderstorms, and an elevated risk for severe and flash flooding.<h1>Forecast Rainfall:</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 090937-1750172987114.png">The atmosphere is saturated with dewpoints in the 70s. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible with strong storms, with new rain totals up to 3", falling on top of saturated soil. Flood Watches stretch from Virginia through Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 091558-1750173371267.png">The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of this region under a Marginal Risk&nbsp;(Level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Tuesday. Damaging winds will be the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 090126-1750172497837.png">More strong storms are expected Wednesday in the I-95 corridor from Philly to DC/Baltimore and the DelMarVa.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 091630-1750173398382.png">Catch your East Regional Forecast at :10 after each hour on WeatherNationTV.

Active Pattern Sparks Mid-Atlantic Flood and Severe Threat

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As a frontal boundary moved through unstable air, strong to severe storms popped up across the plains and Midwest on Monday. These storms have brought tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A 101 mph wind gust was recorded in Wichita, KS! Waconia, MN recorded hailstones of up to 3.25" on Monday. That is around the size of a baseball! 20 tornados were reported, most in Minnesota, but also including this picturesque storm in Nebraska. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934815766932803755" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934815766932803755"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 073823-1750167516776.png">ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE</h1>I mean, can we get something that moves for once?? It feels like every system we've had recently has its grip on us for a few days, not ones that are in and out of here. That's what happens this time of year. As the jet stream retreats north, there isn't nearly as much wind in the sails of these systems. The biggest concern with the afternoon/evening batch of storms will be more 70-100 mph winds and massive hail. With the confidence being high enough that we'll see widespread winds, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded portions of Kansas to a MODERATE risk for severe weather (4 out of 5).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 081529-1750169746649.png"><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 074125-1750167704825.png">Timing:</h1>More rounds of storms will move through, with things heating back up and becoming more widespread again on Tuesday. Deep instability builds as an area of low pressure moves through Kansas. Strong updrafts will build within storms quickly during the late afternoon and early evening. After dinner, a strong line will move out of Colorado and merge with storms out ahead of the low creating a strong overnight MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/bams 617-1750170271640.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Expect pockets of heavy rainfall to create localized flooding. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center highlights Kansas for the most likely area to see flooding. That includes Wichita, who is already reeling from strong overnight storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 083257-1750170815819.png">On Wednesday, the entire system will slide east. The center of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region, while deep Gulf moisture builds out ahead of the cold front. Because it is more frontal driven, damaging winds will be the primary threat. From Detroit to St. Louis, an Enhanced Risk from the Storm Prediction Center highlights the area most likely to see severe storms. This is also the spot with the best chance at a tornado. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 082829-1750170523765.png">By Thursday, the front moves to the east coast, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/active-pattern-sparks-mid-atlantic-flood-severe-threat">impacting locations that saw extreme flooding earlier in the week</a>. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 082921-1750170573236.png">

100 mph Winds Reported in Kansas with More On The Way

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A powerful heat wave continues to grip the Southwest, with dangerously high temperatures impacting much of Arizona, southeastern California, and parts of southern Nevada. Another round of records was achieved on Monday across the southwest. Imperial, CA broke a new record. It recorded a high of 115°, beating out the old record of 114°. Monday was day two of record breaking heat for Imperial, CA and El Paso, TX. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/ERCORD FOFF-1750122902662.png">Cities like Tucson, Phoenix, and Gila Bend are experiencing highs between 108°F and 114°F. The heat is especially intense in deserts and low-elevation areas, where overnight temperatures remain elevated, offering little relief. This prolonged heat is increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations and those without access to cooling.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 3-1750166734081.png">The extreme heat is forecast to persist through Wednesday, with some areas potentially seeing continued elevated temperatures into Thursday. While a slight cooling trend may begin midweek, the National Weather Service warns that heat risks will remain high, especially in desert regions. The Heat Risk tool continues to show “major to extreme” risk levels, indicating that even healthy individuals could be affected without proper precautions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 1-1750166632921.png">Catch your Southwest Regional Forecast each hour at :50 past the hour.

Record Breaking Heat in the Southwest

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Chris Tomer

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Thunderstorms are blowing off the east side of the Rockies and moving into West TX, west OK, KS, NE, and eastern NM. That's where we could see severe weather through Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer southern severe risk-1750039802498.jpg"><h1>Rain Forecast:</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/TOMER SOUTH RAIN FORECAST-1750039885058.jpg"><h1>Timing:</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer south futurecast-1750039844878.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay weather-aware, especially during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and avoid driving through flooded roadways. With severe weather and flooding threats overlapping, Texans should prepare for possible power outages, road closures, and rapidly changing weather conditions.&nbsp;Catch your South Central Regional Forecast at :30 after, each our on WeatherNationTV or stream it on demand!

Southern Heavy Rain & Severe Threat

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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<h2>SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS</h2><h1>Into Monday</h1>Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible overnight into Monday morning. An Enhance Severe Weather Risk (orange) remains in place.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer mt svr threat-1750040014296.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer mt wind-1750040059693.jpg"><h3>FORECAST TIMING</h3>Storms will be most active in the afternoons, as moisture stuck along the east side of the Continental Divide turns into strong updrafts as daytime heating builds. While a few storms will persist into the overnight hours, most areas will see quiet conditions overnight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer mt futurecast-1750034180773.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Thunderstorms will be heavy enough to trigger isolated flash flooding, especially on Friday and Sunday. This region looks to remain very active into next week with several rounds of severe weather possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1749956920265.png">More details on the northwest can always be found :50 past the hour during your Western Regional Forecast.

Northwest: From Heatwave to Thunderstorms

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Okay. Explanation needed. Dr. Jim is the only father at WeatherNation (of humans). That's why I jar you, the reader, with his headshot. Capeesh? Alright, let's get into that forecast for Dad! Here's what we're looking at for Father's Day.<h1>SWEATY DADS</h1>Most of the country will be hot and muggy in the 80s and 90s, and the southwest will take the cake for warmest. There is one exception, that is the northeast, which is stuck in the cooler 60s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 6-1749981079865.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Day1SVR-1749925772739.png">As a ridge of high pressure builds in the desert southwest, temperatures have started soaring. By Saturday and Sunday, areas like Phoenix will top out beyond 110°, prompting heat alerts. While this likely won't threaten any record highs for the area, it is still the hottest temperatures we've seen this year. Make sure Dad's drinking water early and often!<h1>TOUGH TIME LIGHTING THE GRILL</h1>We're monitoring a few areas of low pressure that could rain on your Father's Day parade. The High Plains to Upper Midwest could see some strong to severe thunderstorms as back-to-back surface lows slide through. Lots of Gulf moisture will be moving through the heart of the country, fueling shower and thunderstorm chances from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Mississippi valley. We're also watching a potent system moving into the Mid-Atlantic that could bring heavy rain and flooding into early next week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/New Baron Video 3-1749956013851.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Of course, the Northeast is used to this, so they assumed this was going to happen, I'm sure! Syracuse hasn't seen a weekend yet in 2025 that hasn't had at least a trace of precipitation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 105535-1749660945836.png">Tune in to WeatherNation TV for your latest forecast update - <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/watch-us">How to Watch</a>

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY: Here is the Forecast

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Following an abnormally dry winter, the southwestern US was off to a rough start for the Spring and Summer months with drought categories climbing to extreme to exceptional conditions yielding the ignition of several fires now consuming thousands of acres.

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With dry fuels in place, this leaves the land vulnerable for wildfires as conditions continue to heat up across the area. Unfortunately, several states now contending with active wildfires in the region from parts of the western New Mexico in the Gila National Forest all the way north into parts of the San Juans around Durango, CO where the 416 Fire has already scorched 25,900 acres and only 15% contained.

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Thankfully, good news coming out of the Ute Park Fire in New Mexico which is nearly 100% contained but the charred land left behind will make much of the terrain susceptible to mudslides as the area is forecasted to receive heavy rain by the weekend.

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So where is the good news? The good news is there is rain in the forecast for the weekend. And not just any old rain. A surge of rich, tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Bud will bring relief to some of these locations by the weekend.

Bud is currently churning up the coast near Cabo San Lucas, MX.  Rough surf and and dangerous rip currents remains the only concern as Bud continues to weaken 150 miles offshore.

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Bud is forecasted to weaken as it nears landfall around the Baja Peninsula by Thursday. What is left of Bud will continue to track into the southwest reaching southern Arizona by Friday and New Mexico and southern Colorado by Saturday.

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As many of us know, even the best medicine comes with side effects. The medicine, in this case, is the moisture of course and the side effect will be the risk for flash flooding across the desert terrain by this weekend. Please exercise caution if you plan to be in these areas this weekend. The southwest floods very easily even with only .25-.50" of rainfall.  Arizona and New Mexico can expect the first showers and storms by Saturday with more widespread tropical moisture moving into New Mexico and southwestern Colorado by Sunday.

Meteorologist Merry Matthews

&nbsp;

Bud Brings Moisture to Drought Stricken Southwest

T.S. Erick to Strengthen, Hit Mexico

Eastern Pacific OceanWe are keeping our eyes

Active Pattern Sparks Mid-Atlantic Flood and Severe Threat

A Moderate Risk for excessive rain has been i

100 mph Winds Reported in Kansas with More On The Way

As a frontal boundary moved through unstable

Record Breaking Heat in the Southwest

A powerful heat wave continues to grip the So

Southern Heavy Rain & Severe Threat

Thunderstorms are blowing off the east side o

Northwest: From Heatwave to Thunderstorms

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKSInto MondaySevere thun

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY: Here is the Forecast

Okay. Explanation needed. Dr. Jim is the only