CSU Releases First Hurricane Forecast for 2026
Spring is in full swing which means it's time to start looking ahead to this year's upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic!
Each year, Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Department releases multiple forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, including one of the earliest issued among major forecasters.
CSU just released their first forecast for 2026, which is calling for a near normal to slightly below average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The average season in the Atlantic is just slightly higher than this initial prediction, meaning several impactful storms are still possible. As a reminder, even below average seasons can have major impacts depending on where storms form which is impossible to predict months ahead of time.
You've probably heard rumblings about the burgeoning El Niños, and possible Super Niño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Niño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in CSU's below average forecast, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.
The confidence in an El Nino developing this summer is quite high, but the remaining question is how strong will the event be? Weak El Niños typically have a lower impact on the tropics in the Atlantic while strong El Niños have a more consistent impact. This year's El Niño is trending toward the strong side, but it's still too early to say for certain.
Why do El Niños typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.
Even with a slightly below average season, two major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so stay prepared and stay tuned. WeatherNation will always keep you updated on the latest in the tropics!
