Each year, Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project releases multiple forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, including one of the earliest issued among major forecasters. On August 5, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team released their final update heading into the peak of the season. With El Niño holding strong, it's not surprising that CSU continued their below average forecast for the season. They expect 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

This forecast includes Tropical Storm Arthur, which made landfall along the Texas coast in mid-June and brought tornadoes and flooding rain to Louisiana and Mississippi, and Tropical Storm Bertha, which traced the Gulf coast in July with minimal impacts. Remember, as Arthur proved, even below average seasons can have major impacts.

NOAA is expected to release an update to their seasonal forecast this week. We'll bring you those numbers as soon as they become available.

FORECAST FACTORS

You've probably heard rumblings about the strengthening El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The continuation of El Ni­­ño during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in CSU's below average forecast. Near to slightly above normal sea surface temperatures will also play a role, considering they have been well above average in recent seasons.

Why do El Ni­­ños typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.

We are now heading into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Starting in August and lasting through October, we climatologically see the bulk of our tropical system development.

Even with a slightly below average season, two major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so stay prepared and stay tuned. WeatherNation will always keep you updated on the latest in the tropics!