Kevin Schneider

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SW PLAINS - Portions of Texas and Oklahoma are at risk of severe thunderstorms for the next three days. Today and tomorrow, the dryline will be the primary forcing mechanism to trigger storms. A dryline is similar to a cold front except a dryline separates dry air masses from moist air masses and is often responsible for triggering severe thunderstorms.<h2>Tuesday Outlook and Timing</h2>On Tuesday, the SPC issued another SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms in similar areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 073540-1776173756020.jpg">In addition to significant hail storms that could produce hail up to 3+" in diameter, Tuesday's risk also has a significant tornado potential for EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. This is because the confidence in discrete supercells is a bit higher for Tuesday's outlook.The timing for Tuesday's storms looks to increase in coverage as we head later into the afternoon and evening hours. You can see our models have higher confidence and coverage in late Tuesday's storms as they move through clustering into the overnight hours across the region.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-14 06-26-45-1776162427465.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Wednesday Outlook and Timing</h2>Going into Wednesday, we have yet another SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms. This time around, however, likely to be triggered by the cold front pushing through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 062747-1776162479890.png">We'll likely stay dry until that cold front moves through at around dinnertime. Much like Tuesday, we could see this storms roll into the night time hours, so having multiple ways to get alerts is definitely the way to go.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-14 06-29-25-1776162675283.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The risk for flooding is fairly minimal in these areas but models do have a few localized heavier downpours through the next couple of days in these areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 063132-1776162706753.png">

Dryline Driven Storms for Texas and Oklahoma

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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UPPER MIDWEST and GREAT LAKES - Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes through Tuesday.What's causing this severe risk? In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a couple of mid-level disturbances are increasing lift and strong winds aloft. This will help storms develop and organize. At the surface, a surface low and slow-moving warm front will help to initialize and organize storms. There are also high levels of CAPE (convective available potential energy) and surface moisture from the Gulf (dewpoints in the 60s) that will help create the risk of large hail.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-14 06-08-36-1776161336069.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As storms evolve throughout the day, the discrete supercells (think more individual storms) will become more clustery and organize into lines of storms. This will switch the threat from a hail and tornado threat into a damaging wind threat with tornadoes still possible.<h2>Tuesday Outlook and Timing</h2>On Tuesday, the SPC issued another ENHANCED risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms in similar areas. Cities including Des Moines, IA, Chicago, IL, and Milwaukee, WI, are included in the enhanced risk. Other large cities such as Green Bay, WI, Detroit, MI, and Kansas City also all need to be on alert for Tuesday's severe risk. The outlook even expands into the northeast, with a mainly damaging winds severe threat present in cities like Albany, NY and Scranton, PA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Web_1-1776175834578.png">For Tuesday's timing, new storms will develop along the warm front into the peak of afternoon heating after wrapping up some morning storms. These storms are forecast to remain discrete for the afternoon before attempting to cluster together as they move more into Michigan and eastward. A lot of these strong storms could hold onto their strength into Tuesday's overnight hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-14 06-14-19-1776161679524.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Wednesday</h2>Another day, another severe weather outlook. With more warm front storms in the forecast, we have another SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Similar to Tuesday's outlook, this one also highlights two hot-spots where severe weather is more likely. The expansive warm front stretches as far east as Pennsylvania, getting them in on the action as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 061559-1776161777117.png">A few of those overnight Tuesday storms could hold their own and re-organize into Wednesday. Once again, the warm front likely going to trigger these storms in small clusters across Ohio Valley and even into the northeast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-14 06-19-07-1776161969395.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms in the same areas, this may lead to an isolated to scattered flooding risk across the Great Lakes region. Be prepared for flooding, especially if you still have some snow on the ground; frozen grounds can take longer to absorb flood waters compared to unfrozen grounds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 062145-1776162120439.png">

Tracey Anthony

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Enhanced Risks

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<h1>Multi-Day Severe Storm Set-Up</h1>We continue to see the busy April pattern from Texas to the Great Lakes. A huge trough will swing through, bringing a severe threat risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. All severe threats will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall will also be embedded in some storms, raising concerns about flooding. Make sure to stay with us for the latest updates and shifts in the forecast.An ENHANCED (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather is in place on Tuesday. The outlook even expands a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk out into the northeast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 072908-1776173358269.jpg">Similarly, on Wednesday, we'll have another outlook where two hot spots for severe weather are highlighted. At this point, however, a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather is issued.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 063457-1776162907110.png">Daytime heating will help to spark up thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Some storms will remain strong into the evening and nighttime hours, so make sure to have multiple ways to get alerts.In addition to severe storm hazards (wind, hail, and tornadoes), heavy rainfall rates are expected to lead to flash flood potential. It doesn't appear to be a high-end flooding threat, but as the forecast draws closer, we will keep you updated!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 073108-1776173482064.jpg">For a deep dive into the north and south sides of this severe threat, visit the following articles on our website! <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/upper-midwest-and-great-lakes-enhanced-risks">North Side</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/dryline-driven-storms-for-texas-and-oklahoma">South Side</a>

Storm Overview: Who All Is At Risk This Week?

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We’re not all that close to the summer solstice, in fact, we’re not even a month removed from the Spring Equinox, but it certainly feels like many of us have skipped spring and jumped straight into summer. A strong ridge of high pressure is dominating the eastern half of the country this week, and it’s doing two key things: heating temperatures up and steering storms farther north.Starting Tuesday, that record heat expands across more of the eastern United States. Over the next several days, multiple cities could challenge or break daily records, with temperatures running more than 20 degrees above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 064226-1776163363181.png">Across the Southeast, temperatures will remain well above normal. Many cities are expected to approach 90 degrees today, Tuesday, and Wednesday, far above the typical April highs in the 70s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 064309-1776163401431.png"><h3>Fire Danger</h3>With this kind of warmth, fire concerns increase. Hot, dry conditions can quickly dry out soils and vegetation, creating more fuel for fires. Through tonight and into tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an elevated fire risk.By Tuesday, the fire outlook expands to include more of Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-14 064340-1776163433559.png">We’ll continue to monitor drought conditions, as ongoing dryness could keep fire danger elevated, even if rain chances remain limited.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-13 121639-1776104208839.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Eastern Heat + Fire Danger

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After a busy start to the week, the weekend doesn't look like it will let up much. Another trough will swing in, replacing another that kept severe chances around all week. This next trough (above) that will drop in looks like it could be a touch stronger even. It's early in the forecast, but let's talk about what we know.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-13 062927-1776083428095.jpg">There looks like there will be just as much unstable air to work with, helping power storms in the afternoon. Because many of the ingredients don't change, just their origin, the severe outlook will look familiar.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-13 063106-1776083498821.jpg">Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is more concerned with Friday from Iowa to Oklahoma. This early on, all modes of severe weather are still on the table, but there's plenty of work to be done concerning the details. Get in the habit of checking back with the forecast if you live in these areas, although that might be already formed given the severe chances preceding all of this.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-13 06-33-49-1776083680273.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>These storms that form on Friday will likely lead us into the start of the weekend, but whether the severe threat will, too, remains to be seen.

Severe Threat Spills into the Weekend

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Spring is in full swing which means it's time to start looking ahead to this year's upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic! Each year, Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Department releases multiple forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, including one of the earliest issued among major forecasters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065207-1775740414924.png"> CSU just released their first forecast for 2026, which is calling for a near normal to slightly below average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The average season in the Atlantic is just slightly higher than this initial prediction, meaning several impactful storms are still possible. As a reminder, even below average seasons can have major impacts depending on where storms form which is impossible to predict months ahead of time.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065246-1775740421912.png">You've probably heard rumblings about the burgeoning El Ni­­ños, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Ni­­ño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in CSU's below average forecast, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065226-1775739587003.png">The confidence in an El Nino developing this summer is quite high, but the remaining question is how strong will the event be? Weak El Ni­­ños typically have a lower impact on the tropics in the Atlantic while strong El Ni­­ños have a more consistent impact. This year's El Ni­­ño is trending toward the strong side, but it's still too early to say for certain.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2042226020179161097" src="https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/2042226020179161097"></div>Why do El Ni­­ños typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 063418-1775740706915.png">Even with a slightly below average season, two major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so stay prepared and stay tuned. WeatherNation will always keep you updated on the latest in the tropics!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065301-1775741404492.png">

CSU Releases First Hurricane Forecast for 2026

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The peak of spring severe weather season is fast approaching and the outlooks are here to prove it! The Storm Prediction Center has outlooks for severe storms through Wednesday of this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-10 100804-1775837299426.png"><h1>Outlooks</h1>The SPC has maintained a SLIGHT risk for severe storms through Monday morning in Texas. This is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather. In Minnesota, there is a MARGINAL risk for severe storms along the surface low.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-12 200100-1776045668479.png"><h1>Forecast</h1>Storms have fired up in west Texas and are expected to continue moving into the I-35 corridor through the morning hours. Models anticipate these storms clustering together as the drag through into the morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/04-12 rsc hrrr-1776034819721.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rainfall &amp; Flood Threat</h1>Heavy downpours are expected with these thunderstorms. Rainfall totals could surpass 3-5" in some areas that see multiple thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-11 043616-1775903842893.png"><h2>MONDAY</h2>A lot of the same question marks move into Monday, with a bimodal severe threat. The area of greatest concern looks to be up around the Great Lakes, where a higher tornado threat resides.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-12 122005-1776018029088.png">

Weekend Closes With More Storms

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The weekly <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/">Drought Monitor</a> was released Thursday morning, as it is every Thursday with data through Tuesday of each week, and it shows some pretty distinct changes in parts of the country. Let's take a look:

<img class="size-full wp-image-125943" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2020/07/07-30-US-Drought-Monitor.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /> The Drought Monitor updated Thursday, July 30. The data in this image is valid through Tuesday, July 28

The national view of the Drought Monitor shows that a majority of the country is on the dry side. Roughly 75% of the Lower 48 is experiencing at least "abnormally dry" conditions, shaded in yellow. That means about one-quarter of the Contiguous U.S. is experiencing average or above-average soil moisture conditions.

Here are some highlights when we compare this week's data to last week's data:
<ul>
 	<li>No location is in Exceptional Drought (the worst ranking on the scale)</li>
 	<li>The West saw drought development in all categories (moderate, severe, and extreme drought)</li>
 	<li>There were many areas which had below-average precipitation during the past week</li>
 	<li>Looking ahead, the West will likely face the toughest conditions</li>
</ul>
<img class="size-full wp-image-125944" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2020/07/07-30-SW-Drought-Monitor.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /> The weekly Drought Monitor for the Southwest U.S. released Thursday, July 30

Some of the biggest weekly changes were seen across the Southwest U.S. where states including Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming experienced worsening drought. This is the time of the year when the monsoon showers and thunderstorms help replenish the water table, but unfortunately the monsoon has been weak in most areas. Take for instance, Arizona:

https://twitter.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1288672083149430784

The National Weather Service office in Phoenix, Arizona has been tracking the number of lightning strikes across the state as a way to monitor the strength of this year's monsoon. So far, it has been a very quiet wet season.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-125947" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2020/07/Monthly-drought-outlook.png" alt="" width="792" height="612" />

The monthly drought outlook, going forward, shows drought continuing for much of the West with further drought development likely for parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Unfortunately in the near term, between July 31 and August 12, the precipitation outlook for the West favors higher chances of drier-than-average conditions. This is attributed to the massive area of heat parked over the West right now, not allowing many thunderstorms to pop up.

Drought Status Updated: How's Your Area?

Dryline Driven Storms for Texas and Oklahoma

SW PLAINS - Portions of Texas and Oklahoma ar

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Enhanced Risks

UPPER MIDWEST and GREAT LAKES - Severe thunde

Storm Overview: Who All Is At Risk This Week?

Multi-Day Severe Storm Set-UpWe continue to s

Eastern Heat + Fire Danger

We’re not all that close to the summer solsti

Severe Threat Spills into the Weekend

After a busy start to the week, the weekend d

CSU Releases First Hurricane Forecast for 2026

Spring is in full swing which means it's time

Weekend Closes With More Storms

The peak of spring severe weather season is f