WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Ready for the first snow of the season? While a few flakes have come down in the usual spots this fall (northern Great Lakes &amp; New England), a solid burst of measurable snow is possible toward the end of the week and into next weekend. There's still a lot of time for big changes - so check back in with us throughout the week.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103411-1794073162585.png">What We Know</h1><p>A big trough will dig down the Eastern U.S. - but the exact placement of the trough and its cold air still need to be worked out. Forecast model ensembles all show a cold low-pressure system, but vary with timing and strength still.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103431-1794073182235.png">A larger trough will help several shortwaves swing through the Eastern half of the country, providing extra lift for heavy rain and snow. The timing and placement of these shortwaves could have a big impact on snow and heavy rain, as they provide an extra burst of energy that could pull Atlantic moisture into the cold air.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103422-1794073182237.png">What We Don't Know</h1><h2>Snow Totals</h2><p>The ECMWF (Euro model) shows some solid snow chances for similar areas highlighted by the WPC (top of page), while the GFS is also showing potential for snowfall. The GFS tends to overestimate snow, as it turns icy conditions into snowfall more than it should, so take this with a grain of salt.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 113631-1794249404145.png"></h2><p>We are still working on narrowing down possibilities of outcomes still, with about 3 viable scenarios still on the table. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 113524-1794249338997.png"></p><ul><li><p>A faster movement of the trough as it sets up could carry it eastward faster. This would severely limit any rain/snow totals. </p></li><li><p>A trough that sinks almost due south, allowing it to dig deeper and pull in more cold air before the moisture leaves. This is the ceiling outcome that could bring a decent snow, even in the lowest elevations</p></li><li><p>Some cross between those two, which would likely limit snowfall to the highest elevations of the Appalachians</p></li></ul><h2>Rain Totals</h2><p>As the trough brings Atlantic moisture into the Northeast, the potential increases for heavy rain and snow. The ECMWF is showing rainfall totals between 1-4 inches for parts of the Northeast, with the heaviest rain from Thursday into Friday. These totals could change significantly with the timing and placement of the lows.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103508-1794074059757.png"><strong>Bottom line:</strong> there is increasing confidence an impactful cold system will cruise East toward the end of next week, but details remain fuzzy. We'll keep you updated with changes and a fine-tuned forecast as the event draws near. Sometimes models can completely bust in the 5-10 day window, so don't run to get bread and milk just yet.</p>

Kevin Schneider

East Coast Snow? What We Know About the Late Week System

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<p>Hurricane season isn’t over yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring twp areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, and the newest tropical storm in the Central Pacific.</p><h2><strong>Pacific: Pena Continues East in the Pacific</strong></h2><p>Tropical Storm Pena formed on Friday Southeast of Hawaii. This is the fifth named storm in the Central Pacific Basin this season, which beats the previous record for named systems in a season (3). This storm will stay south of Hawaii, with limited impacts to the island chain. Increased winds and waves are expected through the weekend, but that should be it for impacts.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/WEB 9-1794235321994.png"></p><h2><strong>Atlantic: Staying Quiet</strong></h2><p>Not much is happening in the Atlantic Basin. What was Invest 94-L is no longer being monitored for tropical development. The Atlantic hurricane season ends at the end of the month.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 114435-1794249926655.png"></p><p>Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30. For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.</p><p>WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.</p>

Tropics Update: Pena Spinning in the Pacific

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Tracey Anthony

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<p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2119564015060025572" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2119564015060025572"></div><p>A strong trough of low pressure moving through Mexico will draw abundant Gulf moisture into parts of Texas through Monday, leading to heavy downpours that will likely lead to flash flooding. Flood alerts remain in place through Monday. (above)</p><p>On Sunday, we had several rainfall records fall.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/WEB 1-1794231174728.png"></p><h2>TIMING:</h2><p>Rounds of rain will continue to funnel through portions of Texas, with the heaviest rain on Monday. By Tuesday, we start to see things taper off.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/texasss-1794181562452.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rain &amp; Flood Potential</h1><p>Forecast models are showing potential high-end rainfall totals, which would mean higher impacts if they are correct. The Baron Model is likely overdoing how widespread the heavy rain will be; however, bullseyes of 9-12" of rain (like the model shows in southern Texas) can't be ruled out.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042028-1794050580547.png"></p><p>The ECMWF (Euro) model also shows higher- end potential for the rainfall, with 6-10" of accumulation south of San Antonio. Prepare for significant flash flooding if you live or plan to travel to these areas, just in case the heaviest rain falls near you.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042015-1794050580548.png"></p><p>The WPC has issued multiple excessive rain (flood) outlooks through Monday, with Sunday's overnight outlook a level 2 (slight) risk. A slight risk indicates scattered flash flooding is expected, with a significant flood event possible. This outlook could be upgraded.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/texassf ;ppddd-1794181485474.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p></p><p>The time is now to prepare for flooding! Keep important documents in areas that will remain dry during a flood on your property, clear gutters and drainage areas, and make sure you're aware of the status of your flood insurance.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042235-1794050590106.png"></p>

Texas Flood Threat To Start The Week

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<p>The calendar has now turned to the month of November, and that means the beginning of the wet season for cities like Seattle and Portland. An atmospheric river setup is likely for the West Coast for the next several days. So for a refresher, what is an atmospheric river? An atmospheric river is a large plume of moisture being transported from deep tropical Pacific moisture northward to the West Coast.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/BARON 5-1793935449125.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Over the next few days, several lows forming near Alaska are sliding south and slamming into SW Canada and NW Washington State. Through Monday, the Olympia Peninsula and Northern Washington are expected to see rainfall totals between 3-6 inches. The Portland Metro will see up to an inch, with most of the moisture missing them to the north. The Cascades will see some heavier snow this weekend too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 075052-1794235892778.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-09 075205-1794235940470.png"></p><h1>LONG TERM WEST</h1><p>Long-range models are hinting at some of these Pacific waves continuing to drive into California and for the Four Corners next week. Heavy rain, snow, and strong winds could be a possibility as we move into the middle of November.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/1-1794020568559.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2-1794020590072.png"></p><p>This is a developing story, and we will be here following the latest for you on WeatherNation!</p>

Atmospheric Rivers Slam the West

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Brittany Lockley

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<p>The same system that has produced unsettled weather across much of the country is still impacting the East Coast, bringing a surge of moisture into New England. The front will be exiting the Northeast Saturday morning. However, it brought rainfall totals over 6 inches in Massachusetts. The heaviest rain will be moving out, but an area of low pressure will still bring chilly rain to the Northeast into Sunday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113420-1794076472352.png"></p><p>The heaviest rainfall, according to our in-house forecast models, remains over portions of CT, RI, and MA. There could also be some snow chances with the colder air getting wrapped up into the system.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113507-1794076517572.png"></p><p>For more on your Eastern Regional Forecast, tune in to WeatherNation :10 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Heavy Rain Brings Flooding Concerns to Northeast as Storm System Moves East

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Residences along the Ocoee (TN) and Toccoa (GA) River have had to leave their homes early Thursday morning as heavy caused catastrophic flooding overnight into the morning hours. Up to 10 inches of rain fell in parts of Northern Georgia Wednesday evening, leading to a surge of water in the Ocoee, hitting a record height of over 18 feet.<br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 073059-1793889084159.png">Residents along the river are being evacuated and the red cross has opened a shelter. The flooding will likely continue to shift down stream with major impacts.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 073047-1793889084161.png">More than 11 inches of rain fell in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Northern Georgia late Wednesday into early Thursday, flooding several areas before running off into the Toccoa/Ocoee.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 074333-1793889818485.png"></p><p></p>

Flash Flood Emergency For Parts of Georgia and Tennessee

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<p>Florida has seen heavy rainfall and lots of flooding over the last few days. In fact, Melbourne, FL saw its wettest day EVER on record with 11.51" on Monday. Watch the storms train over many of the same areas Monday morning:</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 07-33-35-1793720142845.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Monday beat out the old record of 10.23" in 2017 with Irma making landfall! We will see things taper off, but there will still be some localized areas of heavy rainfall for Tuesday. Any area that saw the catastrophic flooding Monday will be very sensitive to any additional rain today.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117632897909735452" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117632897909735452?a=EuxY1xZfhVig7RAXyus&amp;s=20"></div><p>In total, many parts of Florida have seen over 20" of rain since Sunday. Picking this up in 48-72 hours time was the main reason for the heavy flooding we've been seeing.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-04 062641-1793791669426.png"></p><p>Overall, we've already seen totals well over that. In fact, in Brevard County, a flash flood emergency was issued on Monday morning (since has expired). These exceedingly rare advisories are especially dangerous. If one is ever issued in your area, you need to seek higher ground immediately.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 104349-1793634469029.png">Thankfully, coverage is likely to be more isolated across most of Florida through tonight.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/11041-1793818717680.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Check in with us on WeatherNation at :10 past the hour for your full eastern U.S. breakdown!</p>

Torrential Downpours Batter the Sunshine State

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As major <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/florence-a-hurricane-again-east-coast-impacts-increasingly-likely/">Hurricane Florence</a> barrels toward the United States, residents along the Southeast coast need to be prepared for the worst (and hope for the best).  Emergency plans should already be in place; know what to do in the event of a life-threatening situation.  State and local governments have already begun to prepare.  Over the weekend, the governors of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina declared States of Emergency.  On Monday afternoon, the governor of Maryland also declared a State of Emergency.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-96834 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/SOE-728x408.jpg" alt="Evacuations Underway in Advance of Florence" width="728" height="408" />

Mandatory evacuations were posted for several areas on Monday.  The Outer Banks of North Carolina, in particular, are very susceptible to hurricanes.  The threats of damaging wind, storm surge, and flooding prompted Dare County to issue evacuation orders for residents and tourists.

https://twitter.com/DareCountyEM/status/1039156535983845376

In nearby Hyde County, officials have ordered a mandatory evacuation for tourists visiting Okracoke Island.

https://twitter.com/HydeNC/status/1039198482781880322

By Tuesday, Governor Roy Cooper notified North Carolina residents of mandatory and voluntary evacuations throughout the coastal counties and inlet areas.  For more information regarding these evacuation areas, visit the <a href="https://www.ncdps.gov/florence">North Carolina Department of Public Safety website</a>.

In neighboring South Carolina, Governor Henry McMaster ordered an evacuation of South Carolina's hurricane zones in coastal counties on Monday afternoon.  On Tuesday, the evacuation order for the southern most counties---Jasper, Beaufort, and Colleton (except Edisto Beach)---was lifted.  More information can be found at the <a href="https://scemd.org/">South Carolina Emergency Management Division website</a>.

https://twitter.com/SCEMD/status/1039226727459893248

On Monday evening, residents of Virginia were advised by Governor Ralph Northam that anyone living in Zone A would need to evacuate.  <a href="https://vdemgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5797524b9a58440c8dbc06816e060492">Click here to view Virginia's evacuation zone map</a>.

https://twitter.com/VDEM/status/1039274333095579648

Evacuation orders and emergency notifications in other areas will be likely throughout the week.  Follow <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/video/">WeatherNation</a> on air and online (<a href="http://www.twitter.com/WeatherNation">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/WeatherNation">Facebook)</a> for the latest information regarding Hurricane Florence.

- <a href="http://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistJoeAstolfi">Meteorologist Joe Astolfi</a>