[Photo by Bruno Kelzer on Unsplash
Last week, the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their February outlook. Warmer than average temperatures are expected across most of the West, with below normal readings from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. Drier than average conditions are expected in the Southwest and Tennessee Valley, with wetter than normal weather in the High Plains.
The main forecast influences were global pattern trends and long range model forecasts. An extensively discussed El Nino temperature pattern is underway
in the Pacific Ocean, but the atmosphere has been slow to respond. Observed sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal as expected, with computer models expecting this trend to continue. But the overall global pattern resembles neutral conditions.
Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, the CPC still indicates
a 65 percent chance for El Nino
from now through Spring.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels