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<div>Lucy is originally from the Boston area but has spent the last four years forecasting and living in Colorado! She stayed in the northeast for her education, graduating Summa Cum Laude from SUNY Oswego with a B.S. in Meteorology. Just a few days after graduation, she made the cross country move to Colorado Springs, CO to begin her career at KKTV, the CBS affiliate. Lucy has covered historic blizzards, tornadoes, windstorms, the largest wildfires in Colorado state history and dust storms ... they truly "get it all" in Colorado! Lucy is excited to forecast on a national level and continue her passion of explaining the science behind the weather!</div>
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Lucy Bergemann

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A surface trough will be the focus for showers and storms today and tonight for the Midwest including some big cities like Chicago and Indianapolis. A few isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out for parts of Illinois and Indiana. Today's set-up will favor more of a hail and wind there, but some rotation will be possible also (above). The severe threat carries into Wednesday too with similar threats.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/severe outlook -1695754034772.jpg">The daytime heating should be a player in the severe threat today. Once we reach the peak heating in the afternoon, storms should be turning severe and although the threat is isolated for severe, storms will be widespread. A pretty nasty line of storms looks possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially through southern Kentucky and Tennessee. We will have to watch model guidance for this possibility, especially as storms form on Wednesday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/2023-09-26 07-36-23-1695735535369.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This same system will keep moving East and on Wednesday severe storms should build around the Ohio River Valley. The main risk with this set-up will be damaging winds and large hail and storms are likely late in the day into early Thursday morning. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/spc wednesday-1695754044000.jpg">For more on this top weather headline be sure to join us live for the latest details. And if you're starting to see the foliage turn in these spots be sure to tag us on X, Facebook, and Instagram @weathernation for a chance for your weather to be shared on national television!

Tornado Threat for Chicago Today

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Over the next few days, the State of Florida will be very active with scattered storms and heavy rain. Some parts of the Sunshine State could see over 5" of rain in the next 2 days. The severe risk will be on the lower end, but never the less showers and storms will bring big downpours, low visibility and water buildup on the roads and interstates.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/spc today-1695758261807.jpg">Strong southerly flow is really pumping in the moisture across Florida and this set-up is ideal for a heavy rain event. Not everyone in Florida will see huge rainfall numbers, but there are many parts that are under the risk for flooding. This model shows the consistent showers and storms moving across Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/2023-09-26 13-54-54-1695758137172.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Try not to curse the rain too much - we do need the moisture especially on the West Coast where we have extreme drought conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/drought-1695733210667.jpg">More updates are on the way on-air and online throughout the day.

Heavy Rain for Florida the Next Few Days

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The southern tier of the country has been no stranger to a hot and dry summer, with extreme and exceptional drought conditions spreading from Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi. The drought aided in large fires in <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/high-fire-danger-extreme-heat-in-texas">Texas and Louisiana </a>this summer and now is impacting low water levels on the Mississippi River. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/drought-1695757297057.jpg">Now as drought conditions persist, a new issue is impacting southern Louisiana, the saltwater intrusion. Because the mouth of the Mississippi river lies below sea-level is it normal for saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to run back into the Mississippi. However, under normal conditions there is enough river flow coming downstream to combat serious salt-water progression north into the river. This year due to the drought and low water levels the saltwater is moving upriver, threatening water treatment plants for suburbs of New Orleans. This has prompted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer to increase an underwater sill to reduce the impact of the saltwater intrusion. According to the agency, "“As a result of continued falling conditions, this existing sill was overtopped and the toe of the saltwater wedge has reached River Mile 69, near the community of Jesuit Bend,” said Col. Cullen Jones, USACE New Orleans District commander. “Our modeling indicates that by augmenting the existing sill, we can support state and local preparedness and response efforts by delaying further upriver progression of the salt water by approximately 10 to 15 days.”" Freshwater is also being transported in, according to USACE, "during previous low-water events, such as 1988 and 2012, barging was used to transport fresh water to treatment facilities downriver of the saltwater toe." This ensures that the treatment facilities aren't negatively impacted by processing saltwater instead of the normal fresh water, which could lead to corrosion or deterioration of the plants. Part of the reason is that upstream precipitation also isn't coming through the Ohio River valley and mid-Mississippi River valley. In fact, we are below flood stage for the Mississippi River at Memphis. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/MS RIVER-1695757284950.jpg">With no rainfall in sight, the saltwater intrusion and drought conditions will worsen further.

Drought threatening Drinking Water along the Mississippi River

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We are now down to one tropical wave and one named storm in the Atlantic: Philippe (pronounced: fee - LEEP). Tropical Storm Philippe is moving west at 12 mph and is forecast to maintain its strength as a tropical storm over open waters passing north of the Leeward and Windward islands. The extended forecast shows the likelihood of the remnants of Philippe sitting north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, which could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the islands. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/phillipe-1695737251447.jpg">We are also watching an area of low pressure between the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern Caribbean. Gradual development is likely and we could see a tropical depression form over the next few days. This wave is moving west - northwest and there is model consensus that it will remain over the open waters of the Atlantic. Since the National Hurricane Center is investigating this wave, spaghetti plots have been released on this potential storm. Invest 91L is the identifier of this system.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/91L-1695737249458.jpg">We have about 30% of the Atlantic hurricane season left. The rest of September and October can be busy months, tropically speaking because of warm sea surface temperatures this time of the season.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/09-25_atl-1695696450973.jpg">

Tropics: Philippe in the Atlantic, Another Wave to Watch

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Huge hail fell in Texas on Sunday night, hitting Round Rock, a suburb on the north side of Austin. Baseball and golf ball sized hail destroyed car windows and buildings (above). This comes after a After a very hot, dry last few months, Texas is finally getting rain, and severe storms as a front dips south. Baseball-sized hail fell in Round Rock (just north of Austin) Sunday evening and destroyed cars (above)! Check out the tornado-warned storm that moved through Commerce, Texas late Sunday afternoon/evening (below).<blockquote><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/VO_092423_RSC_COMMERCE, TX_COOL TIME LAPSE APPROACHING THE ROTATING TORNADO WARNED STORM_TW_@ONLYNADERS_DW_E092423-1695610708228.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video></blockquote>While a few severe storms produced quarter size hail and winds up to 60 mph Monday, it was a much less stormy day compared to Sunday. The tail end of the front will also fire up storms on Tuesday, especially along the higher terrain of New Mexico. Isolated storms will be capable of quarter-size hail and damaging winds, with heavy rain a hazard in all storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/2023-09-26 08-54-54-1695740252306.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Be sure to move any valuable property to safety before the storms arrive, because some thunderstorms may bring flooding rain and damaging wind and/or hail. Have multiple ways to get weather warnings and know where to go in the event of severe weather!

After Baseball Hail in Texas Destroys Cars, Threat Shifts West

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Right now much of the fall foliage is seen in the Rockies where cooler air is starting to make an influence. We want to avoid a quick freeze though, as that could cause the leaves to wilt and die before they reach their true potential! Colors should start to explode in the coming days across Colorado when the Aspens turn. In addition, cooler air moving into the Northwest should create further color across the Cascades!Have the leaves started changing where you live? We are now into Meteorological Fall, with the Autumnal Equinox just around the corner. We will continue to notice the changing leaves in the coming weeks.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/PKG_092920_TRT 1.52_WHEN LEAVES CHANGE_ROB BRADLEY_CM_E092920-1694870877324.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>But why and how do leaves change color? It is due to Chlorophyll in the leaves decaying into the cooler weather of the season. We've still been quite warm so the changeover has been slow for many.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/why they change-1694871127699.jpg">In fact, the majority of the country (outside of mountains over 8k feet) hasn't dropped below freezing or close to it yet this fall - we are roughly two weeks behind schedule for the Rockies, Bitterroots, and Cascades which could be contributing to the slow to develop colors. The colder air is arriving though, which should speed up the color changes.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1704911375175393467" src="https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1704911375175393467"></div>Have fall foliage photos to share? Tag us on social media @weathernation

Fall Colors in Full Effect for the Rockies

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WEST COAST: An early-season atmospheric river has been bringing in rainy days to the west coast of Washington, Oregon, and California. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/VO_0925-2623_PACIFIC OCEAN_ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SWIRLING OUT IN THE PACIFIC_TW_@CIRA_CSU_DO_E092623-1695735940086.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>In fact, on the atmospheric river scale, this event is forecast to become an AR4. These forecasts are released by the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/">Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes</a> from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. The AR Scale can be complicated to understand, but the bottom line is that it is based on the duration of the event and the amount of water these systems hold.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/09-25_ar scale-1695668238161.jpg">For inland communities this will be on the order of an AR1-2. The scale is used to determine the impact from the water of rain. We've already seen rainfall totals on the order of 5"+ with more on the way into the middle of the week. Due to the drought conditions in the PNW, we anticipate minimal river or creek flooding as the waterways are relatively low and can handle in the influx of moisture. Cooler air with the next front will even produce some high elevation snowfall!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/09-25_west acc 18z-1695688775809.jpg"> Additional pushes of moisture coming onshore from the Pacific will bring more rounds of rain into mid-week. Tuesday's heavy rain risk is primarily into Washington and Oregon, while California doesn't get much rain until later in the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/9-25 RNW rain-1695696468618.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Isolated areas of flooding are possible in spots that are prone to flood, and near burn scars from previous fires. Never drive over flooded roadways!

Atmospheric River for Coastal Washington, Oregon & California

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During the late winter and early spring seasons, outdoor activity enthusiasts should begin to pay close attention to their local weather forecasts.  This is especially true if you enjoy activities on the ice, such as fishing or skating.  Warmer temperatures and whipping winds begin to impact ice coverage and stability on ponds, lakes, seas, and oceans this time of year.

The Great Lakes region is no stranger to the phenomenon known as an ice floe.  Simply put, an ice floe is a detached sheet of ice that can float away.  More than 100 people were stranded on an ice floe in Lake Erie off the coast of Ohio on Saturday, March 9, 2019.  Local officials in Ottawa County and the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/USCGSectorDetroit/posts/1250911535076077">U.S. Coast Guard</a> had to assist in rescuing many of these people, <a href="https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Authorities-work-to-rescue-several-people-off-of-Catawba-Island-State-Park-506923701.html">according to WeatherNation affiliate WTVG-TV</a> in Toledo, Ohio.

For more information on the story and to explain how ice floes work, WeatherNation meteorologist <a href="http://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistJoeAstolfi">Joe Astolfi</a> has a closer look.

https://youtu.be/9Ri4NphqXbw

The best advice is to be aware of your surroundings at all times, pay close attention to current weather conditions, and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/cle/GreatLakesIce_text">know the forecast</a>.

Find your local forecast <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/video">HERE</a>.

Ice Floe Strands 150 People on Lake Erie

Tornado Threat for Chicago Today

A surface trough will be the focus for shower

Heavy Rain for Florida the Next Few Days

Over the next few days, the State of Florida

Drought threatening Drinking Water along the Mississippi River

The southern tier of the country has been no

Tropics: Philippe in the Atlantic, Another Wave to Watch

We are now down to one tropical wave and one

After Baseball Hail in Texas Destroys Cars, Threat Shifts West

Huge hail fell in Texas on Sunday night, hitt

Fall Colors in Full Effect for the Rockies

Right now much of the fall foliage is seen in

Atmospheric River for Coastal Washington, Oregon & California

WEST COAST: An early-season atmospheric river