Adrian Hernandez

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The desert southwest has had it's fair share of rainy days these last few weeks. However, things are expected to ramp up considerably throughout this week, as an upper-level setup is forecast to ramp up tropical moisture into the region.With this in mind, the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for almost the entire state of New Mexico. These advisories stick around through Wednesday, but we wouldn't be surprise if they're extended.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 095446-1790085834572.png">As for timing, the coverage will likely be quite widespread through Tuesday and Wednesday. Into late week, however, the coverage remains on the higher side, and we can continue to see an active desert southwest as late as Friday!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 09-56-36-1790085475113.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is rich, tropical moisture inundating these areas. We're expecting heavy totals and high rainfall rates. Because of this, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), has issued a MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding in areas of New Mexico and Texas for today and tomorrow. This means that catastrophic flash flooding is POSSIBLE in the dark green shaded area.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 10-00-12-1790085625855.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As for totals, some spots can see up to 7" of rain by the time Saturday rolls around. That's a lot to pick up anywhere in the country, but especially dangerous in the desert southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 100052-1790085708624.png">Going forward, it's very important to know the difference between a flash flood warning and a flash flood emergency. Doing so will get you better prepared for flood events.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 100158-1790085766480.png">Make sure to keep alerts on through this week, and have multiple ways to get them. Also, stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest. We'll have your full western U.S. breakdown and :50 past the hour.

Major Flooding Possible in the Desert Southwest This Week

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Kevin Schneider

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The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Right now, Hurricane Polo is churning southwest of Mexico (above). Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. In fact, there is now a new record for the year since there has not been a hurricane formation. This is the first time in 60 years the Atlantic Basin has not seen a hurricane since the satellite era in 1966.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074149-1790084525643.png">Pacific Basin</h1>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with some impacts to land possible this week. Odalys formed Sunday morning, and there is now Hurricane Polo to the south of Mexico. There are two other areas of medium and high chance for tropical development in the next week ahead.<h3>Polo</h3>Hurricane Polo became yet another category 5 hurricane Tuesday morning after undergoing extremely rapid intensification. Shortly after formation late Sunday night, it added 115 mph to its sustained wind speed by Tuesday morning. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074129-1790084646568.png">Even though Polo is a monster lurking off the coast, direct impacts will likely not be felt, with just a slim chance that even the tropical storm force winds reach onshore. However, periodic heavy rain and angry seas will affect the southern Mexican beaches over the next few days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 074320-1790084768473.png"><h3>Odalys</h3>This cyclone has struggled to strengthen much since its formation. That will be a theme of its lifespan, as it ultimately succumbs to a stronger cyclone this weekend in Polo. Watch how the European model has this all playing out into next week...<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 07-49-22-1790084993608.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>Tropical Storm Fay will slowly drift in the open Atlantic before turning back to the southwest and moving away from the Azores. This system won't directly affect landmasses but could send some waves to the Azores or Canary Islands in the coming days. There is a new area of low potential for tropical development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 190457-1790039103904.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075045-1790085064967.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifying in the Pacific

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Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a strengthening offshore low in the northeast late in the week. A setup we're all too familiar with. Models are showing some slight agreement on the track, but shifting a tad into late week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 09-41-05-1790084484267.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Regardless of it's track, coastal cities and states are slightly more at risk for heavy rain. Thus, a 3-7 day hazards outlook has been issued for cities along the I-95 corridor from Massachusetts down to North Carolina!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 094233-1790084572595.png">With regard to its strengthening, sea-surface temperatures that far north are still running on the warmer side.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 103639-1790001420895.png">With these kinds of setups, gusty winds are of utmost concern. We could see potential 40 mph gusts or higher along the coastline through the end of the week!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 09-43-18-1790084617758.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals are also expected to be higher along the coast as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 094353-1790084686844.png">We spoke to Eric Hoeflich, Meteorologist, NWS Mt. Holly. Here are some of the impacts we are currently expecting.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/SOT_TRT_1.00_LARGE COASTAL IMPACTS AND GIANT WAVES_NWS MT. HOLLY_ERIC HOEFLICH_BD_E092126-1790039480469.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There's still a way to go in the forecast. Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest!

Coastal Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

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<h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Record rainfall fell this weekend across the Ohio River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. On Monday, Ohio tacked on almost 4 more inches in spots. More rainfall is on the way, continuing the risk of flooding. Because of this risk, flood watches remain in place over the next few days across OH, PA, and WV for additional rainfall.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075632-1790085405907.png">Storms &amp; Timing</h2>A frontal boundary will continue to linger, bringing more rain, with heavy rain embedded in some of the storms that develop. Rounds of rain will continue to develop through Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 07-58-32-1790085533334.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL TOTALS</h2>While heavy rain will be possible in some spots the next few days, at least the bulls eye is moving. The heftiest totals look to come down in Virginia down to parts of the Carolinas through Wednesday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075700-1790085436091.png">

More Flooding Concerns Out East

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT</h1>Severe storms developed Monday afternoon and evening as a surface cold front combined with instability. More storms will redevelop along this boundary this afternoon, capable of damaging winds and some small hail again.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075949-1790085612308.png"><h1>TIMING</h1>As a front continues to linger more storms will continue. Things will taper off overnight, but more storms will pick up again on Wednesday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-22 08-02-33-1790085774602.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Raleigh will potentially see some of the heaviest rainfall, with multiple inches possible. That could add a flooding concern onto a damaging wind threat today.

Severe Threat Continues In The Southeast

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Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"><h1></h1><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1>Overnight, we have a severe threat in place for portions of CO, KS and OK. Storms fired up today, bringing damaging winds and hail. Any storms that stick around into the overnight hours can see damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/sssa-1789954285946.png">A few storms will linger in the overnight hours, with some heavy rain possible embedded in the storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnightss-1789954388198.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

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It's been a long, hot summer. That might be an understatement, actually, as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608"> the U.S. experienced it's hottest summer on record</a>! Areas like the Southwest were especially warm, but even through September the South and Southeast have been scorching! Just in time for fall, a cold front will be cutting across the country to start the week, dropping highs from the 90s to the 60s in some areas! While it won't be completely dry behind the front, many people will feel a significant cool down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073324-1789911238058.png">Unfortunately, for folks along the Gulf Coast and down into Florida, this front won't be strong enough to reach that far south, but for areas like Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Virginia, this will usher in a major change!Highs will drop 20-30 degrees in many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, including Oklahoma City and Washington D.C.!<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073414-1789911266216.png">Autumnal Equinox</h1>Fall begins on Tuesday, at 8:04 pm ET, which is the exact time the suns rays cross over the equator the southern hemisphere begins to lean more toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093856-1789832359623.png">Both the vernal and autumnal equinox (Latin for equal night) marks the point of the year when the earth gets hit equally by the sun in both hemispheres. This is different from the winter and summer solstice, when the hemispheres reach their point of maximum inclination toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093913-1789832367580.png">

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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As NOAA, the National Oceanic &amp; Atmospheric Administration, published their new updated 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, we can expect more named storms and hurricanes this year in the Atlantic Ocean.  Forecasters say that the lack of El Nino, or warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, has been announced and that this will play a role in more favorable conditions for tropical development.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111165" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/seasonal_outlook.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

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https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1159481281283072003

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These are a few of the topics that NOAA has reported for the possible increased activities in the Atlantic Basin.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111164" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/info.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

&nbsp;

On Thursday, NOAA announced the ENSO phase has officially transitioned from El Nino, to an ENSO neutral phase. ENSO indicates the presence of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific, which actually *can* influence how tropical Atlantic activity develops.  Meteorologist Chris Bianchi explains how the, now, lack of El Nino influenced NOAA hurricane season outlook change.

https://youtu.be/K1b86GwgYec

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Regardless of the outlook, NOAA stresses that these forecasts do not suggest landfall or impacts. Those details are only possible to forecast once a storm has developed, and that everyone should know their risks, and prepare in advance of an approaching storm. Dr Gerry Bell with NOAA stressed this importance in a press conference Thursday morning.

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1159489318471135238

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The forecast number of storms in the outlook include the 2 named storms that have already formed in the Atlantic...  Andrea and Barry.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-111177 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/so-far-andrea.jpg" alt="" width="1897" height="1061" /> <img class="alignnone wp-image-111178 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/so-far-barry.jpg" alt="" width="1861" height="1064" />

&nbsp;

As we continue to inch closer to the peak of tropical season, stay tuned to WeatherNation for all the latest developments.

Visit our stories on hurricane preparedness and safety from <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-prep-week-2019/">WeatherNation's hurricane preparedness week in May. </a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bY8xDQsqtk&amp;t=1s

Increased Chances for Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Major Flooding Possible in the Desert Southwest This Week

The desert southwest has had it's fair share

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifying in the Pacific

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

Coastal Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a stre

More Flooding Concerns Out East

WHAT TO EXPECTRecord rainfall fell this weeke

Severe Threat Continues In The Southeast

WHAT TO EXPECTSevere storms developed Monday

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

Severe storms and heavy rain have been target

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

It's been a long, hot summer. That might be a