Tracey Anthony

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<p>Fall may be getting closer on the calendar, but summer is showing little sign of letting go across the South Central U.S. and Deep South.  A persistent upper-level ridge is keeping temperatures well above normal from Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, with another stretch of dangerous heat expected this week. Widespread Heat Advisories are in place for heat index values around <strong>105° to 110°F</strong>!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061724-1789393580313.png"></p><p>For Dallas, TX, we are well on our way to setting potential records for how warm &amp; dry it's been. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061922-1789393526091.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062111-1789393931740.png"></p><p>The abnormal warmth is expected to continue during the first half of the week, with afternoon highs reaching the 90s and, in some areas, the lower 100s. The combination of heat and ongoing dry conditions will also maintain an elevated fire-weather concern across parts of the region, especially where recent fires have broken out. </p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098909529257673021" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2098909529257673021"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062205-1789394028575.png"></p><p></p>

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

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Adrian Hernandez

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<p>It's no secret that the Midwest has been the spot to watch for severe weather. However, when severe weather strikes, it's important to never sleep on that flooding threat. Let's get into some of those details</p><h1>OUTLOOK &amp; ALERTS</h1><p>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), has issued a MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding. This is the second highest risk they can issue. This means that the potential for catastrophic flooding is on the table. Major cities like Des Moines, IA are in the bullseye for that threat today.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 074203-1789393595334.png"></p><p>It's no surprise that we'll also have flash flood watches in place for cities along I-35 in the Iowa. These will stick around until Tuesday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 074701-1789393693299.png"></p><h1>TIMING</h1><p>The forecast stays active for the Midwest through Wednesday. The front that will trigger these storms on Monday is expected to stall out into Tuesday, only to get replaced by another system come Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-14 07-50-09-1789393890050.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>TOTALS</h1><p>So let's talk turkey. After looking at both our in-house Baron model, and the model from the WPC, they both agree on a defined bullseye in the central Iowa region. It also shows that over the next 5 days, the Midwest remains active. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 075210-1789394005852.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 075224-1789394005851.png"></p><p>Tune into WeatherNation for your full Central U.S. breakdown at :30 past the hour!</p>

Rounds of Storms Increase the Flood Threat in the Midwest

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Kevin Schneider

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<p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa.</span></p><h1>Current Activity: Pacific</h1><p>Norbert formed last week several hundred miles south of the Baja Peninsula . Norbert will continue to push west. It does look like it will diminish in intensity before reaching the Hawaiian Islands. Sunday, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E developed in the Pacific. As of now, there are no major impacts expected to land. It looks to briefly intensify to a tropical storm before quickly downgrading again to a Tropical Depression by Tuesday. The name to listen out for this storm will be <strong>Odalys.</strong></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 034354-1789379079011.png"></p><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1><p>There is an area being monitored in the Atlantic Basin for a low chance of tropical development. Right now, no deterministic models love this area, but plenty of AI models seem to. Worth watching, but again, not threatening unless you're going to Bermuda. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 033943-1789379088074.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063422-1789216528455.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-13 192918-1789349363728.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Power Restoration Progresses in Kauai, Norbert & TD-E Track West

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT</h1><p>Things will be active across the plains, multiple systems will move through, bringing strong to severe storms, heavy rain, and cool temperatues! There will be daily storm chances to start your week.</p><h1>MONDAY</h1><p>Strong storms will be possible on Monday. A slight risk (above) of severe weather highlights the cities of Des Moines and Omaha.</p><p></p><p>In this outlook, significant severe weather is possible for all threats. This includes 75+ mph wind gusts or EVEN an EF2+ tornado. It's very important to have multiple ways to get those alerts on Monday. However, this is all assuming things come together like models have it.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 073912-1789393169902.png">Early morning storms should give way to destabilization this afternoon. However, we've seen plenty of examples of this not materializing fully, limiting severe potential in the later hours.</p><p>Tuesday, another severe threat stretches all the way from Chicago down through Kansas. Damaging winds and hail will be the main concern on Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 041445-1789380904026.png"></p><h1>TIMING</h1><p>Storms will continue to ride along multiple systems that are moving through. Not only can we see severe weather hazards, but flooding will be a big concern with these storms as well. Spots like Iowa will see round after round of rain.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-14 04-13-52-1789380853713.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Stay with WeatherNation TV for the latest forecast, severe weather alerts and updates throughout the weekend.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p>

Active Pattern Takes Shape Across the Plains

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. <br><br>For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div><h1>Current &amp; Mid-Range Outlooks</h1><p>Signs point to low activity in the Atlantic persisting for the foreseeable future. Record-breaking wind shear continues to tear up tropical waves that are able to wiggle between rounds of Saharan dust. We've got one wave out there to track. Signs point to low development but could ramp up this week, potentially.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 033943-1789378798181.png"></p><p>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 073312-1789392812595.png"></p><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1><p>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño conitnues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 125101-1789066389882.png"></p><p>El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png"></p>

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT </h1><p>Record rainfall has fallen across the Northeast. Bridgeport, CT, saw a daily rainfall record of 4.25" on Sunday! Multiple cities saw rainfall totals of 3-4 inches these past few days. Overnight, a few storms will be possible as the cold front moves through, but things will continue to taper off into the overnight hours. </p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-13 072247-1789305785489.png">GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS</h1><p>As a cold front works through, there is a general risk for thunderstorms overnight. This was downgraded by the SPC, as earlier on Sunday there was a severe threat. Now overnight, you can see a few storms and isolated heavy downpours. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/ne overngith-1789348423494.png"></p><h1>OVERNIGHT </h1><p>As the frontal boundary moves through, there will be a few storms developing along it. Expect dry conditions for your morning commute. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/cold front overngiht-1789348490359.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>For more on your eastern regional forecast tune in at :10 past the hour. </p>

Storms Winding Down Across Northeast

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<p>Temperatures not only broke records on Wednesday but the heat index for some Southern California cities hit near 120° (above). </p><p>While many do not associate tropical storms and hurricanes with the Desert Southwest, it's not unusual to see remnant moisture from these systems pulled into the region several times a year from decaying systems in the Eastern Pacific. The leftover moisture from <strong>Marie </strong>that streamed into the area over the holiday weekend is still lingering. Rainfall totals from Marie brought 2" in some locations. This also significantly increased the high surf and rip currents over the weekend holiday.  Beach erosion and coastal impacts have been significant! </p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2097052283859070982" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2097052283859070982"></div><p>The higher moisture is also impacting the heat across the region. Dew point temperatures have been in the 60s and 70s. Heat Alerts remain active through Thursday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190346-1789002230793.png">Temperatures across this area are running 10-20° above average for Thursday, before more seasonable temperatures for Friday. Near 90 is expected for San Diego! When the humidity is factored in, temperatures could feel nearly 10 degrees warmer, and today that humidity is lingering. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190400-1789002244390.png">Below are just a few of the records that broke in Southern California on Wednesday. Temperatures will start to reach near normal again for many by the weekend.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190417-1789002291052.png">Had plans to hit the beach and beat the heat? Might not be the best idea to head into the water. Beach hazards statements have been issued for coastal California. Mainly, large waves and dangerous rip currents will be the threats to watch out for. Some of these alerts will last through the rest of the work week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190510-1789002316119.png">If you are going to the beaches, swim near a lifeguard! This is true even for more experienced swimmers.</p><p>If you ever find yourself caught in a rip current:</p><ol><li><p>Don't panic. If you panic and try to swim back to shore against the current, you will exhaust your energy.</p></li><li><p>Swim <em>parallel</em><strong><em> </em></strong>to the coastline. Once you're out of the grip of the rip you'll be able to move towards the shoreline.</p></li><li><p>If swimming parallel is too difficult. Float on your back and try to signal for help!</p></li><li><p>Listen to the lifeguards and monitor beach conditions before you go into the water.</p></li></ol><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-02 081848-1788368179615.jpg">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest in the forecast.</p>

High Heat & Humidity Across the Southwest

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On Thursday, the <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Prediction Center</a> issued their <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">30 day forecast for January</a>. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across most of the West, with below average readings in the Southeast. The South is expected to see wetter than normal weather, with below average precipitation in the Northwest and Ohio Valley.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1075749752531230721

The main forecast influences were global pattern trends and long range model forecasts. An <a href="http://bit.ly/2LlCx9S" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extensively discussed El Nino is underway</a> in the Pacific Ocean, but the atmosphere has yet to respond. Observed sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal as expected, with computer models expecting this to continue. Right now, the overall global pattern resembles neutral conditions. Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the CPC still indicates</a> a greater than 80 percent chance for <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el%20nino">El Nino</a> from January to March and 70 percent that it persists through May.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101162" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl-620x413-2018-11-00.png" alt="" width="620" height="413" />

[<em>November 2018 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Graphic by NOAA Climate; data from <a id="anch_29" href="https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/">NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab</a>.</em>]

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

&nbsp;

January 2019 Outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

Fall may be getting closer on the calendar, b

Rounds of Storms Increase the Flood Threat in the Midwest

It's no secret that the Midwest has been the

Tropics: Power Restoration Progresses in Kauai, Norbert & TD-E Track West

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

Active Pattern Takes Shape Across the Plains

WHAT TO EXPECTThings will be active across th

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

For the first time in the satellite era (sinc

Storms Winding Down Across Northeast

WHAT TO EXPECT Record rainfall has fallen acr

High Heat & Humidity Across the Southwest

Temperatures not only broke records on Wednes