July Outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
Welcome moisture chances in the Southwest and heat for much of the country are the highlights from the new July outlook issued from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected over much of the nation, especially in the West. Wetter than average weather is anticipated in the Southwest, as an active monsoonal season and added tropical moisture is in the forecast. Below normal precipitation is the outlook for the Northeast, Northwest, and along the Gulf of Mexico coastline in Texas and Louisiana.
The Climate Prediction Center states that the primary forecast tools for this outlook were model forecasts, statistical tools, soil moisture conditions, and variability in the tropics. With neutral water temperature conditions being observed in the Pacific Ocean, no influence is expected in July from La Nina or El Nino.
We are anticipating increased chances of above-normal rains across the Southwest through Central Rockies during July, tied to enhanced moisture transport out of the East Pacific and an active start to the Southwest monsoon. https://t.co/ZojpnS5Ja5 pic.twitter.com/Dx4gdcRgDA
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) June 21, 2018
Soil moisture conditions and current trends favor warmer than average conditions in the West, central Plains and Northeast. Model forecasts also support above average temperatures.
For precipitation, many models indicate an active start to the monsoons in the West, along with wet signals in the tropical Pacific. This leads to the above average rainfall forecast for the Southwest. A drier trend is shown in the models for the Caribbean over the upcoming month, highlighting below average precipitation in Deep South.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels