Kevin Schneider

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We've been locked in a relatively quiet stretch of late when talking about severe storms. In fact, October is on a run of 11 straight days with only a MARGINAL or general thunderstorm risk. The nation hasn't seen this kind of stretch since the end of February! This remarkably quiet jog will likely come to an end this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 091348-1760541236378.png">The same system that brought California some early-season snow and heavy rain is now moving across the Rockies. By this weekend, the stage will be set for storms that could bring damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.<h1>SETUP</h1>A strong cold front will drop through the southern plains Friday into Saturday. Ahead of it, warm temperatures - some that might threaten records - will greet it. The clash between the two air masses will help drive thunderstorms well up in the atmosphere.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093129-1760542364613.png">That simple difference between hot and cold is enough to bet on, so much so that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area along the Mid-Mississippi River Valley for severe storms. However, this far in advance of a system, there is plenty to still iron out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760614739342.png">Are there going to be storms? Likely. How strong to potentially severe will they be? That's up in the air. It's still a little too early to tell which fine-scale ingredients will be in play.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093533-1760542706942.png">TIMING</h1>During the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1978445758908043673">secondary severe season</a>, you don't always know what you're going to get as far as timing. This event appears to be favoring the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. However, there's plenty of time for that to change between now and then.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/cf-1760578600704.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>THREATS</h1>It's a little early to rule out many specific threats. It does look like areas that have been abnormally dry recently could get a strong dousing of water, which could be tough to handle. Be sure to keep up with the forecast for the rest of the week, as we get a better sense of what will unfold this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093956-1760543118412.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible in this advisory.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760613270211.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1760613385949.png">The timing of these storms appears to intensify as temperatures rise. We can expect some rain to start for the western Plains as early as midday, but the severe component will be higher during the peak of afternoon heating. By Thursday, the cold front will move through this region, providing lift for thunderstorm development.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-18-06-1760613519100.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web5-1760613656302.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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The Atlantic hurricane season has been a relatively quiet one so far. Any cyclone that has formed has stayed out to sea, as seen with Lorenzo most recently. If this latest wave develops, it could threaten more land directly than any previous wave has. But there's a TON that can happen between now and then. The wave is currently over the Central Atlantic, heading west.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760583111055.png">As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 100726-1760545668761.png">The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. Waters in the Caribbean will stay warmer later into the season, which helps keep the window of opportunity open for development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 102915-1760545762043.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 12 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">

Jesse Kelley

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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NORTHWEST - Winter weather advisories have been issued for Wyoming for snowfall totals between 1-4" above 6,000 feet, with heavier amounts between 6-10" in the higher elevations. Winter storm warnings remain in place for the Ruby Mountains of Nevada as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 135009-1760557822388.png">This round will be much more scattered in nature and may take a day or so to really accumulate on the mountain peaks. Lower elevations are expected to see rainfall with all of the Pacific moisture being pulled into the northwest.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/kjh-1760578165908.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>From now through Friday, rain totals may reach an inch, and snowfall totals may surpass half a foot, especially in the Tetons, northern Rockies, and Bitteroots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 135017-1760557848282.png">For more details on how this may impact temperatures, be sure to join us at :50 past the hour on TV for your west regional forecast.

Snow for the Rockies and Tetons

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Brittany Lockley

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As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have been lifted for Los Angeles after torrential rain fell over burned areas. The warnings were issued for areas with burn scars from earlier fires, like the Palisades, Hurst, and Sunset fire zones, due to the threat of mud and debris flows. Heavy rainfall, snow, and gusty winds continue to calm down for the southern half of the Golden State as a strong trough continues to move to the northeast.Rainfall reached up to 9 inches in California's Haines Canyon, in southern California. The threat of heavy rainfall and snow moves to the northern half of the state this morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-15 03-23-08-1760520223806.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals appear impressive for an October storm system in California, considering it is early in the season for such heavy precipitation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 200559-1760493964815.png"><h1>Rain &amp; Flooding</h1>Flash flooding and debris flows will be possible through early Wednesday despite the rain having already happened. The heaviest of the rain has occurred, with storm totals likely having been upwards of 3 inches, which keeps the burn-scarred areas of southern California from recent wildfires at risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 144824-1760474941902.png"><h1>Snowfall</h1>Once this event is complete by Wednesday afternoon, snowfall totals may have topped a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Here are snowfall totals as of Wednesday AM. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760536071310.png">Winter Storm Warnings (Pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (Purple) have now been dropped for the Sierra Nevada Range but more winter alerts have been issued for areas like Jackson, WY as this system lifts to the NE. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1760535989343.png">Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.

Tracey Anthony

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

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A low-pressure system that has tracked up the East Coast continues to bring threats of coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. While this system has not developed, and is not expected to develop, any tropical characteristics, it’s behaving much like an early-season Nor’easter, delivering similar impacts minus the cold and snow. Areas along the shores of North Carolina to New England were impacted by this system.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1977894622975430882" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1977894622975430882"></div>The system is expected to move away from the coast through Tuesday but New Jersey still had a handful of strong wind reports on Monday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 14-1760436387824.png"><h2>Rainfall</h2>Heavy rain was very localized from this system, and will be far and few especially as it moves away from the East Coast. But a few daily rainfall records were still broken on Monday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 13-1760436496566.png">A few scattered rain showers still remain possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-13 east-1760408242196.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Coastal flood alerts have been slowly ending for much of the Atlantic Coast. Sea water flooding during high tides could still approach 2-3 feet of inundation in some areas (warning areas in dark green).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 12-1760436278168.png">The major flood stage is expected to be reached around the southern Chesapeake, mostly during high tides. Prepare for sea water inundation to continue into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124158-1760380926209.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, has ruled that a tornado near Enderlin, ND, caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This marks the end of 12 years without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm caused three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade its survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, to learn more about the decision to upgrade the tornado rating and the factors that influenced the decision.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20, 2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S., spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long-track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive windstorms. Several typically occur each year, though they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane-force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota, was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as an intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything, keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to break their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Rob Bradley

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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Intense rainfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning proved fatal in southeastern Kansas. According to the Montgomery County Sheriff's Office, two men were killed as their vehicle was swept off the road by rising flood waters. The identities of the father and son were released as Dennis Clark Catron Sr. (72) and Dennis Clark Catron Jr. (39) of rural Elk City.

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Reports of seven to nine inches of rainfall came in across the Independence, Kansas area. Local authorities responded to multiple stranded motorists, in some cases going door to door to warn residents of high water.

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Reports of a tornado also came into Elk City just after 5:30 pm CDT. Here's a look at just a handful of the local storm reports coming into the NWS Wichita office from the event:

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Some of the storms yesterday even turned tornadic. A possible tornado touchdown was seen near Elk City, KS

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1029869146979201024

For <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>, Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/karissa-klos-2/">Karissa Klos</a>.