La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

news image
Special Stories
15 Oct 2025 10:00 AM

La Niña was observed in September, leading to NOAA issuing a La Niña advisory. These conditions are expected to persist through winter into spring, with impacts likely for the upcoming winter season and beyond into next spring. La Niña often plays a role in determining storm tracks during the winter season and severe weather into the spring.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is one phase of a large circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The prevalent wind direction will churn up cooler or warmer water, based on the direction of the circulation. When winds are prevailing from the east, it churns up cooler waters near the coast of South America and to the west, while areas in the western Pacific see warmer than average water temperatures during this phase. These cooler waters, along with other large scale circulations, impact how air flows across the United States.

During strong La Niñas, the jet stream is typically more active from the Northwest through the Great Lakes. This effect is typically less pronounced during weaker events. This often favors better chances for precipitation across the northern tier of the country, including the Northwest and Great Lakes.

Impact for Winter 25'-26'

NOAA releases their outlook for the upcoming winter season this Thursday (October 16th) but the Climate Prediction Center continuously updates outlooks for three month periods. These outlooks likely won't change much with next week's update but we'll bring you that forecast when it's released. The temperature and precipitation outlooks for December - February show conditions typical for a La Niña year, with below average temperatures favored in the Pacific Northwest.

The precipitation outlook also favors conditions fairly typical for a La Niña winter, with above average precipitation favored around the Northern Rockies and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Spring Severe Weather / Tornado Impacts

La Niña is expected to decay through the spring months, which can have a big impact on the severe weather season. Studies have shown a increase in the potential for tornado outbreaks over certain areas of the country as La Niña decays into a neutral or El Niño phase. These favored areas include the Central/Southern Plains and around the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

This phase also favors stronger tornadoes, as the number of high end tornadoes and outbreaks increase during this phase.

Seasonal forecasts are difficult to predict with accuracy, so be sure to check the weather forecasts often with WeatherNation for the latest.

All Weather News
More
Melissa Post-Tropical After Bringing Catastrophic Impacts to Western Jamaica

Melissa Post-Tropical After Bringing Catastrophic Impacts to Western Jamaica

Melissa made landfall on Tuesday, October 28t

31 Oct 2025 6:20 PM
FORECAST: Halloween Night Shaping Up Okay For Many

FORECAST: Halloween Night Shaping Up Okay For Many

I will never forget the time it snowed in sou

31 Oct 2025 6:15 PM
Gusty Winds & Rain Linger in the Northeast on Friday

Gusty Winds & Rain Linger in the Northeast on Friday

An upper-level low has been moving across the

31 Oct 2025 6:00 PM
Next Atmospheric River Brings Halloween Rain

Next Atmospheric River Brings Halloween Rain

WEST - A series of atmospheric rivers has bee

31 Oct 2025 5:55 PM
Strong Winds, Temperature Changes, and Severe Storms

Strong Winds, Temperature Changes, and Severe Storms

Monday in Texas brought us record-breaking he

29 Oct 2025 10:00 PM
Santa Ana Setup Bringing the Heat into Southern California

Santa Ana Setup Bringing the Heat into Southern California

LOS ANGELES - On Tuesday, temperatures in LA

29 Oct 2025 8:45 PM
Flash Flood Emergency Triggered Sunday in Florida

Flash Flood Emergency Triggered Sunday in Florida

Slow-moving train thunderstorms produced extr

28 Oct 2025 10:15 AM