Kevin Schneider

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<p>An area of low pressure is intensifying as it moves up the East Coast to end the weekend. Gusty onshore winds will amplify the coastal flood threat created by King Tides, while heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding in some areas, including the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This low is not expected to gain tropical characteristics; instead, think of the low as an early-season Nor'easter, as impacts will be similar (except for the cold/snow).</p><h2><strong>Rainfall</strong></h2><p>As the low moves north from the Carolinas, heavy rain will precede and wrap around the low. Scattered heavy thunderstorms are expected in the Carolinas up through New England over the weekend and to start the next work week. While coastal areas will see heavy rain, areas inland (mostly west of I-95) are expected to see much less.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10121-1760279210543.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Areas of 2-5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated areas receiving 6 inches or more. Some areas of South Carolina have already reached 3-4 inches, with a few more possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082711-1760279238089.png"></p><h2>Winds &amp; Coastal Flooding</h2><p>Gusty winds are expected as well and could be the biggest impact - especially for the coastal areas. Wind alerts have been posted from the Chesapeake Bay through Cape Cod. Gusts in these areas could approach 60 mph through Monday! Power outages will be possible where wind and rain are elevated. The strongest gusts are expected late Sunday into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082727-1760279252051.png">Coastal flood alerts have been issued for much of the Atlantic Coast. Sea water flooding during high tides could approach 2-3 feet of inundation in some areas (warnings areas in dark green).</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082757-1760279286650.png">Avoid locations that typically flood during king tides, typically low lying areas near the coast/inlets. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082821-1760279306843.png">The major flood stage is expected to be reached around the southern Chesapeake, mostly during high tides. Prepare for sea water inundation to continue into Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082812-1760279311486.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.</p>

Rob Bradley

October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

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<p>Flash flooding will continue to be possible in the southwestern United States over the next few days as tropical moisture is pulled north into the region. Be sure to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home">check your property's flood zone</a> and have a plan to seek higher ground if necessary. NEVER drive through flood waters if you cannot easily see the water's depth or the road below it. Washouts are likely in the next few days. In fact, several people needed swift water rescues in Las Vegas Friday night as record rainfall targeted the city (0.92" - 4th wettest day on record in October).</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1976849958520472066" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1976849958520472066"></div><p><br><br>The remnant moisture from the two most recent tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific, Priscilla and Raymond, will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms over a wide range of terrain throughout the weekend. Several inches of rain are expected across the Four Corners with isolated heavier totals. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082433-1760279077516.png">In addition to the flood threat, severe storms are possible through Tuesday as the trough moving through the northern Rockies increases wind shear farther south. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, but large hail could accompany any of the stronger storms in the afternoons.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082225-1760278949784.png">This evening, more scattered showers and storms will be possible in the Four Corners. Some storms could create some heavy rainfall rates and produce some flooding. The surge of moisture Sunday through Tuesday from Raymond will also increase flood chances for areas of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10112-1760279033727.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation. For a more immediate update on your southwest regional forecast, be sure to tune in at:50!</p>

Taban Sharifi

Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

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<p>It's been months since meaningful snow fell over the higher terrain of California, but that's going to change in the days ahead. Heavy rain, snow, and gusty winds are on the way to the Golden State as a strong trough digs south from Canada to start the work week. Expect impacts to travel in higher terrain, especially over I-80 and CA SR 50 on either side of Lake Tahoe. Over a foot of snow could fall on these corridors.</p><h1>Forecast</h1><p>Scattered rain and snow showers will drift south on Sunday, delivering the first round of snow to the Sierra Sunday evening. The heavier precipitation develops Monday afternoon and evening with flooding rain possible in lower elevations and very heavy snow in the mountains. Rain moves south along the coast to Los Angeles by Tuesday morning as snow continues in the Central Sierra. Conditions are expect to improve by Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-12 05-43-31-1760269745854.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Snow totals are expected to top a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Be sure to carry chains and use them once the requirement is put into effect. The heaviest snow is expected from Monday evening into Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082047-1760278874440.png">Winter Storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Sierra Nevada, including South Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lakes.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 082005-1760278880475.png">This will be the first storm this season for the Sierra Nevada. Make sure you are prepared for winter driving across the passes! Heavy bursts of snow are likely at times in the Central Sierra.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sierra-1760221597161.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rain &amp; Flood</h1><p>Rainfall totals look impressive for an October storm system in California, as it's a bit early in the season for precipitation this heavy. Pockets of 1-3 inches of rain are expected, with isolated totals approaching 4". Rainfall rates and the potential for flooding will likely be highest Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 060206-1760270913954.png">The potential for flash flooding has been highlighted by the WPC for Monday and Tuesday for areas in light green (below).</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 061205-1760271133770.png">Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.</p>

Active Weather Returns to California By Monday

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<p>The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has thus far been dominated by strong hurricanes, curving away from the United States with a few close calls/impacts from weaker systems. Don't let your guard down! October and even November can still churn out strong storms in the Gulf and Caribbean.</p><p>A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has a chance to develop this week as it churns into the central Atlantic. This storm is currently expected to stay well out into open waters.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-12 083149-1760279512949.png">The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has outlined a few regions with chances for tropical development through the middle/end of October.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 045254-1760093597412.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 045309-1760093605441.png">The next names on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane list are Lorenzo and Melissa.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-11 072558-1760189164925.png">Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics.</p>

Atlantic Tropics: Tropical Waves Could Develop Next Week

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<p>La Niña was observed in September, leading to NOAA issuing a La Niña advisory. These conditions are expected to persist through winter into spring, with impacts likely for the upcoming winter season and beyond into next spring. La Niña often plays a role in determining storm tracks during the winter season and severe weather into the spring.</p><h1>What is La Niña?</h1><p>La Niña is one phase of a large circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The prevalent wind direction will churn up cooler or warmer water, based on the direction of the circulation. When winds are prevailing from the east, it churns up cooler waters near the coast of South America and to the west, while areas in the western Pacific see warmer than average water temperatures during this phase. These cooler waters, along with other large scale circulations, impact how air flows across the United States.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 110029-1760115646348.png">During strong La Niñas, the jet stream is typically more active from the Northwest through the Great Lakes. This effect is typically less pronounced during weaker events. This often favors better chances for precipitation across the northern tier of the country, including the Northwest and Great Lakes.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095632-1760111817342.png"></p><h1>Impact for Winter 25'-26'</h1><p>NOAA releases their outlook for the upcoming winter season this Thursday (October 16th) but the Climate Prediction Center continuously updates outlooks for three month periods. These outlooks likely won't change much with next week's update but we'll bring you that forecast when it's released. The temperature and precipitation outlooks for December - February show conditions typical for a La Niña year, with below average temperatures favored in the Pacific Northwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095641-1760111827269.png"></p><p>The precipitation outlook also favors conditions fairly typical for a La Niña winter, with above average precipitation favored around the Northern Rockies and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095637-1760111827269.png"></p><h1>Spring Severe Weather / Tornado Impacts</h1><p>La Niña is expected to decay through the spring months, which can have a big impact on the severe weather season. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research_highlight/u-s-regional-tornado-outbreaks-and-their-links-to-spring-enso-phases-and-north-atlantic-sst-variability/">Studies have shown</a> a increase in the potential for tornado outbreaks over certain areas of the country as La Niña decays into a neutral or El Niño phase. These favored areas include the Central/Southern Plains and around the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 105635-1760115430383.png"></p><p>This phase also <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ENSO_Tornado_Lee.pdf">favors stronger tornadoes</a>, as the number of high end tornadoes and outbreaks increase during this phase.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 100658-1760112433708.png"></p><p>Seasonal forecasts are difficult to predict with accuracy, so be sure to check the weather forecasts often with WeatherNation for the latest.</p>

La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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<p>The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, has ruled that a tornado near Enderlin, ND, caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This marks the end of 12 years without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.</p><p>The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm caused three fatalities.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png"></p><p>Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade its survey findings:</p><blockquote><p><em>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</em></p></blockquote><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, to learn more about the decision to upgrade the tornado rating and the factors that influenced the decision.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1><p>On June 20, 2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S., spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long-track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.</p><p style="text-align: start">A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm"><strong><u>SPC has a detailed page</u></strong></a> dedicated to these destructive windstorms. Several typically occur each year, though they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho"><strong><u>derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</u></strong></a>, producing hurricane-force winds and widespread damage.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2><p style="text-align: start">Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!</p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota, was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as an intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.</p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything, keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png"></p><p style="text-align: start">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to break their yearly tornado record</a>.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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<p>The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 17 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely above average (101%). Moisture from Raymond and Post Tropical Priscilla is expected to bring heavy rain chances to the Southwest.</p><h1>Post Tropical Priscilla</h1><p>Priscilla is no more as it has lost its tropical characteristics as it weakened before making landfall near Ensenada, Mexico. Moisture from this system is expected to cause flooding as it moves into the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/moisture-returns-to-the-southwest-some-priscilla-influence-later">Desert Southwest</a>.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760135797187.png"></p><h1>Raymond</h1><p>Tropical Storm Raymond formed west of Acapulco, Mexico and will bring the threat of heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf. Similar to Priscilla, the moisture from Raymond could bring more heavy downpours into the Desert SW!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 193719-1760146644953.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 193752-1760146678986.png"></p><p>In the meantime, tropical storm warnings have been issued from Cabo San Lucas to the south of Manzanillo.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760135984651.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!</p>

Brittany Lockley

Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

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<p>Another intense night of severe storms ripped through portions of the Upper-Midwest from Thursday night into Friday morning. Multiple bowing segments congealed into a large complex/squall line, which produced wind damage for over 300 miles across the states of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. Thousands of households lost power while several structures have reported damage.<br><br>Will this be classified as a derecho? According to NWS Grand Forks, Thursday's night storm was not classified as a derecho. Listen why.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/SOT_TRT.34_(audio fixed)EXPLAINING WHY THE STORMS DIDN'T MEET DERECHO CRITERIA_MS_E080825_1-1754708943137.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><br><br>Again, NWS Grand Forks believes the factors of not enough higher end wind gusts, the duration of the wind event, and the coverage area was enough not to deem this event as a derecho. However, we can still learn more on what is a derecho!  A big severe strength wind storm to say the least, but the Storm Prediction Center has a full definition including multiple criteria that have to be met.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061237-1754655858161.png">It certainly appears this system will meet the spatial requirements for a derecho as damaging wind reports (58+ mph) stretch for over 300 miles.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061159-1754655182565.png">Peak gusts were well over 75 mph, with a gust at Gran Forks Air Force Base measured at 91 mph!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061206-1754655189603.png">This squall line produced several 75+ mph gusts, which appear to be well separated as well. This also appears to meet the requirement for a derecho.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061215-1754655197446.png">While it appears this system has met the basic 3 requirements for a derecho, other criteria (top of the page) have to be met as well. In addition, wind reports and reports of damage will have to be verified as accurate.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061231-1754655205131.png">Derechos most often occur from the late spring through the summer, with a typical drop off in August.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061246-1754655219174.png"></p>

Possible Derecho Hit the Upper-Midwest Friday Morning

October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

An area of low pressure is intensifying as it

Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

Flash flooding will continue to be possible i

Active Weather Returns to California By Monday

It's been months since meaningful snow fell o

Atlantic Tropics: Tropical Waves Could Develop Next Week

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has thus f

La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

La Niña was observed in September, leading to

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average