NHC Using a New Hurricane Model for the 2023 Season

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) “moving nest" Model. Global map showcasing land mass in green and water in black, clouds in white and tropical storms outlined in a green boxes representing the moving nest model. (Image credit: NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center has released a new forecast model to help predict hurricanes this season. The "Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) became operations only June 27, running alongside preexisting models for the 2023 season. Future plans for the HAFS will be for it to replace previous models as the agency's main hurricane forecasting model during hurricane season.

This model was previously experimental, tested during the 2019-2022 Hurricane Seasons and was 10-15% better than existing models. According to NOAA, "HAFS is expected to continue increasing forecast accuracy, therefore reducing storm impacts to lives and property."

One of the key differences of the HAFS model is that is better at predicting rapid intensification of tropical systems. Rapid intensification is defined as an increase of 35 mph in sustained wind speeds of a storm within 24 hours.

“With the introduction of the HAFS forecast model into our suite of tropical forecasting tools, our forecasters are better equipped than ever to safeguard lives and property with enhanced accuracy and timely warnings,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “HAFS is the result of strong collaborative efforts throughout the science community and marks significant progress in hurricane prediction.”

According to NOAA, "HAFS is also the first new major forecast model implementation using NOAA’s updated weather and climate supercomputers" and in the next 4 years the model will get several upgrades to improve accuracy. The goals is "by 2027, to reduce all model forecast errors by nearly half compared to errors seen in 2017."

HAFS was jointly created by NOAA's National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center, Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory and NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies.