NOAA Climate Prediction Center November Forecast Update
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has updated their outlook for the month of November. Several changes were made from the forecast issued two weeks ago on October 18th. Warmer than average weather is still expected in the West and along the Eastern Seaboard, but a pocket of below normal temperatures has been added in the mid section of the nation. Wetter than average weather is forecast in the eastern and central sections of the nation, and especially for the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Below average precipitation is still outlined for the Northwest.
Our final November outlook shows increased odds for above normal precipitation for most areas east of the Rockies. In terms of temperature, below-normal chances are increased across the Central US, but may be negated by a warming trend late in the month. https://t.co/ZojpnS5Ja5 pic.twitter.com/U7wCp7D1FP
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) October 31, 2018
Long term Autumn climate forecasts are often difficult, as noted in the CPC forecast discussion. The temperature forecast has the most uncertainty, due to model variability and an expected pattern shift at the end of the month. The precipitation forecast has shown more consistent signals in model forecasts.
In November we favor above-normal temperatures for nearly the entire US. Odds increase for above-normal precipitation across the southern US and East Coast, while chances rise for below-normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Plains https://t.co/ZojpnSnk1D pic.twitter.com/ky1gRMNCzr
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) October 18, 2018
[Climate Prediction Center original November forecast]
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels