logo
NOAA Winter Outlook Favors Warmer Temperatures for Much of the Country
news image
Special Stories
18 Oct 2018 9:25 AM

[A fresh winter snow. From iStock via NOAA]

[NOAA] A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.

[Flowing river in winter. From iStock via NOAA]

The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Temperature

  • Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

  • The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

  • No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.

Precipitation

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

  • Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Drought

  • Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.

  • Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1052937829918093312 NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqhlgovftLY

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on Nov. 15.

Edited for WeatherNation by Meteorologist Mace Michaels

All Weather News
Snow Chances From Colorado Through the Plains
Snow Chances From Colorado Through the Plains
New winter weather alerts have been issued fr
27 Mar 2023 2:35 AM
HIGH Risk of Flooding Across the Southeast Into Monday
HIGH Risk of Flooding Across the Southeast Into Monday
A rare high risk of excessive rainfall has be
27 Mar 2023 2:30 AM
More Cold and Snow as Snowpack in California Creeps Closer to Top Spot
More Cold and Snow as Snowpack in California Creeps Closer to Top Spot
CALIFORNIA - We have had an incredible snow s
27 Mar 2023 1:35 AM
Parts of the Southeast Stay Sunny and Sultry
Parts of the Southeast Stay Sunny and Sultry
A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexic
27 Mar 2023 1:30 AM
Strong Thunderstorms to Return to the Plains Thursday
Strong Thunderstorms to Return to the Plains Thursday
Confidence is increasing in the threat of wid
27 Mar 2023 1:25 AM
Heavy Snow for the Great Lakes and Northeast Tonight
Heavy Snow for the Great Lakes and Northeast Tonight
Another low-pressure system moving through th
25 Mar 2023 9:25 PM
Flooding Turns Fatal in Missouri
Flooding Turns Fatal in Missouri
Heavy rain brought on by torrential downpours
24 Mar 2023 8:20 PM