Storms have seemingly been drawn to the Northeast and Great Lakes this year, delivering rounds of cold and snow through much of this La Nina oriented winter so far. Another storm system is shaping up to end the weekend that could deliver heavy snow, and possibly blizzard conditions, to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Sunday into Monday.

After initial differences, forecast models are beginning to come into better agreement about the position of the low staying close enough to the coast to bring heavy snow to portions of the I-95 corridor. As a result, Winter Storm Watches are now up for the Interstate 95 region into Monday.

We like to show model comparisons for a high impact weather event so you can plan for multiple scenarios, until a solution is agreed upon anyway. The GFS Model (above) shows the (seemingly) high end potential for this event, with 1-2 feet of snow widespread from VA through New Hampshire.

The Baron model (below) shows what looks like a more reasonable forecast, with pockets of 6-12" of snow from the Chesapeake Bay up through New England. It also shows the secondary bullseye in the Appalachians and Alleghenies with 6-12" of snow.

Timing

Rain will start changing to snow in the Appalachians late Saturday into Sunday morning, with heavy rain down to the Piedmont of North Carolina. As the low deepens and bombs out (dropping 24 mb in 24 hours), it will start to pull in much colder air from the north, turning rain to mostly snow up and down the Atlantic coastline. The heavy snow, strong winds, and large waves increase intensity Sunday evening through Monday morning, with snow finally ending late Monday as the low pulls away from the coast.

Wind & Waves

Strong winds are expected to develop as the low pressure system deepens. Remember, the bigger the pressure difference, the stronger the winds. The persistent strong winds will lead to large swells developing with waves 8-12 feet, possibly higher, for many Northeast beaches through Monday and Tuesday.

We'll be updating this story frequently on air and online, so be sure to check back for updates.