Kevin Schneider

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<p>A powerful low pressure system has been moving through the Southwest since Wednesday, producing numerous flash flood events and severe weather. A tornado hit a few homes in Heber-Overgaard (Arizona) on Wednesday, causing significant damage, while hailstones larger than golf balls have been falling at times. The heavy rainfall rates have led to several significant flash flood events, like the one below, including several calls for swift water rescues.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2113405036651008510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2113405036651008510"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 083001-1792852233932.png"></p><p>Unfortunately, the San Juan River has caused damage in multiple areas, from Pagosa Springs down through northern New Mexico. The River hit record flood stage in Farmington and Ship Rock. The river is expected to get back below action stage by Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792882943366.png"></p><h2>Timing</h2><h2>SEVERE THREAT</h2><p>Severe storm outlooks have been issued throughout the weekend across portions of New Mexico, Texas, and Colorado. The primary threats will be hail damage, strong winds, and an isolated tornado or two.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 042315-1792837414533.png"></p><h2>RAINFALL &amp; FLOOD POTENTIAL</h2><p>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is highlighting areas from New Mexico out into the Southern Plains that could see additional flash flooding. The corridor of heaviest rain looks to aim at southeast Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 042434-1792837489353.png"></p><h2>FORECAST TIMING</h2><p>Storms look most active in the afternoons and evenings. While a few storms are expected early in the day, the additional energy created by sunlight will foster numerous storms by the afternoon hours with heavier rainfall rates and updrafts strong enough to produce large hail and damaging winds. Flash flooding will be most concerning at night, when it's harder to judge how much water might be over a road.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792871774339.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>As always, if you encounter water over a road, especially at night, turn around and find another way around!</p><p></p>

Patrick Crawford

Major River Flooding Causes Damage; Another Day of Storms in New Mexico

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>After becoming a hurricane Friday, Vance quickly strengthened into a Category 2 in the Eastern Pacific, south of Mexico. It is expected to reach major hurricane status Saturday as it creeps north toward the Mexican coast. Impacts are likely for the west coast of Mexico. Its slow movement will mean long-lasting coastal wave action and erosion potential. The good news is, it should weaken as it enters an unfavorable environment early next week. Still, landfall is possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 114008-1792863625778.png"></p><p>There is another area of tropical interest brewing west of the Hawaiian Islands. Right now it has a low chance of tropical development in the next 7 days. The odd thing about this area of interest is it will backtrack against the usual trade winds and move eastward. Right now, it's not expected to impact Hawaii directly.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 043145-1792837918526.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Hurricane Vance Swirling in the Pacific

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<h3>WHAT TO EXPECT</h3><p>A ridge of high pressure lingers, keeping temperatures above average across the central U.S. Temperatures across the south will run 5°-10° above average, but in the northern Plains and Midwest, 10°- 20° above average! This will make for some warm weather for any fall activities you have planned.</p><h3>NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST:</h3><p>It was another warm October afternoon on Friday across the High Plains. A sharp cold front is dropping through the area this weekend, however. Check out the highs in the forecast through Monday. Minneapolis will only reach 49° Monday afternoon.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 113848-1792863542876.png">The Central and Southern Plains won't feel as significant of impacts from this front. Temperatures will linger above average, in the 70s and 80s, through the weekend. However, there's some signal that temperatures will cool off late this week 👀</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1792796162857.png"></p><p>This year has been a good reminder to enjoy the cool air when it does make an appearance. As we look ahead to the last few days of October, there is high confidence that much of the country will remain above average. That looks to include and Trick or Treaters if the pattern holds up!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-23 072251-1792761783377.png"></p>

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>SETUP</h1><p>The National Hurricane Center was watching the coastal low that brought many impacts to the eastern U.S.. Josephine quickly became a subtropical storm. As quickly as this storm became subtropical, it changed to Post-Tropical. Here is a look at the latest information.</p><h1>JOSEPHINE FORECAST</h1><p>Josephine is no longer being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. This storm is post-tropical, and that means it is basically a low-pressure system in the Atlantic waters. The impacts will be diminishing through Friday morning along the Atlantic Seaboard.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1792702093000.png"></p><h3>FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS</h3><p>Wave heights between 10-20 feet will be possible at times, making for dangerous conditions.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792702130751.png"></p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p>High winds with Josephine will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest, and places like Virginia, which will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792702219831.png">More updates on this evolving setup will be coming up all day and night on WeatherNation.</p><h1></h1>

Josephine is Now Post-Tropical

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday, one of which was the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger. Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. Weather conditions will help in containment efforts moving forward.</p><p><strong>Bryson Fire: </strong>146 acres, 74% contained. This fire began in Los Angeles County near Encinal Canyon Rd. in Malibu on Thursday, Oct. 15.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110928718306615510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110928718306615510"></div><p><strong>Norte Fire: </strong>570 acres, 60% contained. The Norte fire began in Orange County, right along the border between San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente. This fire started on Friday, October 16th. Orange County fire officials say six homes have been damaged or destroyed. The burn scar remains an active fire hazard area and is closed until further notice.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111192490997125311" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111192490997125311"></div><p><strong>Henderson Fire: </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">3,260 acres, 85% contained. This was the largest of the fires that broke out. The Henderson fire began on Thursday afternoon near Camp Pendleton. The fire forced closures of north and southbound lanes of I-5 as it grew rapidly. All evacuation orders are now lifted.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111479851412832613" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111479851412832613"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 183715-1792370245286.png">Fire Outlook</h1><p>There is a <strong>Elevated</strong> risk for fire danger across portions of Northern California, Nevada, and Southeastern Oregon on Monday. A strong trough is dropping down the coast today, kicking up the winds in these locations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 073620-1792417058638.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p>

Tracey Anthony

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p>Across portions of the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be cool to start your Monday morning. There are widespread frost and freeze alerts for temperatures into the 30s.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185729-1792371454398.png">Ridge of high pressure builds back in by Wednesday, bringing temperatures back above average across the central U.S.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185752-1792371502912.png">Temperatures start to climb on Wednesday and will continue to stay warm through the work week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185829-1792371519268.png">It's not just the south, the north will climb well above normal too. Minneapolis will reach the 70s when temperatures should be under 60 by now.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185834-1792371541054.png">The longer-range outlook holds on to a higher confidence that temperatures will remain above normal through the end of October across a large portion of the country.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 190004-1792371633934.png">Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.</p>

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Rob Bradley

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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Sometimes there may not be a sure bet on who will win the Kentucky Derby, but this year's odds on rain are just about a lock!

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Expect rain to be falling at post time, scheduled for 6:50 p.m. Eastern Saturday. With recent rainy conditions and more forecast, the track should be quite muddy. The rain will be due to a slow-moving area of low pressure traversing the Ohio River Valley region. The latest forecast is showing the rain to get heavier through the afternoon hours Saturday. Our only hope for drier weather is if the rain will move out and finish sooner, rather than later.

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Even around the post time for the Kentucky Derby Saturday, it still looks quite wet. All of that yellow and orange shows the heavy rain. Right now, 0.50-1.00" of rain is forecast on just Saturday alone! The heaviest time frame for rain will be between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. Saturday. Wind will be light.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier

Odds In Favor Of A Muddy Kentucky Derby

Major River Flooding Causes Damage; Another Day of Storms in New Mexico

A powerful low pressure system has been movin

Hurricane Vance Swirling in the Pacific

After becoming a hurricane Friday, Vance quic

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

WHAT TO EXPECTA ridge of high pressure linger

Josephine is Now Post-Tropical

SETUPThe National Hurricane Center was watchi

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

Across portions of the Ohio Valley through th

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi