Kevin Schneider

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<h1>SETUP</h1><p>An upper-level low is in the process of breaking off from the flow aloft. This will help spin up an area of low-pressure at the surface that will largely be stationary for this week. That could buy it enough time to acquire subtropical characteristics sometime this week. Regardless, the impacts will be felt, especially along the coasts.</p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113555-1792344980113.png"></p><p>High winds with a stubborn low will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest and places like Virginia who will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 042134-1792405320409.png">Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph at times throughout the week as well. The questions about rainfall hinge on the location of the low. At this time, only areas along the coast could get a few showers, with the best chance looking like Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 042213-1792405402944.png"></p><h1>JOSEPHINE? IS THAT YOU?</h1><p>But if the low develops some tropical characteristics, it would need a name. Josephine is the next name on the list in the Atlantic basin. The NHC only gives it a LOW chance of development, which is more or less in line with the model data.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 042342-1792405443182.png">Right now, a majority of models struggle to develop the traits needed to qualify as a subtropical system, but that could change. Ultimately, the impacts won't change with or without officially naming it.</p><p></p>

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Looking ahead through this week, a big low pressure system will drop south from Canada down into Southern California. WPC favors most of the Western United States for seeing above average precipitation, which is good news, after the fires that broke out across Southern California last week. </p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111615747600343344" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111615747600343344"></div><p></p><p> The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a <strong>marginal </strong>to <strong>slight</strong> risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Southwest Wednesday and Thursday. The precipitation should really get going on Wednesday, especially for Central and Southern California. Throughout the week, the precipitation will slide eastward into the Four Corners.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 1-1792417551787.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1792417567111.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 3-1792417610336.png"></p><p>The Sierra Nevada could be at play for some snowfall with this event.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185327-1792371213365.png">For all the lastest details tune into the West Regional forecast every hour, at :50 past the hour.</p>

Pattern Change for the West This Week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday, one of which was the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger. Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. Weather conditions will help in containment efforts moving forward.</p><p><strong>Bryson Fire: </strong>146 acres, 74% contained. This fire began in Los Angeles County near Encinal Canyon Rd. in Malibu on Thursday, Oct. 15.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110928718306615510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110928718306615510"></div><p><strong>Norte Fire: </strong>570 acres, 60% contained. The Norte fire began in Orange County, right along the border between San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente. This fire started on Friday, October 16th. Orange County fire officials say six homes have been damaged or destroyed. The burn scar remains an active fire hazard area and is closed until further notice.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111192490997125311" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111192490997125311"></div><p><strong>Henderson Fire: </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">3,260 acres, 85% contained. This was the largest of the fires that broke out. The Henderson fire began on Thursday afternoon near Camp Pendleton. The fire forced closures of north and southbound lanes of I-5 as it grew rapidly. All evacuation orders are now lifted.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111479851412832613" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111479851412832613"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 183715-1792370245286.png">Fire Outlook</h1><p>There is a <strong>Elevated</strong> risk for fire danger across portions of Northern California, Nevada, and Southeastern Oregon on Monday. A strong trough is dropping down the coast today, kicking up the winds in these locations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 073620-1792417058638.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p>

Tracey Anthony

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p>Across portions of the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be cool to start your Monday morning. There are widespread frost and freeze alerts for temperatures into the 30s.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185729-1792371454398.png">Ridge of high pressure builds back in by Wednesday, bringing temperatures back above average across the central U.S.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185752-1792371502912.png">Temperatures start to climb on Wednesday and will continue to stay warm through the work week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185829-1792371519268.png">It's not just the south, the north will climb well above normal too. Minneapolis will reach the 70s when temperatures should be under 60 by now.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185834-1792371541054.png">The longer-range outlook holds on to a higher confidence that temperatures will remain above normal through the end of October across a large portion of the country.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 190004-1792371633934.png">Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.</p>

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

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<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h1>Pacific Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season and looks to continue to create additional activity through the next week. Several systems could bring impacts to the United States. </span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Trudy </span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">is running into less favorable conditions for tropical intensification. This storm became a major hurricane on Friday, but it has since weakened to a tropical storm as it brushes the coast of Jalisco, Mexico.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 044154-1792406540647.png"></p><p>Another system is expected to form in the wake of Trudy, with the NHC giving it a high chance in the next week. This system looks to move WNW initially, but could curve back east in the long term.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 183515-1792370120834.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Pacific Staying Active

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Rob Bradley

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

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<p>Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Texas and Oklahoma over the past 3 days. This is tropical moisture out of the Eastern Pacific that is feeding into this heavy rain set-up. Heavy rain will stay a factor into Friday for many of these same areas. Flash flooding and ponding will be likely.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792105981174.png"></p><p>On Wednesday, a tornado was captured on video near Fort Stockton. Preliminary reports indicate this tornado caused some damage.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110471661556498786" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110471661556498786"></div><p></p><h1>Outlook &amp; Timing</h1><p>Even though there were no outlooks for severe, intense thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Friday morning for areas of West Texas. Rainfall rates could get over 1" per hour and lead to flooding conditions.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792106185285.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Threat</h1><p>With the added moisture from Simon in the Pacific, heavy rainfall rates appear likely at times through Friday. Rain could fall at more than 2 inches per hour in some areas overnight, with totals surpassing 3 inches in a few locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 063540-1792068465522.png">There is a <strong>moderate</strong> threat for heavy rain and flooding across portions of SW Texas, while the slight risk encompasses much of west Texas into Southern Oklahoma.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792106287609.png"></p><p>Tune in to WeatherNation for your top weather headlines. Your full Central Regional Forecast can always be found :30 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

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Sometimes there may not be a sure bet on who will win the Kentucky Derby, but this year's odds on rain are just about a lock!

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Expect rain to be falling at post time, scheduled for 6:50 p.m. Eastern Saturday. With recent rainy conditions and more forecast, the track should be quite muddy. The rain will be due to a slow-moving area of low pressure traversing the Ohio River Valley region. The latest forecast is showing the rain to get heavier through the afternoon hours Saturday. Our only hope for drier weather is if the rain will move out and finish sooner, rather than later.

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Even around the post time for the Kentucky Derby Saturday, it still looks quite wet. All of that yellow and orange shows the heavy rain. Right now, 0.50-1.00" of rain is forecast on just Saturday alone! The heaviest time frame for rain will be between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. Saturday. Wind will be light.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier

Odds In Favor Of A Muddy Kentucky Derby

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

SETUPAn upper-level low is in the process of

Pattern Change for the West This Week

Looking ahead through this week, a big low pr

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

Across portions of the Ohio Valley through th

Tropics: Pacific Staying Active

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Te