Kevin Schneider

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Flash flooding continues to hit the Southeast hard - especially Florida. A trough of low pressure is still spinning in parts of the southeast, keeping the rain chances nearby. A stationary storm sat and rained over the same spot, on Sanibel Island, for much of Sunday morning. That efficient tropical rain added up to over a foot of rain by the time the weekend was done. Florida is normally a tad more resilient to fresh water flooding, but nowhere can handle that much rain. It led to scenes reminiscent of a landfalling tropical system Sunday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/VON_081025_RSE_TREASURE ISLAND, FL_EARLIER SHOT IN THE DAY OF CARS DRIVING THROUGH FLOODING_TW_@TOUTANT2001_DW_E081025-1754918906992.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast</h1>As the upper-level trough with the tropical moisture moves north, rounds of storms are expected, with the heaviest rain possible from Florida out to the coasts of the Carolinas and eventually farther west toward the Panhandle and Mobile.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer se futurecast-1754944359239.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 163246-1754865221448.png">The risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding shifts to the Gulf Coast on Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer se exess rain monday-1754872634389.jpg">Tune into the eastern regional forecast :10 past the hour for more details.

Chris Tomer

Over a Foot of Rain Falls in Southwest Florida

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<h1>Tropical Storm Erin</h1>A well-defined area of low pressure is now moving through the Cabo Verde Islands. With winds up to 45 mph, the National Hurricane Center has named this system Tropical Storm Erin. This is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde islands. Erin should expect modest intensity growth through midweek as it quickly moves west across the Atlantic.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 144723-1754945256494.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 082416-1754922268113.png">FORECAST FACTORS</h2>Models keep the center of circulation strong on this system despite the dry air, though it may be more of a struggle than the model below depicts (GFS). The dry air should thin some during the mid-week time frame as the wave moves through the MDR toward the Caribbean.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/erin dust-1754923032324.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As it moves through the warm, primed 80°+ sea surface temperatures, it will likely intensify to major hurricane status late week. Around the same time, the same ridge of high pressure will migrate northeast of Erin which could start a turn to the north.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 090741-1754924870516.png"><h3>Is this coming to the United States?</h3>Still too soon to know - what it looks like after formation will be telling, along with the couple of steering features towards the end of the week. Still a good chance that this doesn't affect any land masses directly, but not a guarantee. This would be a good week to fill any holes in your hurricane prep plan.In short, we've got a lot of season ahead of us, so don't let your guard down!RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-issues-final-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast</a>Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been off to a slow start the 2025 season. Before Dexter formed, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic was less than 15% of normal. Dexter more than doubled this stat, but it's still less than 30% of a typical year, even though we may be ahead of schedule when it comes to named storms. That being said, the bulk of seasonal activity is still ahead of us, with 89% of the annual energy occurring after the first week of August.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 061906-1754742246037.png"> Stay with WeatherNation for the latest tropical updates.

Administrator

Tropical Storm Erin Forms in the Atlantic

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Get a blanket and find some dark skies! One of the most prolific meteor showers of the year will peak during the upcoming week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER PERSEID-1754872084317.jpg">The Perseid Meteor Shower typically reaches a peak during the second week of August as the Earth moves through the debris field left by Comet Swift-Tuttle, which makes a trip through the solar system once every 133 years, last visiting the inner-solar system in 1992. Debris left by the comet dives through the Earth's atmosphere to create the beautiful meteor shower we expect. 2025 isn't expected to be the best year to see the meteors, unfortunately, as the waning gibbous moon will rise in the evening, washing out any faint meteors that may have been seen under a new moon. Ideal conditions can produce 50-100 meteors per hour, but with the brightness from the moon, expect 20-50 under dark skies away from city lights.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 052401-1754829026071.png"><h2>A Pair of Planets</h2>Another fun astronomical event will be gracing the morning skies through much of this week - the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER PERSIED 2-1754872142561.jpg">These planets will appear to be right next to each other in the morning sky, even through they're still millions of miles apart! They will appear closest together Tuesday morning, with only about 1° of separation between them.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 052347-1754829006824.png">WILL THE WEATHER COOPERATE</h1>Clouds could hinder many in the east Tuesday night. But many will have a decent shot at seeing the skies.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer perseids satellite-1754944442441.jpg">

Perseid Meteor Shower Peaks Tuesday Night - How to Watch

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Almost a foot of rain fell in a short amount of time in southeast Wisconsin. Saturday night into Sunday morning, some areas neighboring Milwaukee saw 5-8 inches of rain, with some localized spots surpassing 9 inches! <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1954656501143920718" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1954656501143920718"></div>That was complicated by another round of rain on Sunday, but thankfully that round was just far enough west to avoid a repeat incident. By the time the rain came to an end on Sunday, some areas were pushing a FOOT of rain. This far north is quite impressive to pick up that much rain - this was the second-most rain Milwaukee picked up over a 2 day stretch. Ever. Not just for the day - that record was obliterated<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 071226-1754918255019.png">All of that rain had to go somewhere, and area creeks swole past records too. The old record on the Milwaukee River was about 10 and a half feet was surpassed early Sunday morning as all of the water ran off.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 071242-1754918348970.png">The good news? The extended forecast at least looks pretty quiet. A shot at storms on Tuesday could bring some gusty winds with them, but the flooding threat appears limited. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-11 072026-1754918473906.png">

Historic Flooding Inundates Milwaukee Over the Weekend

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Brittany Lockley

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Thursday, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season">NOAA issued an update</a> to their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Although their numbers have adjusted down slightly, their predictions continue to foresee an above average season. This comes on the heels of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf">Colorado State University releasing its final forecast</a> for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday. The forecast team at CSU, led by meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, kept their predictions the same as July. For August, they are stuck with 16 named storms overall, with eight of those predicted to be hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.&nbsp;It is important to note that both the NOAA and CSU forecasts include the four name storms that have already formed in the Atlantic (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter). Climatologically, around August 10 the rate at which storms form and grow accelerates quickly through the peak of the season around September 11.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1953109057427939468" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1953109057427939468"></div>The reason why the forecast has not changed much, or has gone down slightly since the April, is the uncertainty across the tropics. While sea surface temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific are still warm, and this tends to support storm formation, upper-level winds over the Caribbean have been unusually hostile during June and July. This atmospheric setup typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic basin.&nbsp;<blockquote>“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.&nbsp;</blockquote>RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/an-area-to-monitor-in-the-atlantic">Atlantic Waking Up, Eastern Pacific Staying Active</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110050-1754499664701.png">The driving factor behind the above-average forecast remains the exceptionally warm waters across the eastern and central Atlantic Basin. Combined with a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a state that neither strongly inhibits nor enhances storm activity, these conditions could still favor a more active season.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 105940-1754499600405.png">Yet, forecasters are closely watching high levels of wind shear in the Caribbean, a phenomenon involving shifts in wind direction and speed with height. This shear is known to disrupt storm development. &nbsp;CSU also warns that the U.S. coastline faces an above-average risk of at least one major hurricane making landfall this season, a reminder that even in uncertain years, coastal residents should remain vigilant.&nbsp;<blockquote>"No two storms are alike. Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”&nbsp;said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110039-1754499698410.png">With the arrival of August, the Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most active stretch, which typically peaks around September 10. The pattern is starting to get more active in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dexter is still making waves (literally) in the Atlantic, and there are two additional areas to watch in the central Atlantic and off the Southeast coast.&nbsp;The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, leaving several more months of potential activity ahead.&nbsp;Tune into WeatherNation for the latest Tropical updates.

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Up to 10 inches of rain created flash flooding around Milwaukee between Saturday night and Sunday morning. This was a major event.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER MIDWEST FLOOD REPORTS-1754872277295.jpg">The Milwaukee River crested at Major Flood Stage breaking it's record crest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/TOMER MIDWEST MILWAUKEE RIVER-1754872310500.jpg"><h1>Threat Continues, Shifts to Flooding</h1>The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is expecting additional severe storms today along the front from northern Michigan to Kansas. Damaging winds are the main concern but large hail is possible, too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer midwest svr tonight-1754878043823.jpg">Scattered storms are expected to continue, flaring up with the most activity through the late afternoon into the evening hours. The overnights could be packed with heavy rain as well as MCS (Meso-scale Convection System) potential lingers in these areas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer midwest futurecast-1754872412067.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>In addition to the severe threat, a heavy rain and flood risk will continue! Milwaukee recorded over 5 inches of rain on Saturday and there's more rain on the way. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday for some areas between Kansas into Wisconsin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer midwest watches-1754849252952.jpg">Models are showing several areas for rainfall totals over five inches and flooding could occur.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer midwest rain forecast-1754872465890.jpg">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates throughout the next few days on-air and online.

Severe Storms & Flooding Target the Midwest

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Monsoon driven thunderstorms are likely Sunday night and again Monday afternoon across Eastern Colorado, Eastern New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Northwest Texas.<h1>Severe Outlooks</h1>The risk through Sunday night includes large hail and a 2% probability of tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer rockies svr tonight-1754878148536.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer rockies tor risk tonight-1754878196955.jpg"><h1>Monday's Severe Weather Risk</h1>Afternoon thunderstorms develop off the Rockies and slide southeast into Northwest Texas. A marginal risk of severe weather is likely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tomer rockies svr risk monday-1754861053256.jpg"><h1>Forecast</h1>Afternoons look active the next few days as storms initiate over the mountains before moving east from the late afternoon through the evening. Storms may persist overnight in the Plains, feeding on warm air and gulf moisture.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/08101-1754865315095.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Downpours could be heavy enough to create flash flooding from Arizona to Kansas. Avoid low lying areas if a flash flood warning is issued for your area, or seek higher ground if you're in a flood prone location.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-10 163524-1754865327590.png">

More Storms Along the Front Range

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The severe weather risk will shift east today for parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  A Marginal risk of severe weather in the forecast for cities like Waco, Houston and Beaumont.   Here is the very latest.
<h2>Severe Outlook</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-90425 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/newatl.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Here is today's severe outlook...isolated severe storms are in the forecast for areas like Abilene, Waco, Austin and Houston.
<h2>Severe Weather Risks</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-90426 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture2-14.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90427 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture3-13.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90428 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture4-9.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will all be possible later today.  The hail forecast has the lowest coverage area of all the severe risks.  Nonetheless, we will need to watch out for all of these severe weather risks during the afternoon and evening.
<h2>Timing</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-90429 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture5-9.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90430 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture6-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90431 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture7-3.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90432 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Joe1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90433 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Joe2.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Here is the latest timing of today's severe thunderstorm chances.  Active weather will be in the forecast all morning and all afternoon with the highest chance of severe weather being later in the day.

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WeatherNation will continue to follow this severe weather risk and update you with the very latest.

&nbsp;

Meteorologist Patrick Crawford

&nbsp;

Saturday Severe Weather Update

Severe Outlook

Severe Weather Risks

Timing

Over a Foot of Rain Falls in Southwest Florida

Flash flooding continues to hit the Southeast

Tropical Storm Erin Forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm ErinA well-defined area of low

Perseid Meteor Shower Peaks Tuesday Night - How to Watch

Get a blanket and find some dark skies! One o

Historic Flooding Inundates Milwaukee Over the Weekend

Almost a foot of rain fell in a short amount

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Thursday, NOAA issued an update to their outl

Severe Storms & Flooding Target the Midwest

Up to 10 inches of rain created flash floodin

More Storms Along the Front Range

Monsoon driven thunderstorms are likely Sunda