WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h3>KEY MESSAGES:</h3><ul><li>Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding with numerous landslides for Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba</li><li>Devastating winds for Jamaica</li><li>Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves for Jamaica and Cuba</li><li>Watching for the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Tue-Wed</li></ul>All eyes are on the Caribbean as we are now tracking the 13th named storm of the 2025 season - Melissa. In fact, we've been tracking Melissa and its origins as a tropical wave for more than a week now, and we could be watching it for another week still! Melissa has rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph, a pressure of 913 mb, and is&nbsp;slowly moving west at 3 mph.Melissa will hardly move, bringing catastrophic and life-threatening rainfall and mudslides to Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Over a couple of feet of rain is possible for Hispaniola (Haiti &amp; the DR) and Jamaica.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1761557474776.png">Melissa's lack of movement is due to its position between two ridges of high pressure in the mid-levels, while in the upper-levels is keeping Melissa in the Caribbean for now before picking up some steam next week. The National Hurricane Center has relayed some intense key messages for Hurricane Melissa, warning of life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through mid-week.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1982557802800574545" src="https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982557802800574545"></div>The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows little forward movement over the next few days. Slow westward motion is expected through Monday morning, before turning north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, according to the NHC.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web3-1761557529544.png">Hurricane warnings (in red) have been issued for Cuba, Jamaica, with a few tropical storm warnings also in effect for portions of Haiti and Cuba. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of these conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web5-1761557563856.png">Sea surface temperatures remain warm across the Caribbean, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-23 060209-1761220940859.png">As many of our recently back-loaded tropical seasons have reminded us, October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Kevin Schneider

Melissa is Rapidly Intensifying in the Caribbean, Catastrophic Flooding Likely

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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GAUTIER, MS - Earlier Sunday morning, tornado warnings swept through the Gulf Coast, and this person was caught in the debris of the tornado in Mississippi. The severe threat continues through tonight across the Gulf Coast as this frontal boundary keeps moving through.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1982498399602786785" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1982498399602786785"></div>According to the National Weather Service in New Orleans, a survey team will be heading out on Monday morning to survey the damage that Sunday morning's storms brought. The NWS has also encouraged anyone in the region to send over their reports to help with their surveys as well.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1982508518684209425" src="https://x.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1982508518684209425"></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-26 163627-1761518716166.png">Most of the storms from Sunday sat along a warm front and remained as supercells. Through the overnight hours, storms are expected to cluster together, lessening the tornado threat but maintaining the wind, hail, and heavy rain threat into Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-26 east-1761531893312.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy rain is also going to be a concern along the system, and with another batch of rain moving in by late Tuesday, the flood threat will continue into the work week as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-26 202400-1761531846617.png">For more details on how this rain may influence your forecast temperatures, be sure to join us at :10 past the hour, where we detail your east regional forecast.

Mississippi Tornado Caught on Camera

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WEST - A series of atmospheric rivers has been responsible for wet, windy, and snowy weather in the northwestern U.S. This moisture continues to push inland through Monday. Another front is likely to move onshore as we head into Monday and Tuesday, but will mostly be focused on the state of Washington.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-27 04-58-13-1761562723943.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Winter weather alerts remain in place for the snowfall in the mountains we're expecting from this. Between 4-8" of snowfall is likely through Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1761562533948.png">Another possible dump of snow could come in with the next front, which could lead to snow totals measured by feet in the mountains through mid-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1761562637012.png">Be sure to join us at:50 past the hour for more details during your west regional forecast.

Adrian Hernandez

Heavy Rain and Snow Continue for The Northwest

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As our first low-pressure system bringing rain to the northeast exits, another area of low pressure will trek across the country, bringing in winds, cooler air, and rainfall.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-26 set-up-1761520578479.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There are already excessive rainfall outlooks for portions of the Mid-South and the Northeast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-26 171837-1761520741134.png">Although this system moves through the Plains first, the heaviest totals are likely to occur as we start to tap into more Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Our in-house forecast models bring the heaviest rainfall into portions of Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-26 170636-1761520809404.png">Be sure to join of live on WeatherNation for more details!

Next Round of Rain for the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving over the northern U.S. since early this week, bringing along with it gusty winds, scattered showers, and cooler temperatures.As the upper-level trough and surface front move over the Great Lakes, they'll continue to usher in cooler air above warmer sea surface temperatures. The contrast between the two can enhance lake-effect showers. It's not quite cold enough for lake-effect snow with this system. These off-and-on showers, which have been dragging over the Great Lakes, will begin to wind down as we head into the weekend.With cold temperatures also being ushered in, temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s from the Great Lakes down to the Carolinas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 141852-1761337221612.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 142002-1761337234549.png">As a result, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued again for Saturday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 141435-1761337300431.png">For more details on what the forecast looks like once this low moves out, be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation, which streams 24/7.

Jesse Kelley

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, and Cooler Air

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

Jackie Brown

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k overnight-1760926909056.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As for severe weather, not much is expected behind this front. The SPC only calling for general thunderstorms in the forecast for some of the coastal northeast cities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1760955877378.png"> With regards to rainfall, the northeast is not totally out of the woods yet. We still have a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956041292.png"> The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201910-1760926771887.png">In fact, on Sunday night, a tornado warning happened just south of the D.C. area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201521-1760926794802.png"><h1>Total Accumulation</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956184805.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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A cold front moving through the Northern U.S. will bring the chance for severe storms from the Plains to the Great Lakes.  All modes of severe weather will be in play for these areas.  Here is the very latest severe forecast.
<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-109315 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/7day1-14.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109316 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/7day-10.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Expect scattered to numerous severe storms today from Kansas to Michigan.  Areas under the Enhanced Risk could see hail up to 2" in diameter.
<h1>Severe Risks</h1>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-109317 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/7day3-8.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109318 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/7day2-12.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109319 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/7day4-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Hail, winds and tornadoes will all be possible, but the highest risk of tornadoes will be over Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska.  Cities like St. Joseph and Kansas City will have to be aware and have a plan in place for today's severe storms.
<h1>Forecast</h1>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-109324 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/Bomb-12.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109325 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/camp-fire-update-12.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109326 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/Camp-fire-12.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-109327 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/Capture-14.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Here is the latest timing with today's storms.  One ingredient that will be needed for storms to pop will be the daytime heating.  This means the risk of strong to severe storms will start in the afternoon and last through the evening.  Please be prepared to take cover if you are in any of these places under a risk of severe storms.  WeatherNation will be covering today's severe storms all afternoon and evening.

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Scattered to Numerous Severe Storms Tuesday from the Great Lakes to the Missouri Valley

Severe Outlook

Severe Risks

Forecast

Melissa is Rapidly Intensifying in the Caribbean, Catastrophic Flooding Likely

KEY MESSAGES:Catastrophic and life-threatenin

Mississippi Tornado Caught on Camera

GAUTIER, MS - Earlier Sunday morning, tornado

Heavy Rain and Snow Continue for The Northwest

WEST - A series of atmospheric rivers has bee

Next Round of Rain for the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast

As our first low-pressure system bringing rai

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, and Cooler Air

GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

October has been relatively quiet in terms of